277
FXUS63 KIWX 101120
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
620 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue to shift south through the early
  morning and dry conditions are expected everywhere by late
  morning.

- Another band of lake effect snow is expected this afternoon
  and evening. 3-6" of additional accumulation is expected for
  areas near Lake Michigan.

- A few flurries are possible on Tuesday but no accumulation or
  impact is anticipated.

- The rest of the week will be mainly dry with moderating
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lake enhanced snow event evolving largely as expected early this
morning. Recent reports have been fairly sparse but received a few
from the South Bend area earlier with 6-8" and they have likely
gotten several more inches since then. Totals likely approaching 15"
in some isolated spots from LaPorte to South Bend. Meanwhile a
fairly healthy fgen response in the I-69 corridor is likely
producing totals of 1-3" there but reports in that area have been
limited. All of this activity will continue to shift S/SW through
the morning and exit our area entirely shortly after sunrise.
Expansion of advisory southward that was issued late last evening
based on coordination with neighbors will proceed as planned though
amounts and impacts will remain limited. All other headlines will
proceed as planned for now as well (read more below).

As has been discussed, a sizable lull in snow is expected during the
late morning hours today. Precip will likely exit our CWA entirely
with some peeks of sun possible but conditions change rapidly by
this afternoon. Very impressive dominant band currently setting up
over Chicago will swing back into our area as flow backs northwest.
Backing flow always disrupts lake effect bands to some degree with
eventually less fetch and loss of Lake Superior connection.
Inversion heights also begin to drop but are still very impressive
with convective depths still over 10 kft. One thing that has changed
slightly is that hi-res models now show this band anchoring to the
east side of the lake a bit more, likely due to lake-induced
pressure trough and enhanced convergence as flow remains a bit more
northerly than previously expected. Unfortunately this means the
counties hit hardest overnight will be set up for another round of
snow (less than overnight but still could see some 6+" totals of new
snow). Have adjusted PoP`s, QPF, and Snow accordingly and going with
a conservative 3-6" of additional accumulation for now. Cass County
Michigan will be in the cross-hairs for some of the highest totals
and a warning may very well be needed there. However, prefer to let
the day shift make that call with the benefit of morning snow
reports and additional hi-res guidance. Previously adjusted end time
of 06Z still looks good as snow should be tapering off by then as
flow backs westerly, inversion heights crash, and much drier air
impedes instability.

A warm front is still slated to swing through the area on Tue and
this could bring some additional, very light snow. This front will
be fighting a lot of dry air through the column with limited
moisture return and a very stable profile. Added some slight chance
PoP`s as models do spit out a few flurries or sprinkles but no
accumulation or impacts is expected. Dry conditions then expected
Wed-Thu with slowly moderating temps. A stronger warm front lifts
through the region late Fri into Sat and may bring a few light rain
showers. More appreciable impact of this will be highs back to
around 60F for the weekend though. Rain then becomes likely along
the associated cold front due to arrive late Sun. Models still
showing a high degree of spread during this time though so don`t get
hung up on the details as they will likely change in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Light snow will continue to shift south this morning and expect
dry conditions at KFWA by 12Z with just some lingering MVFR
stratus for an hour or two thereafter. Otherwise expect VFR at
both sites through early afternoon. By then, backing winds will
send a strong lake effect snow band back into the area,
impacting KSBN first then KFWA. There is still some uncertainty
in where exactly the band tracks and exactly how strong it will
be but at least brief IFR conditions can be expected some time
this evening. LES exits late tonight with VFR returning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for INZ005-013-
     015-116-216.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
     INZ012-014-103-104-203-204.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ020-
     022>024-032.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ078.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD