419
FXUS63 KIWX 210411
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1211 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances continue through Monday afternoon,
  dwindling towards the evening.

- Cooler and trending drier through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Opted to extend the flash flood watch until 2 am EDT for areas
further south and east given expected rainfall through late tonight-
which is where most of the rain has fallen over the past week and
impacts linger. Additional totals of 1-2" are possible through
Monday morning as a shortwave or two move through, which could
exacerbate any flooding in these areas. Much of the high res
develops heavier rainfall within some more convective elements this
evening, however as of this writing we are pretty meager in terms of
heavy rain. Expect a period of isentropic ascent to continue through
at least the evening as a low pressure system develops along the
stationary front with this first shortwave. Still have decent warm
cloud depth, pwats around 2" and a LLJ of around 25-30 knots, so
heavy rain is still a possibility. Thunderstorms are also possible.

Otherwise, expect a drying trend late Monday into the rest of the
week, with mainly intermittent low chances (20-30%) as we sit on the
periphery of upper level ridge/upper low, with surface high pressure
below (particularly Thursday into the weekend). It will be more fall
like, with highs in the 60s, low 70s and then lows falling into the
upper 40s, 50s. By the weekend, we warm up into the low-mid 70s
(warmest Sun).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Drier east-northeast low level flow expected through the period
with primarily MVFR cigs this morning trending high MVFR to low
VFR this afternoon-tonight. Weak cyclonic flow aloft may allow a
few showers or drizzle to flare up today otherwise, best
chances at KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Steinwedel