034
FXUS63 KIWX 081215
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
815 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity on the increase through Thursday, with
  highs in the mid-upper 80s and 90s and lows in the 60s, low-
  mid 70s. Heat indices on Wednesday and Thursday will be around
  100 degrees.

- Daily chances (generally 40-80 percent) for showers and
  storms this week. SPC has portions of our area in a marginal
  risk for severe weather late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
  night, with damaging winds the main threat. Severe weather is
  also possible on Thursday. Confidence is low to medium.

- Lower chances (20-50 percent) for showers and storms continue
  through the weekend, with temps cooling into the low to mid
  80s by Sunday and decreasing humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

In general, we`ll have increasing heat and humidity through
Thursday, along with the better chances(40-80 percent)for
precipitation. Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s and low-mid 90s
Wed/Thu, with heat indices nearing 100 degrees. Convective activity
could limit the high temps more than what is forecast, but either
way it will be pretty uncomfortable outside. Prepare accordingly!

Dry air at the surface overnight kept precipitation chances to a
minimum and confined to the southwestern portion of the CWA (near
White County, IN). A the moment, there is no precipitation in our
area as the better moisture transport/advection is to our west in
the Chicago area...hence the ongoing convection there as of this
writing.

SPC has a portion of our forecast area in a marginal risk for strong-
severe storms on Day 3 (Wednesday into Thu AM). The main threat with
this period would be damaging winds. Suspect the threat will be
confined to very late afternoon/early eve (west near Lake MI) and
spreading eastward through the overnight. The area within the
marginal is approximately along/north of US 24--especially
along/west of I 69 (even further west is better). Primary threat
would be damaging winds, maybe some large hail depending on the
storm mode. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are always concerns as
well. Confidence is lower for this as the time of arrival could end
up being around/after 8 pm EDT (vs late afternoon), which is
typically less supportive of a severe environment. However, we do
have mid level lapse rates around 7C/km a few areas of 8C/km
depending on the model), which could favor the stronger/severe
threat.

Thursday afternoon into Thursday night looks to be more favorable
given stronger upper level dynamics and a surface cold front moving
into a hot, humid, unstable environment. Mid level lapse rates
continue to be once again around 7C/Km with a few closer to
8C/Km. Confidence is medium for now, with SPC carrying much of
our area in the day 5 outlook period with 15 percent probability
(no risk assigned, just a probability at that range). All
hazards are on the table with this system.

Friday into the weekend will be slightly cooler and less humid, with
highs in the low-mid 80s by Sunday. Chances (20-50 percent) for
showers and thunderstorms persist each day, with the driest day
probably Friday (20-25 percent) and wettest on Sunday 30-50 percent).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 757 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions to start the period, with brief dips to MVFR/IFR
this afternoon and evening as showers and storms move through
the terminals. More persistent MVFR to IFR conditions towards
the end of the period as a system moves through the area.
Ceilings could drop towards the 400-600 ft level, but for now
only have them dropping to 700 ft for now.

Regarding shower/thunderstorm activity, timing/specific location
continues to be difficult to pin down, but handled with prob30s
until convection begins to develop on radar. For now have most
activity from 19z-21z start time, and persisting into the
overnight hours.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD