644
FXUS64 KJAN 022333
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
533 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy light frost is possible across much of the forecast
    area Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Through Monday:Northwest flow aloft will continue tonight as our CWA
remains on the back side of a closed low dropping over the southeast
states. Our flow aloft will become near zonal Monday as the closed
low moves farther east of our region and ridging aloft moves over
our CWA from the west. Latest surface analysis had a >1024mb high
just to our northwest. This surface high will become centered over
our CWA by sunrise. With a near calm wind and clear skies tonight,
strong radiational of our cool dry airmass will lead to patchy fog
and areas of frost by morning. Coldest temperatures and greatest
frost potential is over northeast. The surface high will shift east
of Mississippi Monday resulting in return flow that will help
temperatures recover and top out near normal. /22/

Monday Night through next Sunday...

Not much to talk about in the long term period. Model consensus
from both the GFS and the Euro continue to show a >1020mb sfc
high hovering over our area Monday night. Ridging becomes dominant
heading into Tuesday leading to warmer weather across the
southeast CONUS. Afternoon highs will peak in the 70s with lows
dipping into the 50s. Quiet conditions will prevail across our
area through the late week. Future guidance continues to show the
ridge flattening by Friday in advance of a shortwave. This could
lead to a brief return of scattered rain showers across our CWA
with slightly higher rain chances (25-30%) across north MS heading
into the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. The only exception may be a few patchy areas of
fog that could briefly impact sites early Monday morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       36  66  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      35  67  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     36  67  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   37  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       37  68  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    38  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     35  66  40  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/22/CR/