411
FXUS64 KJAN 160118 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
718 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Temperatures will be warmer than normal with dry conditions
    through Wednesday.

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late this week as
    a frontal boundary pushes into the region.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Rest of tonight...

Quiet night is on track again across the region. Evening upper air
analysis indicates upper ridge slowly migrating eastward over
towards the ArkLaTex, with 850mb low-level ridge axis building
over the eastern Gulf and flattening. Evening synoptic/RAP analysis
and water vapor imagery indicate upper low into southwest CA to
Baja Peninsula while longwave trough is centered over the northern
CONUS. This is keeping northerly flow aloft and quiet conditions
around. A weak dry frontal boundary will slip in the Hwy 82
corridor during the overnight hours, helping winds shift from
southerly to northerly around daybreak. Otherwise, another night
of patchy fog to very sparse areas of patchy dense fog can`t be
ruled out in the Hwy 84 to Hwy 98 corridors. This is supported by
more aggressive HREF dense fog probs and duration (4-6hrs)
typically favors some patchy dense fog. There may be a need to
introduce at the very least a Limited in for dense fog in local
hazard graphics, but will see if guidance trends more aggressive
before adding this. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Through late next week:

Upper ridging through much of the period will keep weather quiet and
promote much above normal temperatures, about 10-15 degrees (JAN
normal high is 68 for reference) with temperatures in the low to
even mid 80s by mid week. A weak dry cold front will sag into
northern areas Sunday night and will allow slightly cooler overnight
lows Monday morning in GTR (mid 40s). Thereafter, low temperatures
will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Our next rainmaker looks to be
late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty regarding the
severity of storms with some limitations, but shear and forcing
appears ample. The question will be instability, which the timing
near diurnal min does not favor robust instability. The likeliest
scenario at this time looks to be a forced line that pushes across
the area along the cold front. It is slow to depart the area, so
there is a chance that some reinvigoration could occur for the east
and southeast areas Friday afternoon with daytime heating, however
by this point, main upper forcing is departing the area. Some areas,
particularly west I-55, could see enough decent rainfall over a
short period that flash flooding cannot be ruled out. An anomalous
plume of moisture (2 inch PWAT), as well as deep warm cloud layer,
should lead to efficient rainfall rates. There is also the chance
for training storms along the boundary, so this may need to be
watched closely. This potential event still has a lot of questions
and uncertainty, so will continue to update in future issuances.
/SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will exist at most sites overnight, with some MVFR
to IFR flight categories due to BR or localized patchy dense fog
at HBG, PIB and possible at HEZ. Added MVFR to IFR vsby between
16/09-13Z Sunday at HBG and PIB, with temporary drop (LIFR) psbl
during this time at PIB. Southerly winds will be the norm, generally
around or less than 10mph. A front will bring a northerly shift
in the Hwy 82 corridor just after daybreak, around noon in the I-20
corridor and late afternoon in the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      56  80  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     58  80  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   56  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       58  81  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    60  76  52  75 /   0  10   0  10
Greenwood     59  78  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SAS20/DC