159
FXUS64 KJAN 080518 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1118 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...


  - A cold front will bring rain chances tonight and this will be
    followed by dry and seasonably cold air that persists through
    early this week.

  - After a warm-up during the mid week, we`ll see significantly
    colder temperatures return Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tonight through next week: A broad longwave trough over the
central/eastern CONUS will continue to be the primary driver for
weather in our region, resulting in mostly dry weather with
seasonable temperatures. A weak shortwave trough and associated
cold front crossing the region tonight will bring a quick round
of light to moderate shower activity with total rainfall amounts
under a half inch on average.

Behind the departing system, strong cold advection is expected,
resulting in seasonably cold conditions going from Monday into
Tuesday. Low stratus, which was a forecasting challenge in the
last cold advection event, will once again be a challenge in the
next couple of days as the low level thermal trough lingers over
the area. Forecast confidence in the temperature ranges is lower
than usual because of this, and the forecast tends to reflect a
scenario with less stratus. So don`t be surprised if is cloudier
than expected with smaller daily ranges. Going into mid week, the
thermal trough will exit our region, and this will allow
temperatures to warm to significantly above normal levels for the
first time since before Thanksgiving.

Friday into next weekend: We`re monitoring the potential for a
more significant surge of cold air by the end of next week. Global
models continue to suggest there will be a stronger surface high
that develops and surges southward through the Plains and MS
Valley, but with ensemble mean cool anomalies being centered to
our north east, very subtle shifts in the geometry of longwave
trough pattern could bring significant temperature differences, so
forecast confidence in how impactful this may be is on the low
side. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low stratus and light to moderate rain over parts of the forecast
are are causing widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings with variable
visibility. Winds will be from the north through the period.
Expect improving ceilings between 18Z to 21Z Monday as stratus
deck thins and mixes out. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       43  53  31  57 /  90   0   0   0
Meridian      41  54  29  56 /  90   0   0   0
Vicksburg     41  52  32  57 /  80   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   47  58  33  60 /  90   0   0   0
Natchez       43  53  32  59 /  80   0   0   0
Greenville    39  47  31  53 /  80   0   0   0
Greenwood     40  50  30  55 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/NF