Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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057 FXUS62 KJAX 151813 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 213 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf East coast sea breeze has pushed through the First Coast counties of NE FL producing a few showers near the western Flagler and eastarn Putnam county border this early afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will continue to push westward toward I-75 meeting up with the Gulf seabreeze where showers will be scattered to numerous the later part of the afternoon. Surface high pressure over the OH/TN River Valley this afternoon will transition to just offshore of New England on Sunday. This will allow a continued easterly flow across the region, with slightly higher winds on Sunday, with breezy conditions on the beaches. Very simiar scenario as today where most favorable area for convection will near the I-75 corridor where the east coast sea breeze is anticipated to meet up with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze for best moisture convergence. A mainly clear night is forecast for tonight. High res models do show some pathcy fog near the Altmaha River Basin during the pre-dawn hours. Above normal temperatures are forecast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with mid 90s common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the area tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Easterly winds will begin to build on Sunday as high pressure builds near the Carolina`s, and with a dissipating front over Georgia/South Carolina, enough moisture will be in place for an increase in precipitation potential. The east coast sea breeze will be able to make it`s way westward, with the I-75 corridor being highlighted for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 80s along the coast, and 90s inland. Similar high temperatures forecast for Monday, with scattered shower and thunderstorm potential continuing as onshore winds of 15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas persist. Mild low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights, staying in the 70s area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Each day during this period will have a very similar forecast. High pressure to the northeast will promote elevated onshore flow, keeping high temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 80s, with inland highs reaching the lower 90s, close to near normal temperatures. Showers over the Atlantic will move onshore, with a slight uptick in coverage each day, and the east coast sea breeze will be able to push inland in the afternoons. Scattered to numerous showers expected each day, with highest thunderstorm chances in the afternoon/evenings over NE FL with sea breeze interactions and ample diurnal heating. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Convection has develop inland near western Flagler, eastern Putnam and SW St. John`s counties early this afternoon. The seabreeze will push this convection westward and expand in areal coverage as it moves toward the I75 corridor in the mid afternoon. KGNV is expected to be affected by the afternoon convection. Any convection that does develop will diminish this evening, with prevailing VFR conditions forecast for Tonight and early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then shift to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible around the middle of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend for NE FL and SE GA beaches, potential for high risk early this week as onshore winds build. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Easterly flow will prevail through the weekend and much of next week with high pressure to our north tranitioning to well northeast of the region. This weekend the best chances of convection will occur along the I-75 corridor where scattered to numerous showers are anticipated. High dispersions will reside near the Altamaha River, interior southeast Georgia and northern Suwanne Valley Sunday afternoon. Min RH values across interior SE GA Sunday afternoon will be in the 35 to 40 percent range during peak heating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 95 72 93 / 10 10 0 20 SSI 77 88 78 87 / 10 10 10 40 JAX 74 91 74 89 / 10 20 10 40 SGJ 74 89 77 88 / 10 40 20 50 GNV 73 92 71 92 / 20 60 10 40 OCF 73 92 72 92 / 20 80 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$