057
FXUS62 KJAX 151813
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East coast sea breeze has pushed through the First Coast counties
of NE FL producing a few showers near the western Flagler and
eastarn Putnam county border this early afternoon. The east coast
sea breeze will continue to push westward toward I-75 meeting up
with the Gulf seabreeze where showers will be scattered to
numerous the later part of the afternoon. Surface high pressure
over the OH/TN River Valley this afternoon will transition to just
offshore of New England on Sunday. This will allow a continued
easterly flow across the region, with slightly higher winds on
Sunday, with breezy conditions on the beaches. Very simiar
scenario as today where most favorable area for convection will
near the I-75 corridor where the east coast sea breeze is
anticipated to meet up with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze for best
moisture convergence. A mainly clear night is forecast for
tonight. High res models do show some pathcy fog near the Altmaha
River Basin during the pre-dawn hours. Above normal temperatures
are forecast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with mid 90s
common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the
area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly winds will begin to build on Sunday as high pressure
builds near the Carolina`s, and with a dissipating front over
Georgia/South Carolina, enough moisture will be in place for an
increase in precipitation potential. The east coast sea breeze
will be able to make it`s way westward, with the I-75 corridor
being highlighted for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 80s
along the coast, and 90s inland.

Similar high temperatures forecast for Monday, with scattered
shower and thunderstorm potential continuing as onshore winds of
15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas
persist. Mild low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights,
staying in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Each day during this period will have a very similar forecast.
High pressure to the northeast will promote elevated onshore flow,
keeping high temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 80s,
with inland highs reaching the lower 90s, close to near normal
temperatures. Showers over the Atlantic will move onshore, with a
slight uptick in coverage each day, and the east coast sea breeze
will be able to push inland in the afternoons. Scattered to
numerous showers expected each day, with highest thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon/evenings over NE FL with sea breeze
interactions and ample diurnal heating.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Convection has develop inland near western Flagler, eastern Putnam
and SW St. John`s counties early this afternoon. The seabreeze
will push this convection westward and expand in areal coverage as
it moves toward the I75 corridor in the mid afternoon. KGNV is
expected to be affected by the afternoon convection. Any
convection that does develop will diminish this evening, with
prevailing VFR conditions forecast for Tonight and early Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then shift
to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to
the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged
period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
possible around the middle of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend for NE FL and SE
GA beaches, potential for high risk early this week as onshore
winds build.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly flow will prevail through the weekend and much of next
week with high pressure to our north tranitioning to well
northeast of the region. This weekend the best chances of
convection will occur along the I-75 corridor where scattered to
numerous showers are anticipated. High dispersions will reside
near the Altamaha River, interior southeast Georgia and northern
Suwanne Valley Sunday afternoon. Min RH values across interior SE
GA Sunday afternoon will be in the 35 to 40 percent range during
peak heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  72  93 /  10  10   0  20
SSI  77  88  78  87 /  10  10  10  40
JAX  74  91  74  89 /  10  20  10  40
SGJ  74  89  77  88 /  10  40  20  50
GNV  73  92  71  92 /  20  60  10  40
OCF  73  92  72  92 /  20  80  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$