003
FXUS62 KJAX 071746
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Periods of Beneficial Rainfall through Today & Tonight.
  Isolated TStorms Possible South of I-10 Today. A Strong Storm
  is Possible over Marion, Putnam, and Flagler. Locally Heavy
  Rain at times

- Patchy to Areas of Fog this morning and late Tonight

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights

- Small Craft Advisory possible Monday Afternoon into early Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A messy, dreary, and wet day continues across northeast FL and
southeast GA as a stalled frontal zone remains fixed across north-
central FL. Modest isentropic ascent across the boundary will
increase a bit more as low-level jet streak pushes across the area
later this afternoon and evening. Along the stalled boundary, a weak
wave of low pressure has begun to develop over the northern Gulf,
which is acting to lift the portion of the boundary across FL
northward toward the southern zones. Cumulatively, this is a
beneficial and much-needed rain event which widespread rainfall and
storm totals between 1-3" will help with the recent drought
conditions.

That said, as the front begins to lift northward, there will be a
window of this afternoon and early evening where isolated
thunderstorms are possible, mainly across Marion, Putnam, and
Flagler counties where weak instability is expected amid favorable
deep shear. The question remains whether convection will develop and
effectively tap into the deep-layer shear. SPC has maintained a low-
end ("Marginal") risk of severe thunderstorm development given
forecasted low level helicity around 200 m2/s2 support for mildly
organized cellular development.

Overnight, rainfall will taper off as drying northwest flow behind
the incoming frontal passage funnels into the region delivering
another shot of cold air. As rainfall shifts away, patchy to areas
of fog may develop and become locally dense given the moist
conditions from the day and half of light rainfall. Lingering cloud
cover will keep lows in the upper 40s for southeast GA and mid-50s
for NE FL tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Weak troughing will remain across the area Monday. A few spotty
showers will remain Monday morning. The trough will move away Monday
night into Tuesday, as a ridge builds from the northwest. Clouds
will decrease Monday night due subsidence under ridge and drier
flow. Skies will trend clear on Tuesday. The high pressure ridge
will be overhead Tuesday night.

Temperatures Monday will have a broad range to due to location of
trough, with highs in the upper 50s near Alma, GA, to around 70 at
Ocala, FL. A wide range in temperatures is forecast again Monday
night, as a onshore flow along NE FL coast will keep readings milder
there. Lows Monday night will range from the middle 30s over SE GA,
to the upper 40s along the NE FL coast. A little patchy frost over
inland SE GA will be possible where the winds drop off. For Tuesday
highs will range from the middle 50s over SE GA, to the middle 60s
south of Gainesville, FL. With the position of the high, mainly
clear skies, and cold air mass in place, lows in the lower to mid
30s will be common across inland SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL.
Lows from KSSI to KGNV, and east will be in the lower to mid 40s. A
fairly widespread Frost event is expected Tuesday night for inland
SE GA, and Suwannee valley of NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High pressure ridge will sink south of the region Wednesday. A cold
front will move southeast across area Wednesday night. This front is
expected to move through dry. Weak high pressure will build again
Thursday. Another cold front will move through Friday into Saturday.
A few showers are expected with this passage. Strong high pressure
will build to the northwest Saturday night through Sunday.

Temperatures will be near to above normal through Friday, then below
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

No significant change in the forecasts with predominant LIFR low
stratus with passing stratiform showers and drizzle. Rain should
become more steady this afternoon after as a low drifts across
central FL. Thunderstorms are not expected at any terminals, except
potentially those across Marion or Flagler counties where an
isolated storm may develop early this evening. Otherwise, poor
flight conditions will prevail through the overnight with
improvements likely as a trailing cold front pushes through the
region bringing in drier air to break up the stratus after daybreak
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Rounds of showers and drizzle today while a stalled front is
situated to the south. A wave of low pressure will move across and
offshore tonight and drag a cold front through the waters behind it,
resulting in breezy northwest winds that will strengthen to Small
Craft Advisory levels Monday. Weak high pressure will then build
over the area Tuesday into Wednesday then shift southeast Thursday
as the next cold front approaches.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Monday
              NE FL Moderate Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low pressure system will move off to the east through Monday.
High pressure will build overhead Tuesday. The high will sink to
the south Wednesday, with a cold front sliding through
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will build Thursday. Another
frontal system will affect the region Friday into Saturday,
with high pressure building behind it for Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog Tonight.
Thunderstorm potential NE FL Today. Frost with a light Freeze inland
Tuesday night. An inland Freeze is expected Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  58  34  53 /  40  20   0   0
SSI  50  61  41  55 /  80  10   0   0
JAX  51  65  41  59 /  80  10   0   0
SGJ  56  67  49  62 /  90  20   0   0
GNV  55  68  42  64 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  58  70  44  65 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$