539
FXUS62 KJAX 021144
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
744 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip
  Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts at
  the Coast up to 30 mph to near 40 mph Today through Saturday

- Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend.
  St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL & Southeast GA Coasts &
  Portions of ICWW. Coastal Flood Advisory in Effect & Coastal
  Flood Watch in Effect

- Rain Chance Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of
  Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood
  Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Forecast on track as local Nor`easter conditions will increase and
spread northward from Flagler/St. Johns counties across the rest
of coastal NE FL this afternoon and into coastal SE GA tonight.
Strong NE winds sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts into the 30-40
mph will continue through tonight at Atlantic beachfront locations
with lesser breezy NE winds of 10-20G25-30 mph inland locations. A
wind advisory may need to be posted for portions of the Atlantic
coast for gusts over 40 mph, but models still trying to determine
where best pinched gradient will set-up, which actually may be
from JAX northward to Brunswick, GA along the SE GA coastal areas.
Locally heavy rainfall potential in any of the onshore moving
bands but previous drier period of weather and convergent bands
moving northward up the Atlantic Coast through tonight, will make
it hard to pinpoint any flood watches today, but will be more
likely into the upcoming weekend as rainfall totals add-up. Max
Temps will be at slightly below normal values with highs in the
lower 80s along the coast and middle 80s further inland.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A surge of northeasterly winds develops across the region as
strong high pressure ridging wedges down the eastern seaboard. An
inverted coastal trough sharpens forming scattered to numerous
showers with embedded thunderstorms over the coastal waters
shifting onshore in waves today into tonight. Lingering drier air
(PWATs 1.3-1.5 in) and subsidence will limit shower activity to
mainly coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin. Breezy NE winds
are already gusting up to 30 mph along the coast early this
morning. Today, wind gusts will increase to 20-25 mph inland to
30-35 mph along the coast. A few spots along the coast may reach
up to 40 mph. In the NE flow, daytime highs will range from the
upper 70s along the SE GA coast to the mid 80s along the I-75
corridor. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s inland SE GA
to the low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

An increasingly unsettled weather regime will occur during this
time period, to including overcast skies, increased rain chances
area-wide with localized flooding rainfall, hazardous marine
winds and seas, coastal tidal flooding, and rough and dangerous
surf.

Surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will slowly
shift eastward through the period while an area of low pressure
and frontal boundary slowly move north from the southern Gulf and
south FL. A broad mid/upper level trough also extends across the
Gulf to most of the FL peninsula this period that slowly weakens
and moves north. An inverted trough is also likely to stay intact
off the southeast U.S. coast. This synoptic combination along with
a gradual veering wind profile will lead to increased moisture
and low level convergence supporting higher chances of showers and
embedded thunderstorm. The rainfall risk increases for the area
on Saturday as PWAT values rise to about the 90th percentile
relative to climatology with values of about 1.95 inches. This
more elevated risk of showers and embedded storms continues into
Saturday night. Heaviest rainfall is emphasized along the coastal
areas. Total rainfall during this period is forecast at about 1-2
inches coast and about 0.50 inches or less inland. However, some
higher amounts possible for coastal counties, especially for St
Johns, Flagler, and eastern Putnam counties where values could
reach to around 3-4 inches. This will support a risk of flooding
and be exacerbated by the tidal flooding we are expecting.

Gusty east to northeast coastal winds also expected during the period
with winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. Some outside chances
of 40 mph gusts especially in the shower activity. Can`t rule out
the need for a wind advisory coastal zones for pure pressure gradient
winds. Any strong gusts in showers of 40-45 mph will be convective
in nature and thus could be covered by Special Weather
Statements (SPS).

High temperatures will be a bit below normal in the 80-85 degree
range and lows will trend a bit higher due to clouds and precip.
Lows are forecast in the mid 60s over inland southeast GA to
lower 70s coast and then trend to mostly about 70-75 deg Sat
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A 2028 mb high pressure system is forecast to be positioned off
the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday and is forecast to move further
east next week as a cold front moves into the eastern U.S. and
into the TN Valley. The low level flow for our area will continue
to feed moisture into the area off the Atlantic on east- southeast
surface winds. For the first couple of days, the models still
show some broad surface low pressure over the Gulf with enhanced
easterly winds and a good possibility of numerous to widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and probably into
Monday. Some drier air begins to work into the area late Monday
into Tuesday as mean deep layer winds veer to south- southeast and
push deep moisture north of the area. Though lesser chances of
showers and storms are anticipated Tue-Wed as onshore flow weakens,
sufficient moisture and daytime heating will still lead to a
chance of convection each day. For overnight hours, at least few
showers will be possible along coastal areas due to the persistent
moist easterly flow.

The breezy easterly winds continue on Sunday and Monday and
probably will trend a little lower Tue-Wed as the pressure
gradient relaxes more.

As far as impacts, minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely to
continue at least for Sun-Tue, with trapped tides also in the St
Johns River Basin. Rainfall amounts of up to 2-4 inches are forecast
for the coastal areas. Lesser rainfall amounts expected after Tuesday.
The beaches will continue to see enhanced surf heights, some
beach erosion, and strong rip currents.

Below normal highs by 3-5 degrees are forecast on Sunday and then
will start to trend a bit warmer toward climate during the rest
of the period. Lows are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
with warmest readings at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Local Nor`easter impacts to local terminals expected over the next
24 hours as rain bands currently south of the local terminals will
shift northward and impact the coastal terminals of CRG/SSI/SGJ
with widespread MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty NE winds from this
afternoon through tonight, while impacts will be more tempered at
the inland TAF sites as NE winds increase today, but then slowly
weaken after sunset, with muted rainfall chances, especially at
VQQ/GNV where conds will remain closer to VFR at times. Peak wind
gusts will be around 30 knots this afternoon at coastal terminals
but remain close to 30 knots through the night at SSI/SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds and
elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through the
upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional wind
gusts to Gale Force. Strong high pressure will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard today. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our
local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly by
Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic states.

Rip currents: Rough seas and high wind waves will maintain
high rip current risk today and continuing through the
weekend.

Surf: Surf continues to reach toward the 6-10 foot range through
the week. Surf will be slow to subside this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Minor flooding observed these past couple of high tide cycles will
continue today for areas along the St. Johns River from downtown
JAX southward and along the St. Johns/Flagler coasts and
Intracoastal Waterways. This will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory
in place today as peak water levels remain generally in the 1.5
to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The ENE surge of winds combined with
higher astronomical tides due to the approaching full Moon and
lingering swells from Imelda will result in minor coastal flooding
expanding to the entire St. Johns River Basin and all beachfront
locations of NE FL/SE GA through the weekend. Guidance continues
to show the potential for moderate coastal flooding along the St.
Johns/Flagler coasts and St. Johns river south of Jacksonville
with water levels peaking in the 2.0 to 2.5 ft above MHHW. A
Coastal Flood Watch is in effect to account for this potential.
Trapped tides in the St. Johns River will likely prolong flooding
into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  63  82  65 /  10  20  10  10
SSI  78  70  80  71 /  40  60  50  40
JAX  81  69  83  70 /  50  60  70  30
SGJ  83  71  83  72 /  60  70  70  50
GNV  85  68  85  69 /  30  30  40  20
OCF  85  69  84  71 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ124-125.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ132-
     137-138-233-333-633.

     Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for
     FLZ132-137-138-233-333-633.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ325.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$