328
FXUS62 KJAX 231752
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Coastal & Marine Hazards Begins Saturday.

- Coastal Flood Watch - Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and
  Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide this Weekend thru
  Early Next Week.

- Gale Watches for the Atlantic Waters from Saturday Afternoon
  through Monday.

- Wind Advisory Conditions for Coast & St. Johns River Saturday
  Afternoon through Monday.

- High Rip Current Risk through much of next week.

- Major Beach Erosion near High Tides this Weekend & Next Week.

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL late
  Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- High Risk for Rip Currents
- Coastal flooding potential

Dry weather conditions will continue through today and tonight with
winds strengthening this afternoon as an elevated northeast flow
develops between the strengthening high to the north and the
developing trough building to the east-southeast of the area. Gusty
winds being more noticeable along the coast, with coastal hazards
increasing due to strengthening onshore flow. High temperatures for
this afternoon will reach up into the mid to upper 70s for inland
areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the coast. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for
inland southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 50s for inland
northeast Florida, with min temps in the lower to mid 60s for areas
along the coast and near the St Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Increase on Saturday, with Coastal
Flood Watches Issued Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway
and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate to Possibly Major Tidal Flooding
is Expected Around Times of High Tide.

- Wind Advisory Likely for the Atlantic Coastal Counties this
Weekend.

- Gale Watches for the Atlantic Waters from Saturday Afternoon
through Monday.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Develop on Saturday , with a
High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion at
Area Beaches this Weekend.

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Along Coastal Northeast FL on
Saturday Afternoon and Night.

Strong northeasterly onshore flow continues this weekend as high
pressure stretches south along the eastern seaboard and a coastal
trough over the offshore waters causing for a tightening pressure
gradient between the two features. Showers over the waters will push
towards coastal locations by the morning hours on Saturday, and then
towards inland locations of NE FL by afternoon hours. Some heavy
downpours may be possible as the showers move inland, with some
flooding concerns with training showers. The strong onshore flow
will bring 25 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph on Saturday
afternoon for coast locations and along the St. Johns River Basin,
with a Wind Advisory likely to be issued in the upcoming evening
forecast package. Sunday, a similar pattern is expected. Strong
onshore flow persists with elevated winds and gusts along the same
locations as Saturday and showers along the coasts and inland
locations towards north central FL.

Mostly clear and sunny conditions away from the coast will allow for
afternoon temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 70s this weekend,
with a bit cooler temperatures along the coast. Overnight Lows will
drop into the lower to upper 50s across SE GA and the Suwannee
Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate to Possibly
Major Tidal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Early in the
Week Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns
River Basin.

- Wind Advisory Conditions Prevail through Monday Evening at Coastal
Locations.

- Gale Watches Continue through at Least Monday for Our
Local Atlantic Waters.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for
Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area
Beaches through Much of the Upcoming Week.

Strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region early on Monday
will slowly settle southward while gradually weakening through
midweek. Meanwhile, deep troughing initially in place along the
southeastern seaboard will likely cutoff over the Bahamas, with
lowering surface pressures to the south of our region keeping a
relatively tight local pressure gradient in place on Monday and
Tuesday. A slightly drier air mass will continue to overspread our
region, but enough low level convergence will remain in place to
occasionally bring showers to coastal northeast FL and the St. Johns
River basin. Northeasterly winds will remain sustained in the 25-30
mph range for coastal northeast FL on Monday, where winds will
frequently gust to 40-45 mph through around sunset before a gradual
decrease begins on Monday night. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will
prevail in the drier air mass for inland southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley, while partly to mostly cloudy skies continue
elsewhere on Monday. Highs will again remain in the low to mid 70s,
except upper 70s for north central FL and the Suwannee Valley.

A gradual loosening of our local pressure gradient on Monday night
will allow for winds to decouple overnight across inland southeast
GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, where fair skies
will allow lows to fall into the mid and upper 40s. Lows elsewhere
inland and along the southeast GA coast will fall into the 50s,
while breezy onshore winds keep lows in the mid to upper 60s for
most of coastal northeast FL.

Cutoff troughing and lower surface pressures will likely meander
around the Bahamas on Tuesday before developing zonal flow finally
pushes these features northeastward and away from our region towards
midweek. However, a reinforcing high pressure center building over
New England could begin to wedge down the southeastern seaboard by
Wednesday night or Thursday, which would keep gusty northeasterly
winds in place at coastal locations for the duration of the upcoming
week as coastal troughing remains situated over our local Atlantic
waters. This long duration wind event will maintain significant
coastal and marine impacts as high astronomical tides persist next
week. Scattered coastal showers will also continue to occasionally
move onshore, with highs generally remaining in the 70s for the rest
of next week. Lows may again fall into the 40s for inland southeast
GA and the Suwannee Valley on Tuesday night, with 50s then forecast
for the rest of the week for these locations.  Lows elsewhere will
fall to the 50s, except 65-70 along the northeast FL coast, where
gusty onshore winds will prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will be in place through the majority of the forecast
period with north-northeasterly winds becoming less strong in the
evening and overnight hours for inland sites and then becoming more
enhanced closer to the end of the forecast period on Saturday, by
around 14z-16z. Lower cloud decks and potential for showers are
anticipated for late Saturday morning and into the early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...


A combination of strong high pressure developing to the north, and a
trough of low pressure to the east southeast will result in a tight
pressure gradient over area waters this weekend into early next
week. This will lead to elevated conditions with gales expected by
Saturday afternoon. While the high will weaken to the north into the
middle part of next week, an enhanced northeast flow will continue.

Rip Currents / High Surf: Breakers of 5-6 feet at the northeast FL
beaches and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches will maintain a
high rip current risk today. High Surf Advisories will likely be
required by Saturday afternoon at the northeast FL beaches, as
breakers build to the 6-7 foot range, while 4-5 foot breakers are
expected at the southeast GA beaches. Surf will likely peak on
Sunday and Monday, with breakers of 8-10 feet at the northeast FL
beaches and 6-7 feet at the southeast GA beaches, and High Surf
Advisories will likely be expanded to cover coastal southeast GA
during this time frame. High surf conditions may continue through at
least midweek at the northeast FL beaches, and a high risk of deadly
rip currents will continue during the entire forecast period at all
area beaches, where major beach erosion is likely to occur during
this extended duration onshore wind event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Critically Low Humidity This Afternoon For Inland Southeast Ga
- Marginally High Dispersion Values Inland This Afternoon
     ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
- Tonight Expand To The I-95 Corridor On Saturday And Sunday Nights

Critically low humidity values continue this afternoon across inland
southeast Georgia. Showers will begin to move onshore along the
northeast Florida coast after midnight tonight, followed by waves of
showers throughout the weekend and into Monday along the I-95
corridor in northeast Florida, with activity occasionally extending
to coastal southeast Georgia and for inland locations east of U.S.
Highway 301 in northeast and north central Florida. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible this weekend along the I-95 corridor in
northeast Florida. Breezy conditions along coastal locations this
evening, creating elevated nighttime dispersion values. Strong
northeasterly surface and transport winds will then overspread the I-
95 corridor on Saturday and will continue through Monday, yielding
elevated nighttime dispersion values. Breezy conditions are expected
inland, creating good daytime dispersion values despite mostly
cloudy skies.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla
River during the weekend, with water levels forecast to fall below
flood stage by Monday night or Tuesday near the gauge at Atkinson.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures of 0.75 - 1 foot above the predicted astronomical
tide continue along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns
River basin. We expect water levels to top out near the minor flood
threshold around times of high tide through tonight, and a Coastal
Flood Advisory has been expanded to include all of coastal northeast
FL and the entire St. Johns River basin.

Northeast winds surging on Saturday morning will combine with the
upcoming full moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26 and lunar perigee
on October 28th to increase water levels to at least moderate
flooding during times of high tide beginning on Saturday.
Confidence is growing for peak water levels of 2.0-3.5 feet
above MHHW by the Sunday high tide cycles, and a Coastal Flood
Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast and St. Johns River
basin beginning late on Friday night. Tidal stations may
approach low-end moderate flooding as early as the Saturday
morning high tide, but Sunday and Monday are when the peak tidal
flooding will occur.

As the astronomical tides increase this weekend, the combination of
the building surf and water levels will lead to higher beach erosion
potential. This potential looks higher than the prior northeast wind
event around Oct 17th-18th, and the long duration of this event
could produce significant erosion during each high tide cycle during
the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  59  72  61 /   0   0  20  10
JAX  74  59  73  65 /   0   0  40  40
SGJ  75  64  74  69 /   0  30  90  80
GNV  78  55  77  66 /   0   0  10  40
OCF  78  56  78  66 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening
     for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening
     for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ450.
     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$