Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
956 FXUS62 KKEY 061745 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 145 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal rain chances are expected through the weekend. - Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the next few days. - Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Drier air Keys will limit shower development therefore VCSH is not included for the time being. Near surface winds will continue to be easterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The long week of ridiculous rainfall has finally drawn to a close with this afternoons mesoscale convective vortex in the Lower Keys. All island locations received a healthy dose of rainfall through the week with some locations receiving excessive amounts in the 6 to 8 inch range. After zero precipitation echoes through much of the overnight, only a few showers have sprouted over the distant Florida Straits. The boundary layer is tapped out. In addition, a broad surface through lower level high centered near the Carolina Coast is driving drier near 70 dew points across the Keys on gentle to moderate easterlies. Sharp ridging has built northeastward across the Gulf and the southeastern States and drier air is beginning to filter in through the mid and upper levels. With that said, the lower levels remain quite moist and inhibition is essentially non existent. All this means that while shower and thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out, their probabilities are significantly lower than in the past several days. The gentle to moderate easterlies will persist over the next few days as the Carolina high steadily pushes out into the Atlantic trailing a ridge across the Gulf Coast. Surface temperatures and dew points will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s, lows near to slightly above 80, and dew points recovering into the mid 70s. Much drier air will remain through the mid and upper levels with ridging dominant. CAPE will be modest and inhibition will remain weak to non existent. This warrants at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half of the week, broad troughing will push westward through the northern Caribbean Sea. While slightly weaker, there will be enough gradient between this migrating trough and the ridge to our north to maintain gentle to moderate easterlies. Continued dry air will keep shower and thunder chances near normal. This may change heading into mid week however. The trough will bring increasing low level moisture confluence. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave trough will take shape over the central Gulf of America. This may result in moistening through the mid and upper levels as well. As a consequence, rain and thunder chances may rise considerably above normal around mid week. A lot of things have to fall into place for this to happen, but for now, global models are in rough agreement. This could easily change in the next couple of days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a broad high centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of days. The high will push out into the Atlantic early next week. However, the combination of a broad trough riding westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a stalled inverted trough over the Bahamas will keep easterly breezes mostly gentle through this period. Heading into mid week, all of the previously mentioned troughing will slide westward into the Yucatan. Heading into mid week there is the potential for freshening southeasterly breezes. Lower level moisture should also rise, pushing up shower and thunder chances. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest