Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
832 FXUS62 KKEY 071954 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 254 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A series of high pressure systems docking in the central North Atlantic will support a gradual slackening trend in northeast to east breezes through the weekend and mainly dry conditions. -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -Confidence continues to increase that a significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday, ushering much cooler and windy conditions for early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 High pressure will continue to slide eastward across the central North Atlantic Saturday and Sunday. This will result breezes slackening and potentially becoming variable are times. A potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Monday, with fresh to strong northerlies expected in its wake for early next week. As the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. However, moderate to occasional fresh breezes will remain possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 254 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the evening and overnight. Winds will remain light and will fluctuate at times from ENE to ESE. The threat for VCSH has quickly diminished and will leave out of the forecast, especially EYW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 515 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 Composite tropospheric and surface analysis depicts a shortwave trough in the central to eastern Gulf, impinging on the Florida Keys. At the surface, a complex interaction of a series of frontal boundaries remain in the vicinity of the Florida Keys, resulting in light to gentle synoptic flow. KBYX radar is highlighting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Straits of Florida. Stagnant temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s. The confidence in the forecast for today is rather challenging. All available statistical numerical weather prediction guidance suggests today should be quite wet, given the synoptic forcing for ascent. Our local meteorological expertise suggests otherwise, supported by a sampled surface to 900 mb dry-adiabatically mixed profile. We will roll with chance level PoPs today, with a potential boom or bust rainfall forecast (although amounts should be light either way). The main weather story will be the strong early-season cold front progged to roll through the Keys on Monday, with cool and windy conditions in its wake. Although models suggest mostly sunny and dry conditions, we expect bouts of low cirrostratus decks. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s, and lows in the lower 60s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 85 75 85 / 30 20 10 10 Marathon 75 83 75 84 / 20 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest