159
FXUS62 KKEY 112039
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
339 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A significant cold front traversed the Florida Keys yesterday.
 Much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developed
 and will last for the first part of the work week.

-Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the
 end of the week as a high pressure system sets up over the
 northern Gulf.

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to persist through at
least this evening. Fresh to strong breezes will shift out of the
northeast and gradually slacken through the week while an area of
high pressure builds in behind across the Southeast U.S. Moderate
to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible through the
end of the work week. Then breezes slacken to gentle to moderate
as the high pressure flattens and weakens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 336 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening.
Northeast winds will gradually slacken through the overnight. That
being said, expect moderate to fresh breezes to persist for both
island terminals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025
Winds continue to howl across the Florida Keys this morning
following yesterday`s frontal passage. Strong northerly breezes
prevail across our offshore observation stations along the Reef
and show no sign of letting up soon. Meanwhile, GOES-19 Nighttime
Microphysics imagery depicts mostly to partly cloudy skies
streaming over the Keys with rows of shallow stratocumulus moving
south in the lower levels and high cirrus flowing northeast. KBYX
radar is completely free of precipitation, which is quite
unsurprising considering the extremely dry airmass that was left
in the cold front`s wake. Temperatures across the island chain
vary quite a bit depending on how close to mainland outflow any
one location is. Temperatures in the mid 60s hold in the Lower
Keys while the Upper Keys sees values in the upper 50s with the
Middle Keys in between. Dewpoints are spread similarly with
values in the mid 50s and mid 40s observed in the Lower and Upper
Keys respectively.

A surface high settling over the southeast US this morning will
shift our strong breezes towards the northeast. This setup will
favor wind drainage from mainland Florida fanning out into our
area with prevailing wind speeds and temperatures continuing to
fall up until sunrise. This new cool and dry air mass in place
along with ample cloud cover will keep temperatures capped at or
below 70 today. CIMSS MIMIC PW has values less than half an inch
painted over our CWA. Combine that with a stark inversion observed
just above 900 mb from yesterday evening`s balloon sounding and
you get a slam dunk for near nil rain chances. As the front
continues to march out into the western north Atlantic, breezes
will gradually slacken throughout today and tonight. Temperatures
will stay in the 60s overnight leading into Wednesday.

While this taste of dry season is certainly a change of pace, it
will not last for too long. The surface ridge will stretch itself
out into the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida in the second
half of the week. Breezes in the Keys will slowly shift to the
northeast to east as a result. Temperatures will also recover back
to near 80 for the highs and lower 70s for the lows by the back
half of the week. The dry portion of this airmass will last
somewhat longer with rain chances kept near nil until our easterly
breezes find a southerly component to let mid level tropical
moisture back into the picture later this weekend. For now, enjoy
the brief preview of dry season conditions while it lasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  64  78  70  80 /  10   0   0  10
Marathon  64  76  69  77 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....LIW

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