Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
756 FXUS62 KKEY 270344 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1044 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light east to southeast breezes are expected overnight, along with a few passing light showers at times. -The Thanksgiving holiday will serve as a turning point in our weather pattern, as a cold front marches down the Florida Peninsula, pushing through our area late tomorrow and into Friday. -The front is expected to linger across the area through the first half of the weekend, and will lead to a period of breezy to windy conditions. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the Florida Keys marine zones. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 The afternoon and evening period began with residual scattered showers that were moving through the east to southeast flow. One or two of these showers actually managed to become robust enough to become a thunderstorm. These were very short lived and all of the activity diminished after sunset. Within the last hour, we have seen showers popping back up. This is because, a high pressure is moving further to the east and away from the Florida Keys, which is leaving us in a weakened pressure field. This weakened pressure field is leading to lighter winds and allowing mass and momentum to collide and bunch up. The result is this latest batch of showers. Given this atmospheric bottleneck that is occurring and will likely continue overnight, saw no need to adjust PoPs from the current 30 percent we`re advertising. If any of these boundary collisions are strong enough, we could see an isolated thunderstorm or two overnight. The main hazards will be cloud to ground lightning, brief gusty winds to near 25 mph, and reduce visibilities within heavier rainfall. && .MARINE... Issued at 1044 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A surface ridge is pulling away from the Florida Keys and has resulted the pressure field weakening. This has lead to breezes slackening to light to gentle from the east to southeast. A cold front associated with a deepening trough will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late on Thursday. Breezes will freshen drastically late Thursday night in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong breezes and an increase in shower activity expected through Saturday night. Breezes will begin to slacken by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Showers are beginning to develop, mainly around the EYW terminal, therefore have inserted VCSH for the overnight period. The MTH terminal was omitted for now but will need to be monitored for future amendments. Winds will remain light and at times variable overnight through most of Thursday morning. By the afternoon, a cold front is poised to sweep through with a sharp increase in northerly winds. Just beyond the current forecast period, expect a crosswind magnitude of greater than 22 knots to develop. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 The weather has been a little more exciting during this overnight shift as clusters of showers have been moving northwest through our forecast area. Automated surface observations along the island chain have reported only a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall, but radar estimates have suggested some of the moderate showers over our waters have produced as much as an inch of rainfall. The increase in moisture is noted in surface observations as dew points are in the low to mid 70s. CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT shows values near 1.25" across the area, and the 12Z balloon launch will likely show that most of that moisture is confined to the lower levels. While there isn`t a large scale lifting mechanism available, confluence associated with a col area nearby may just be enough to encourage continued shower activity today. Opting to maintain a 30% chance of rain for the island chain today. The col area mentioned above will move across the area over the course of today and tonight as troughing entering the eastern half of the U.S. digs deeper into the region. This isn`t an ideal setup for a holiday, but the first half of Thanksgiving doesn`t look terrible as light to gentle breezes turn northerly ahead of the approaching cold front. There is still a chance of showers at any point during the day, but CAMs aren`t indicating any widespread shields of rain. The leading edge of the cold front is progged to arrive late tomorrow night and into early Friday morning, meaning Thanksgiving dinner should be spared. Breezy to windy conditions will charge in overnight, and MOS guidance is suggesting dew points as low as near 60F are possible. Even though this pattern is fairly progressive, the boundary is expected to linger across the area through the weekend, resulting in an extended period of unsettled weather. Guidance suggests that the remnants of the front will lift out of the area either late Sunday or early Monday, and drier conditions may make a short- lived return. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest