022
FXUS64 KLIX 060606
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
106 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Continued the coastal flood advisory through 6am as tide levels
have mostly flattened out but are still above criteria by 3 tenths
or better. Water levels will slowly lower through the morning but
will remain on the high side through much of the day today. Have
also headlined caution statements for marine areas as winds are
also slow to come down but are still in the 15 to 20kt range. Both
of these headlines will fall at 6am today.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A low pressure system that has been producing gusty east winds,
minor coastal flooding on east facing shores, and periods of light
to moderate rainfall is over western Louisiana. The low will
gradually weaken and eventually dissipate during the day. This will
allow east winds to decrease, and the threat of additional coastal
flooding will come to an end. However, lingering low to mid level
moisture will combine with a moderately unstable airmass associated
with warmer daytime highs today to support additional scattered
shower and thunderstorm development over the area. Rain chances of
40 to 60 percent are in the forecast for the afternoon to reflect
this convective risk.

Speaking of the temperatures, highs will warm into the mid or upper
80s, a bit warmer than normal levels for early October, as skies
turn sunnier. Tonight will see lows staying a bit warmer than
average between 70 and 75, due to lingering low level moisture, but
any convection should quickly dissipate after sunset due to the loss
of instability driving convective updraft formation.

Tuesday will see a continued drying trend as an increasingly
stronger mid to upper level high pressure system becomes the
dominant feature over the Gulf South. Precipitable water values will
fall to about the 75th percentile by Tuesday afternoon (around 1.7
inches), instead of the top of the chart like yesterday, as the
airmass warms and dries aloft, and the development of a mid- level
temperature inversion will help to tamp down deeper convective
updraft development. However, enough low level instability will be
in place as temperatures warm into the 85 to 90 range to pop off
some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday
afternoon. Rain chances of around 25 to 40 percent are in place for
the entire area on Tuesday afternoon to reflect this convective
risk. Once again, any convection will be highly diurnal with dry
conditions forecast by the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Upper ridging is expected to become established along the northern
Gulf Coast by Tuesday, with the center of the ridge eventually
becoming centered over Texas by Thursday into next weekend. The main
trough axis will eventually re-establish itself to the east of our
area by late week, returning to what has been the prevailing upper
air pattern for much of the last 6 weeks. Precipitable water values
will slowly decrease to between the 50th and 75th percentile by
Wednesday and Thursday, and to around the 25th percentile(approx 1
inch) by Saturday. This should be reflected in a continuing
diminishing trend in rain chances Wednesday, not much more than 20
percent, especially as one gets further away from the coast. By
Thursday and Friday, the only mention of rain in the forecast is
expected to be slight chances over lower portions of Plaquemines
Parish, with the forecast for next Saturday and Sunday completely
dry.

As the airmass slowly dries out, we`ll start seeing a little more
sunshine each day. Much of the area should see highs upper 80s to
around 90 Wednesday, easing back to the mid and upper 80s Thursday.
As we get to Friday and the weekend, the northwesterly mid level
flow may aid in bringing slightly cooler air to the area, with highs
primarily in the mid 80s for the weekend. The cooler conditions will
be more noticeable in the overnight low temperatures, with lows in
the mid 60s to around 70 by Friday morning, cooling to around 60
across the northern half of the area by Sunday morning. Normally
cooler spots could even fall into the upper 50s. South of Lake
Pontchartrain, lows could fall into the middle and upper 60s by
Sunday morning. By the end of the week, average highs are generally
in the lower 80s and overnight lows range from near 60 over
southwest Mississippi to the mid 60s in areas just south of Lake
Pontchartrain. So, even over the weekend, temperatures will still be
near or above normal for mid-October. All indications are that
beyond the next few days...warmer and drier than normal conditions
are expected for a good portion of October, certainly for the next
week or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Scattered SHRA continue to wrap cyclonically around the shortwave
over western Louisiana, and could occur at any of the terminals
over the next several hours. Most lightning has remained over the
coastal waters and the lower portions of the southeast Louisiana
coastal parishes. Have not mentioned TSRA in any of the terminals
overnight, but the threat for at least one or two strikes is non-
zero. Within the SHRA, IFR conditions are possible.

Toward sunrise, brief IFR conditions are more likely, especially
at KMCB. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions during the day with
scattered SHRA/TSRA possible once significant surface heating
occurs by mid to late morning. Most should dissipate by sunset,
with mainly VFR conditions during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Conditions should continue to gradually improve across the waters as
the low that has been impacting the area the past few days begins to
move inland over western Louisiana and weaken. A decreasing pressure
gradient over the waters as this low weakens will allow winds to
fall to around 10 to 15 knots by morning. Seas will also gradually
decrease in response to these lighter winds with seas of 2 to 4 feet
expected during the day. These lighter winds and calmer seas will
persist Tuesday, but the pressure gradient will again tighten for
the second half of the week, with winds back into the 15 to 20 knot
range, especially over the outer open waters. Another round of small
craft advisories may be needed by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  88  69 /  60  20  30  10
BTR  88  71  90  71 /  60  10  30  10
ASD  86  70  86  69 /  50  20  40  10
MSY  89  75  88  75 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  85  72  85  71 /  60  20  40  10
PQL  85  71  86  69 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW