269
FXUS64 KLIX 112329 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
  through tomorrow, but as the week continues storm coverage will
  decrease. Storm motion will be slow so with any thunderstorm
  brief heavy rain is possible, cloud to ground lightning, and
  higher wind gusts.

- Heat index readings will near advisory criteria this afternoon
  south and southwest of the tidal lakes but should remain just
  below 108 degrees. However, later this week the heat index
  values will range between 105 and 110 and heat advisories may be
  needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Today and Wednesday will be the most appreciable chances of rain
this week and the chances aren`t really high to begin with. Any
convection that would form would be the seabreeze/diurnally
driven storms but there is rather poor environment support with
very little shear and poor lapse rates. Still plenty of CAPE and
sufficient PW to go around so isolated ones are definitely on the
table. Any storms that form could still have frequent lightning,
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
As the upper level ridge builds even more that will really clamp
down on convection chances, so the main concern will shift to
heat. Decided to hold off on a heat advisory for tomorrow for now,
as it`s extremely borderline and isolated (mainly around the
south side of Lake Pontchartrain). But as the week continues the
chances of heat advisories will be increasing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A strong mid/upper-level ridge will remain the dominant feature
through the weekend, with the upper high gradually shifting west
from the Lower Mississippi Valley towards Texas and Oklahoma.
Despite this westward shift, we will remain beneath the southeastern
influence of the ridge with above-normal heights, warm temperatures
aloft, and subsidence limiting convective development. With little
synoptic forcing and somewhat suppressed deep-layer moisture,
convection should be largely confined to isolated afternoon storms
along sea/lake breeze and other mesoscale boundaries. Most locations
should remain dry each day, with PoPs generally 20 percent or less.

Heat will remain the primary concern through the period as abundant
insolation and limited convective cooling will allow highs to climb
into the mid to upper 90s, with a few locations potentially
approaching 100 degrees. Afternoon mixing may lower dewpoints
somewhat more than indicated by the NBM, which could temper peak
heat indices while also allowing temperatures to climb a bit higher.
Even so, heat indices around 105 to 110 degrees will be possible,
and heat headlines may eventually be needed for portions of the
area. Little meaningful change in the overall hot and relatively dry
pattern is expected through Monday as the ridge remains influential

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Isolated convection across the region has decreased this
afternoon. Only one or two more showers remain across southeast
Louisiana. After this afternoon, rain chances begin to decrease
meaning outside of HUM no mention of convection for Wednesday.
VFR and light southerly winds will continue through the cycle.
(Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Strengthening high pressure will hold over much of the coastal
waters this week, with winds remaining generally light 5 to 10
knots out of the southeast for a good chunk of the week. Chances
of showers and storms will be increasingly isolated later this
week, although they remain possible especially diurnally based
ones or riding the edge of the high.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...BL