576
FXUS64 KLIX 071150
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
550 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - Another shot of colder air will follow the passage of a strong
   cold front Sunday night. The coldest air won`t arrive until
   Monday with the coldest night being Monday night/Tuesday morning.

 - About an 18 hour period of hazardous marine conditions behind
   the cold front late Sunday night through Monday afternoon before
   conditions improve.

 - Temperatures warming to well above normal for Wednesday and
   Thursday before much colder weather arrives next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

An update to the fcast once more to add fog wording to the
daylight hours. This is an uncommon occurrance as visibility
should actually lower after sunrise today instead of before or
right at sunrise which is the most common way it happens. This is
due to being in between a warm frontal zone and a cold front
moving toward our area. This should cause the rain shield at the
coast to move a bit more offshore, but not far which will aid in
helping fog form. Vis should not be in advisory criteria but can
get to around 1/2 mile in a few locations with mainly 1 to 3 mile
vis common. A few location near the coast could even flirt with
1/4 mile but this shouldn`t remain long. There is the possibility
that a dense fog advisory gets issued for marine areas near shore
after daylight today, this is only due to the criteria being
higher(1nm or less) than inland(1/4 mile or less) criteria. So
far, vis is better than a mile over marine locations. This can be
seen in the Miss River. Basically, if the river gets dense fog,
then most marine areas will have it as well since the conditions
and SSTs are the same as the river. Marine obs such as platforms
can be used for flight ops but not for marine sfc travel since the
observations will be at around 200ft which is where the strat deck
is hanging at, so one would expect the platforms over the gulf to
show dense fog later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A broad upper trough covered much of the eastern two thirds of the
country this evening, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. Quasi-
zonal flow was noted along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a
shortwave near the Texas Big Bend area. At the surface, high
pressure extended from Kentucky to Georgia. Frontal boundaries
were well to the south over the central Gulf, and well to the
north near Interstate 70. Patchy light rain was noted over the
lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. Low clouds were
covering much of the area with temperatures mainly in the lower
and middle 50s with light easterly winds.

The southern stream shortwave over the Big Bend area will shift
eastward and be moving off the Georgia coast Sunday evening. A
strong northern stream shortwave will dig into the base of the
trough over the Appalachians by Monday. Low pressure associated with
the southern stream shortwave may briefly turn winds southeasterly
during the day Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm to near 70
Sunday afternoon. As the shortwave and low pass east of the area
Sunday night, winds will shift to the north and much cooler and
drier air will arrive late Sunday night and Monday. Scattered
showers and perhaps a few storms could accompany the front. Likely
to see some sunshine by Monday afternoon, but gusty northerly winds
will make it feel cooler than it looks.

Temperatures aren`t likely to move much prior to sunrise Sunday.
Temperature solutions for the most part are pretty close to the
ECMWF guidance through Monday. Won`t entirely rule out a freeze
across northern areas early Tuesday morning, but not specifically
forecasting it at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

With the longwave trough axis to our east for the middle of the
week, the upper flow will be northwesterly, which should keep the
area dry through at least Thursday. If there is going to be any
precipitation during this portion of the forecast, it will probably
be Thursday night and/or Friday morning as a northern stream
shortwave passes well to the northeast of the area, dragging a cold
front across us.

Tuesday will be chilly until the surface high axis passes to the
east of the area. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warm days for
the week, approaching 70 Wednesday and well into the 70s on
Thursday. Colder air will arrive again on Friday, with high
temperatures Saturday and Sunday of next weekend likely not
getting out of the 50s, if that warm, with a freeze possible late
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Conditions will not improve through this taf cycle. Cigs will
remain in IFR to LIFR ranges today and tonight. Vis will range
from MVFR to IFR but several sites should hit LIFR as well today
and tonight. This vis situation is a bit different in that the
highest vis will be now and lower after daylight today. Vis should
improve as noon approaches then fall again overnight back to IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Likely to need Small Craft Advisories across most or all waters from
06z Monday to 06z Tuesday due to cold air advection behind the cold
front. Conditions should improve during the day Tuesday, with no
further wind related issues until perhaps Friday afternoon behind
the next cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  54  33 /  50  60   0   0
BTR  70  47  57  35 /  60  60   0   0
ASD  68  47  59  34 /  40  70   0   0
MSY  70  51  60  43 /  50  60   0   0
GPT  67  49  60  37 /  40  70   0   0
PQL  68  47  60  34 /  30  70   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW