547
FXUS64 KLIX 300644
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
144 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- River flooding in Pearl River Co and MS Coastal Basins will
  continue as water continues to drain from yesterday`s heavy
  rainfall.

- Drier pattern through this weekend with increased rain chances
  returning middle of next week.

- Summertime temps coming with highs around 90 degrees and heat
  indicies near 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broad area of deep layer ridging will remain in full control of
the Gulf South through Tuesday. This deep layer ridging will help
to reduce rain chances and overall cloud development through
Tuesday and push our temperatures higher than average into the
lower 90s. Low level humidity will remain high with readings near
70 degrees, and this will help to push heat index readings into
the 100 to 105 degree range on Sunday through Tuesday. Although
these values are below our heat advisory criteria, this early
season heat could catch people off guard. HeatRisk reflects this
with most of the area in a moderate HeatRisk category, but a few
locations could push into major HeatRisk category. What this means
is that the threat of heat related illness could expand beyond
the more vulnerable populations to heat into the broader
population. Anyone planning to be outside this weekend should take
frequent breaks in a air conditioned or shaded place and drink
plenty of water.

Beyond the hot weather, near average precipitable water values and
ample instability as noted by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 feet
will support scattered diurnally induced convective activity each
afternoon. PoP will peak out each afternoon in the 30 to 50
percent range and will quickly drop off shortly after sunset as
temperatures and overall instability wanes. Conditions do not look
favorable for microburst development today and tomorrow, but
somewhat drier air in the mid-levels moving in for Monday and
Tuesday will support a higher wet microburst potential on these
days. This is supported by DCAPE values increasing to around 1000
J/KG on these days. Most of the activity will remain below severe
limits, but the deepest updrafts could produce some isolated
damaging wind events on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A weak backdoor front will slide through Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a strong upper level trough descends into the eastern
seaboard. This front will sweep offshore and a much drier airmass
will feed into the region for Wednesday. PWATS will fall well
below average to around one inch and this will effectively limit
most convective potential for Wednesday. At most, a very isolated
shower or thunderstorm may develop along the coast, but overall
dry conditions are anticipated. Some weak cold air advection will
also take hold and this will help temperatures cool back to
average in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values to fall back
into the lower 90s. Thursday will be a transitional day with PWATS
gradually increasing, but overall convective coverage will remain
limited as return flow gradually reestablishes itself. A bit
better isolated to very widely scattered convective activity will
occur Thursday afternoon, late in the day, when temperatures reach
their peak. Any convection will need to develop on a low level
boundary like the seabreeze to overcome the strong 850mb capping
inversion in place.

As we move into Friday and beyond into next weekend, model
differences begin to grow in relation to a developing low over the
southwestern Gulf. Given these model differences and low forecast
confidence, the deterministic NBM output will be used for our day
7 forecast. This will result in a return to a more typical Summer
pattern with near average PWATS and diurnally induced scattered
afternoon PoP of 30 to 50 percent. Severe weather will be limited,
but locally heavy downpours can be expected as moisture
increases. Temperatures will remain near average, and overall a
very typical early June day is expected across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The boundary layer is expected to decouple again at MCB early this
morning for a few hours resulting in another round of low stratus
and IFR conditions from around 10z through 14z. The low stratus
will quickly mix out as temperatures begin to warm after 14z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will remain in place at all of the
terminals. There may be some isolated thunderstorm activity that
forms this afternoon, but the probabilities are too low to include
in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the northern Gulf will
keep a persistent light onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots in place
through Tuesday.  These light winds will allow seas to remain calm
at 2 feet or less through Tuesday.  A weak front will slip through
the waters Tuesday night, and this will allow winds to turn offshore
at 5 to 10 knots for a brief period.  By Wednesday afternoon, winds
will turn back to the southeast as a broad area of low pressure
begins to form over the central Gulf.  This low will continue to
move toward the area on Thursday and winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots from the southeast as the low strengthens.  Seas will also
increase to 2 to 4 feet as these winds develop.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG