600
FXUS64 KLIX 011856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1256 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - A Light to moderate rain will spread across the area today and
   continue through tonight. Most places are forecast to see
   between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rain. Isolated thunderstorms could
   result in locally higher amounts in the 1-2 inch range.

 - Much colder air will move into the region following this
   system, with the coldest temperatures forecast Wednesday
   morning. Another light freeze is forecast along/north of the
   I-10/12, with generally 3-7 hours of subfreezing temperatures
   forecast.

 - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded
   thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There
   will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this
   system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in
   the 2-3 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in
   the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated
   flood threats will continue to be refined.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light to moderate rain and a few embedded thunderstorms is
beginning to spread into northwestern portions of the area, and
will continue to spread across the remainder of the area as the
afternoon and evening progress. This is in response to an
approaching upper level trough and developing surface low over the
northern Gulf.

The surface low is forecast to remain south of local land areas,
limiting the threat of severe weather as any thunderstorms will
likely not be surface-based. Rainfall totals through tonight are
generally forecast in the 0.5-1.5" range. However, a few
thunderstorms could result in locally higher amounts. Given how
dry the local area has been, not overly concerned about the threat
of flash flooding. However, if a couple thunderstorms move over
any given area in relatively short succession there is at least a
low-end threat of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding.
This will be highly dependent on rainfall rates.

The low should be east of the local area by about midnight tonight
as the upper level trough axis approaches. In the wake of this
system, colder high pressure will once again move into the area
beginning Tuesday, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the
mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tuesday night will be the coldest night as the axis of the surface
high pressure moves over the area. The combination of clear skies
and light to calm winds will allow for efficient radiative
cooling and temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. The
current forecast calls for at least a couple hours of freezing
temperatures for most places along/north of the I-10/12 corridor
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Most of these areas
have already experienced two freezes this season, but we`ll need
to take a look to see if any of the more western areas around
Baton Rouge require freeze headlines.

Wednesday itself will be a day of transition as the surface high
shifts eastward and winds return to and easterly and then
southeasterly direction by Wednesday night. The onshore winds will
gradually bring moisture back into the area, ahead of yet another
storm system.

This second storm system will begin to affect the area Thursday
with a similar setup to what we`re seeing today. A deformation
zone will set up stretching from a cutoff low near Baja across the
Gulf coast and into the middle eastern seaboard as embedded and
positively tilted shortwave disturbances move through the overall
longwave trough dominating the CONUS. The local area will remain
in this favorable area for rain and isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday.

The threat of severe weather currently appears limited. There
could be a brief window for stronger storms Friday during the day,
but it will depend greatly on the position of the surface low and
associated warm front. Currently the warm front does not look like
it will move very far inland, which will keep most thunderstorms
elevated. However, if the low and warm front move farther north,
then the thunderstorm threat could increase as storms become more
surface-based.

Regardless of the severe weather threat, this system looks like it
will bring continued much-needed rain to the area. Two-day totals
are currently forecast in the 2-3.5 inch range. However, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavier rain.
Model forecast soundings indicate that precipitable water will
have rebounded to the 1.5-1.75 inch range by Thursday morning,
which is above the 90th percentile and approaching the daily
maximum observed value. This means any thunderstorms will be
capable of producing efficient rainfall. Wherever these
thunderstorms move, the higher rainfall rates could lead to
ponding and at least a low-end threat of flash flooding. The
specific locations that receive the heaviest rain will depend on
where these thunderstorms move and for the time being, a broad
Marginal risk appears warranted to cover the heavy rain/flash
flood threat Thursday into Friday.

Going into the weekend, there is uncertainty in whether the area
will dry out or remain in an area of scattered showers and
isolated storms as continued fast-moving disturbances move through
the overall troughy pattern in the upper levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

An approaching low pressure system will bring widespread showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms to the area through tonight.
Ample low level moisture will result in generally IFR conditions
at most terminals through Tuesday morning before conditions begin
to improve as dry high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Gulf low will approach the area later today, with gradient
winds of 15-20 knots and widespread rain with a few embedded
thunderstorms. An exercise caution headline remains in effect
through this evening. In the wake of the low, winds will become
north-northwesterly and will strengthen into the 20-25kt range, with
seas responding accordingly. A small craft advisory remains in
effect from late tonight through mid afternoon Tuesday. Winds and
seas will ease late Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure moves
across the area. Another storm system will begin to affect the area
Thursday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms
through Friday night. Additional headlines may be necessary during
this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  48  29  57 / 100   0   0   0
BTR  39  52  32  61 / 100   0   0   0
ASD  43  55  30  61 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  47  56  41  64 /  90   0   0   0
GPT  46  57  34  59 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  45  58  29  60 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM