Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
315 FXUS64 KLIX 250501 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 - A couple stray showers are possible mainly along the coast of SELA today, otherwise dry and benign weather continues. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Small areas of moisture fluxes will continue to move through the southern portion of the area in the easterlies. The current one east of the Miss River will bring precip chances up a bit for the coastal sections of SELA but not much more than 40%. Numbers will be higher over the waters. Otherwise, what you saw yesterday will be what is called for through at least Sunday. Moisture will begin to pool along the stalled backdoor sfc trough that should be very close or over the eastern half of the area by Monday. This could help a few showers get started, but numbers should still remain @/under 20% for now. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Monday night through Wednesday night will see increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence develop over the area as a southern stream shortwave ridge axis slides in from the west. This increased ridging aloft will help push PWATS down to around 1.3 to 1.4 inches as conditions warm and dry in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The weakening lapse rates aloft will also greatly limit instability with MLCAPE falling below 500 J/KG for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The end result will be a continuation of the dry and warm pattern we have been in for the past several days. Highs will continue to run around 5 degrees warmer than average in the lower 90s. Fortunately, the dry air in place will keep heat index values in check with most areas experiencing heat indices peaking in the upper 90s. The dry air will also allow for decent radiational cooling each night. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night. As we move into Thursday and Thursday night, the ridge over the area will push to the east as a vigorous southern stream shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains and Texas. This trough will have deeper tropical moisture associated with it as the remnants of Hurricane Polo merge into the system. Fortunately, the heaviest rainfall on Thursday and Thursday night will remain west of the area, but increasing deep layer southeasterly flow in advance of the trough and a broad region of higher positive vorticity advection will support both PWATS rising back to the median for late September and increasing convective activity. Although there will some support aloft, the convection will be largely diurnal in nature with scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking in the afternoon hours over the region. By Thursday night, most of the activity will dissipate except out over the coastal waters. Temperatures will also be closer to average with highs in the upper 80s on Thursday and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s for Thursday night. HRL && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 VFR through this cycle. Although precip chances are too low to show for HUM, this site will have the only chance of a SHRA today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Winds shift to more easterly today with speeds at or below 20 knots. Wind gusts will get very close to small craft criteria but only very briefly. Seas will generally remain ~2-4ft through the period. Past Saturday marine conditions look benign. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE