Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
510 FXUS64 KLIX 051828 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1228 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 - The biggest concern through Thursday will be fog potential. Patchy fog will be possible each morning through midweek, with more widespread fog potential Thursday morning. Plan ahead for possible travel delays due to low visibility during the morning commute hours. - Another cold front will approach the area Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. It`s too soon to say whether this front will bring a threat of severe weather, although there are some indications of its potential. Residents of the area should continue to monitor the forecast for updates. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 For today and tomorrow a weak upper ridge is influencing the area and contributing to some nice weather. At the surface, a low over the midwest and a relative high over the Gulf are bringing gradient winds out of the south. This is bringing warm, moist air into the area giving us afternoon highs around 70 that feels a bit humid. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s and with the high RH and lower winds fog is a possibility, though a low probability, in the hours around sunrise. All in all, this fairly benign forecast was well represented by the NBM && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Through Friday, we remain under the upper level high pressure, although it will flatten just a bit and take on a zonal feel. Conditions will remain fairly constant with fairly light southerly winds, overnight lows and daytime highs around 60 and the low 70s respectively. The big headline remains the fog and with the continued southerly flow bringing increased moisture the probability of late night to early morning fog increases. On Friday night into early Saturday we see a transition from the upper high to an upper trough bringing a frontal system across the area. This drops low/high temperatures for the weekend into the 40/60 range for Saturday night and Sunday. Associated with the front on Friday is a chance for rain, mainly overnight into Saturday morning, with PoPs in the 60 percent range and total QPF around 1". As of this writing, SPC has a SLGT outlook for severe weather just to our north. There are some indications of elevated shear and if any low level instability develops we could see some strong to severe storms. This is on the far side of our forecast confidence, so details are not at all firm - stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 All terminals at VFR/MVFR with issues coming from lowered CIGs due to stratus deck. This deck is generally in the process of lifting, but the MVFR designation is possible through the day today. Overnight, low stratus will again be present resulting again in MVFR at most terminals. VIS reductions beginning around sunrise to 1/2SM at KBTR and 3/4SM at KMCB are expected for a brief time resulting in IFR conditions. As with today, low stratus deck and any fog are expected to clear by mid tomorrow morning improving conditions to VFR. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Southerly winds at or below 10 kt prevail, with a short turn to westerly Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. These winds support 1 to 2 foot seas. Marine fog is the concern through Friday. The front moving through the area Friday night into Saturday morning will turn winds to northerly and begin building to around 20 kt. This will likely require issuance of Small Craft safety headlines. As with other parts of the forecast package, stay tuned as forecast details resolve over time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 55 74 59 75 / 0 10 10 0 BTR 57 78 62 78 / 0 10 10 0 ASD 54 76 59 76 / 0 0 10 0 MSY 59 78 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 57 73 59 72 / 0 10 10 0 PQL 54 74 58 75 / 0 10 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS