188
FXUS64 KLIX 030546
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Showers possible until about midday.

- Gusty winds ahead of and behind the front will be hazardous for
  small craft over the marine areas. Please avoid navigating
  hazardous conditions if you are in a smaller vessel until Sunday
  morning.

- Little or no rain is expected from Sunday until about Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The axis of the upper trough to our east is well off the Atlantic
Coast. In the southern stream, one shortwave is exiting to the east,
with the next near Oklahoma City. Ridging was over the Intermountain
West with another deep trough off the California coast. At the
surface, a frontal boundary extended from Middle Tennessee into
north Texas. Skies were mostly cloudy across the area late this
evening, with isolated showers from about Interstate 55 eastward,
and temperatures mainly in the 60s.

While the LIX 00z upper air sounding would appear fairly moist with
a precipitable water value of 1.24 inches (around the 80th
percentile), that moisture was mainly between the surface and 850
mb. The LCH and SHV soundings were considerably drier with
precipitable water values in the 0.7 to 0.9 range (50th
percentile).

The Oklahoma shortwave will continue to dive southeastward and cross
the local area during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
This will also pull the cold front through the area by mid-
afternoon. Moisture levels will be decreasing to slightly below an
inch by sunrise. Considering how little cloud cover and
precipitation is occurring upstream, it`s becoming increasingly
difficult to justify much more than isolated precipitation over the
next 12-18 hours. The showers currently on radar are having trouble
even reaching the freezing level, let alone deep enough to produce
lightning. Really tough to see much in the way of precipitation
very much west of Interstate 55 overnight, or south of Interstate
10. No precipitation expected Saturday night through Sunday
night.

The NBM Saturday highs are actually just below the 50th percentile.
Considering we`ve been closer to the 75th the last few days,
wondering if our forecast highs will be warm enough, even with
frontal passage. Wild card will be cloud cover, which is the only
thing restraining me from bumping up high temperatures. If we get
more sunshine than expected during the day, some portions of the
southeast half of the area could touch 80, which might flirt with
a few records. Cold and dry air advection will take hold overnight
into Sunday. Lows Sunday morning are likely to be about 15
degrees cooler than ahead of the front with Monday morning perhaps
a few degrees cooler than that. Highs Sunday aren`t likely to get
much beyond the middle 60s, and maybe not that warm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Ridging will build eastward across the Gulf for Monday through at
least Wednesday. A new trough will lift out of the southern Rockies
toward the end of the week, but timing of that occurring has been
somewhat inconsistent. The earliest that it looks to occur would be
perhaps late Wednesday night or Thursday, but maybe moreso on
Friday. At this point, it appears that the best forcing should be
well to the north of the area with that system.

The workweek next week looks to be rather warm...as much as 15 to 20
degrees above normal. High temperatures will start out around 70 on
Monday, but most of the area is likely to be in the mid to upper 70s
from Tuesday through at least Thursday and probably Friday. The
exception would be areas very close to coastal waters, where water
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s would temper highs a few
degrees. Wouldn`t be surprised at all to see a few spots hit 80
degrees in that Tuesday through Thursday period. Overnight lows for
much of the week could be pretty close to 60, which is actually
close to the normal high for early January.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Most terminals were bouncing between VFR and MVFR at forecast
issuance. Isolated SHRA have developed over the last few hours ahead
of the impulse to the west of the area. One or two tops might be at
FL150, but not much higher than that, so it`s going to be tough to
get TSRA. The threat is non-zero, but will only carry SHRA for now.
IFR ceilings are possible at most terminals overnight and into
Saturday morning. Should see improvement to MVFR by mid-morning.
Main forecast issue for the afternoon hours is the timing of the
exit of low cloud cover. Southern terminals may actually clear well
before the northern ones. Do expect all terminals to go to VFR
conditions prior to the end of the forecast period.

Winds haven`t been quite as strong as expected this evening, and
newest guidance indicates that any impactful wind gusts during the
day on Saturday or Saturday night are likely to be limited to KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Small Craft Advisories and Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines
will remain in effect for most waters into the afternoon hours.
Beyond mid-afternoon, will have Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlines for all waters until around sunrise Sunday. There may a
brief lull in conditions behind the frontal passage until cold
advection increases. But this period isn`t expected to be long
enough to justify lowering headlines entirely.

From Sunday morning onward, conditions should improve, with no
cautionary headlines or advisories anticipated through the end of
the marine forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  42  64  42 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  74  44  67  44 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  77  46  67  43 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  77  51  65  49 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  75  49  66  47 /  40   0   0   0
PQL  76  46  67  43 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ552-570-572-
     575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW