Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
805 FXUS65 KLKN 050807 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1207 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025 * Light rain/snow showers are likely across Northern Nevada today through Saturday afternoon * Gusty winds in Eastern Elko County this afternoon into Saturday morning && .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025 Current forecast is on track. No changes have been made to the current seven day forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Models continue to track a weak shortwave riding upper level northwesterly flow into the area today. High pressure to the west continues to direct northerly flow in its eastern flank across the western CONUS. Vorticity with this system is mediocre at best, but frontogenesis over northern Elko County early this morning will help to initiate snow showers over the area. This FG is collocated with where highest snowfall amounts for valley floors exist in the Owyhee River Basin and along the northern NV border. Models continue to push accumulating snow further south into central NV valleys in northern Eureka and White Pine counties. Better moisture values continue to buoy this notion of snow further south though accumulation totals for valley floors continues to range from a dusting to less than inch. Better accumulations exist for Elko County high elevations and peaks where over a foot of fresh snowpack is forecast, especially for the Ruby Mountains and Jarbidge Wilderness Area. Current model run initiates a temperature warm up earlier this morning as winds back more westerly. This warmup will increase snow levels to about 7500 feet and change precipitation for lower elevations to rainfall. A tighter pressure gradient over northeastern NV will create stronger surface winds Friday evening through Saturday. Cautious driving should be practiced along I-80 and US-93 in Elko County. Moisture advection from the west-northwest reinforces available moisture over the northern half of the state Saturday AM keeping chances for light shower activity over the area through Saturday afternoon. This decrease in moisture is in response to the high pressure to the west encroaching on the SW CONUS Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave slides its axis along the northern NV border though lack of moisture and forcing over the region confines precipitation chances to the northern border. Models are beginning to resolve a large trough impacting the Great Basin towards the end of next week though timing and impacts are beyond the current forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in a weak system that will bring precipitation to northeastern and east- central NV today through Saturday afternoon. Moderate confidence exists in exact timing of snowfall and changeover to rain in the valleys as well as accumulation amounts for elevation regions and peaks in northeastern NV. Low confidence exists in the timing and impacts of a large upper level trough layer next week. No major grid changes are needed at this time. && .AVIATION... Intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions are expected today as CIGs lower and precipitation chances in the form of snow and rain showers increase at KEKO, followed by KBAM, KWMC, and KENV. CIGs will lower to below 1000ft in the presence of rain and snow showers lowering VIS in the process. Precipitation at all terminals except for KTPH is forecast through Friday afternoon. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99