379
FXUS65 KLKN 122007
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
107 PM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level troughing is moving into the West
Coast today with strong southwest flow and surface wind gusts.
Scattered shower and thunderstorms this afternoon will transition
to scattered showers and snow showers tonight, primarily along and
north of Interstate 80 with light accumulations. Scattered
showers and mountain snow showers continue through Wednesday
before the trough finally moves off to the east. High pressure
builds across the area Tuesday and Wednesday with quieter
conditions. Unsettled weather looks to return this weekend with
the next upper-level system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night

A strong cold front is currently moving southeastward into the
area, currently over Humboldt County as of early this afternoon.
With weak instability of around 100 J/kg over this area, there is
a 20% chance for thunder across far northwestern Humboldt County.
Otherwise, strong southwest winds will be the main story today
thanks to a strong upper-level jet moving southwest to northeast
across the Great Basin. Any showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of mixing winds down to the surface, with a wide swath of
Wind Advisories still in effect for Central Nevada through 10 PM
this evening. Greatest confidence for Advisory-level wind gusts
is across White Pine County with a 90% chance at Ely for 45 mph or
greater peak wind gusts this afternoon. Secure any loose outdoor
objects that may blow away. Patchy blowing dust is also possible,
though strongest winds will be further to the east today than
yesterday with slightly greater vegetation coverage, which should
mitigate conditions.

Temperatures quickly drop through the night with scattered showers
transition to scattered showers and snow showers as snow levels
drop to around 5600 feet, though no accumulations on roadways are
expected. Lows tonight drop 35 to 40 degrees into the low to mid
30s. Winds will also ease enough to lead to patchy frost
formation, except for northern Nye and White Pine Counties.

Much cooler tomorrow with highs mostly in the 50s with scattered
showers developing thanks to the upper-level trough axis moving
overhead with steep mid-level lapse rates. Greatest chance for
thunder mostly north of I-80 in northern Eureka, Lander, and Elko
Counties around 30%. Lows drop into the low to mid 30s as
scattered showers mix with more snow showers once again, though no
roadway accumulations are expected.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

Upper level troughing exits to the east on Wednesday, leaving cool
temperatures and drying weather behind it. Some showers linger
through Wednesday evening in Elko county, and high temperatures
will be in the 60s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s.
Dry and warming across the forecast area on Thursday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and a few 70s, while
overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Still mostly
dry for Friday, but some isolated showers begin to mix into
Humboldt and northern Elko counties ahead of the next system. A
new upper level trough/closed low will travel along the edges of a
building Pacific high pressure system to begin its passage over
the forecast area on Saturday, setting off a new round of
widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Showers begin to exit
to the east on Sunday, leaving only a few showers lingering on the
Utah border by late Sunday night. After that, the Pacific high
looks to set up in a blocking pattern leaving northwest flow over
the forecast area for what could be an extended period. As a
result, Monday looks to be mostly dry and cool, with shower
chances continuing along the Utah border and temperatures a few
degrees below normal, in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period with strong
west-southwest winds from 20 to 30 kt, gusting to 40 kt through
the 04-06Z timeframe. Winds will shift to the northwest as a cold
front moves south and east across the region, with winds easing
behind the front. More widespread CIGs from 00-12Z, though less
than a 15% chance for MVFR thresholds. Scattered showers and snow
showers at KWMC, KEKO, and KBAM with a 20-30% confidence level.
Cannot rule out patchy blowing dust and VSBY restrictions as well
with the winds this afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong west-southwest winds with gusts to 50 mph at times this
afternoon, gradually shifting to the northwest as a cold front
moves southeastward across the region. Min RH values from 10 to
15% across zones 420, 425, 426, and 427. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms (25% chance for thunder over northwest zone 437).
Scattered rain and snow showers tonight, with more scattered
showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday and Wednesday with light
precipitation amounts of up to two tenths of an inch.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening Northeastern Nye...
Northwestern Nye...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range in
Elko...South Central Elko...Southeastern Elko...Southern Lander
and Southern Eureka...White Pine.

&&

$$

84/94/84/84