719
FXUS66 KLOX 121754
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
954 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/201 AM.

Dry conditions with a warming trend are expected today through
Saturday. A strong storm system will affect the region starting
on Sunday and Monday, bringing the potential for heavy
precipitation with flooding and mountain snow, thunderstorms,
strong winds, as well as marine and beach hazards. These
conditions could last through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...12/851 AM.

***UPDATE***

There is still some low clouds and fog which developed overnight
across the southern Salinas Valley and Carrizo Plain due to
saturated soils from recent rains. These conditions could return
late tonight into the morning hours on Friday for similar areas.
Light offshore flow & some warming (3-6F) is expected tomorrow.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no issues in the short-
term.

***From Previous Discussion***

An upper low still sits over the Bay Area with a trough extending
southwest to near 20n/130w. The southern extent of the trough is
generating some convective activity and pushing mid and high
level moisture northeast into southwest California but chances are
almost zero that there will be any additional shower activity
south of SLO County today or anytime before Sunday. Chances are
slightly higher to the north as the upper low over the Bay Area is
close enough to possibly swing a light shower through that area
today. But for the most part dry and warmer weather is expected
today and continuing through at least Saturday. The warmest days
will be Friday and Saturday when light offshore flow combined with
a return to high pressure aloft will push highs to the low to mid
70s across the coastal valleys south of LA/Ventura Counties and
60s to low 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/327 AM.

At least three distinct storm systems are expected to move through
southwest California next week, the first one arriving sometime
Sunday, likely later in the day or possibly even holding off until
early Monday for LA/Ventura Counties. Timing for this and the
following storms will be refined as we get closer to arrival. In
the meantime, the first system appears to be the strongest in
terms of overall rainfall amounts and rain rates. Similar to the
last storm, it`s moving at a fast clip, but it`s a larger storm so
it will take longer to move through than the last one. It also has
some diffluence aloft and that will create stronger updrafts and
heavier rain as well as possible convective activity. PW`s are
averaging around 1" on Monday with some of the ensembles
indicating closer to 1.2" which would be over the 95th
percentile. Most coast/valley areas should see at least 1-2" of
rain Monday and twice that in the mountains. This will generate
the usual assortment of hydrologic hazards like ponding of water
on roads and minor mudslides in the canyons. There is about a 20%
chance that this first storm will generate amounts that are in the
1.50-3.00" and 3-6" range if the higher end ensembles pan out.

Snow levels with this first system look like they should remain
above 6000 feet for most of the storm`s duration, but that could
still result in significant snow accumulations over the higher
mountains.

At least a couple more systems will come through the area Tuesday
and Wednesday with decreasing PW`s but also much colder air and
lowering snow levels. 500mb temps drop to -32 over the Central
Coast Wednesday morning which will create an increasingly
convective environment with scattered thunderstorms possible and
also snow levels down to 3000 feet or possibly even slightly
lower. Rain amounts in this scenario would be much more variable,
but the potential for rain rates to exceed debris flow thresholds
would be much higher due to the increasing convective threat.

Interests across the local area are encouraged to monitor the
latest information from the National Weather Service in
Los Angeles/Oxnard, California, as forecast details become
refined over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1753Z.

At 1625Z, there was a moist layer to around 2000 ft, and a very
weak inversion to 3000 ft with a temperature of 11 degrees C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs except for KPRB, where there is a 45%
chance for VLIFR conds and a 20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at
coastal sites after 06Z. after 12Z. Moderate confidence in winds
over the period. There is a 15% chance for north winds 5-10 kt at
KSBA 07Z-16Z. For all sites, wind gusts up to 10 kt higher at
possible this afternoon through early evening.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds through at least 12Z. Then a
15% chance for VV002 and 1/2SM conds 12Z-18Z, although light (less
than 4 kt) north winds overnight will likely limit any stratus
formation. 30% chance for west wind gusts reaching 20 kt between
22Z and 03Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...There is a 30 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions
in ground fog through 16Z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
No wind impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...12/851 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Lower confidence in
the forecast for seas versus winds.

A series of storm systems will move over the coastal waters early
next week, bringing hazardous winds and seas along with rain and
a low chance of thunderstorms. Confidence is growing in dangerous
marine conditions across the coastal waters, thus it is
encouraged to think about altering plans during this timeframe.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, winds and seas
should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through
this afternoon, then SCA level northwest to north winds will
increase rapidly through this evening. There will be a 60-80
percent chance of SCA winds by this evening, continuing into
Friday afternoon and evening. There is a 30 percent chance of a
lull in the winds on Friday morning. Winds will diminish through
Friday night and into Saturday. There is an increasing chance of
SCA level winds between Saturday night and Sunday night with
widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas) likely (60-80 percent
chance) by Sunday, and a 80-100 percent chance by Sunday night.
There is a 30-50 percent chance of GALES between Sunday night and
Tuesday.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels through Friday morning, but there is
a low to moderate (20-30 percent) chance of SCA level northeast
winds from late tonight through early Friday morning. Then, there
is a high to likely (50-60 percent) chance of SCA level northerly
winds developing between Friday morning and Friday evening. Winds
will diminish through Friday night and into Saturday. There is an
increasing chance of SCA level winds between Saturday night and
Sunday night with widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas)
likely (60-80 percent chance) by Sunday, and a 80-100 percent
chance by Sunday night. There is a moderate to high (30-50
percent) chance of GALES between Sunday night and Tuesday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through this afternoon, then there is a high to
likely (50-70 percent) chance of SCA level winds, particularly
affecting the western two-thirds of the Channel west of Anacapa
Island, in the vicinity of Point Dume, and south into the San
Pedro Channel. Winds will diminish tonight and early Friday, then
there is a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds
developing again for Friday afternoon and evening. Winds should
diminish through Friday night and into Sunday, then there is an
increasing chance of SCA level winds between Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night with widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas)
likely (60-80 percent chance) by Sunday night, and a 80-100
percent chance by Monday night. There is a low to moderate (20-40
percent) chance of GALES between late Sunday night and Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...12/312 AM.

After a lull, surf and swell will build again at area beaches
through Friday night. There is a high to likely (50-70 percent)
chance of a high surf advisory being needed, especially west and
northwest facing shores, from Friday afternoon through Saturday.

A period of very large waves continues to be advertised by the
latest swell model guidance early next week. There is a high to
likely (50-70 percent) chance of widespread high surf between
Monday and Thursday as a combination of southwesterly and west-
northwesterly swells arrive along the California coastline. Sets
above 10 feet will be possible across all beaches, but there is a
higher chances for west to northwest facing shores. There is a
20-30 percent chance of damaging sets developing between Tuesday
night and Wednesday night, highest for northwest-facing shores
along the Central Coast.

Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide
with the arrival of the higher surf and swell with storm system
early next week. This will bring an elevated chance of coastal
flooding, or at the very least, minor tidal overflows during times
of the highest high tides each evening. A coastal flood advisory
may be needed should swell guidance indicate similar surf and
swell and locally wind-driven swell affect the beaches and
coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 2 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Friday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to
      midnight PST tonight for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM
      PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM PST Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black/MW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...Hall/BL
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox