196
FXUS66 KLOX 130015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
515 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026

***UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION***

.SYNOPSIS...12/1256 PM.

Several degrees of cooling are expected through Wednesday as an
upper low moves through northern California. Low clouds and fog
will move into the coastal valleys with clouds lingering at some
coastal areas through today. Gusty winds are expected times across
the mountains and deserts. Slight warming is expected Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...12/1256 PM.

The marine layer has deepened significantly since yesterday,
accounting for nearly all of the cooling trends over this time
especially for coastal valleys. Low clouds will likely stick
around most of the day for many areas west of the mountains thanks
to strong onshore flow and strong inversion. Isolated mid level
clouds have started to develop over some interior mountains. This
is evidence of the weak moisture intrusion from the southeast that
will support about a 5 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm
to interior mountains and valleys, especially northern Ventura
into northeast Santa Barbara Counties. Dry lightning fire starts
and gusty winds would be the greatest concern if a thunderstorm
were to form.

A weak trough passing overhead will boost the marine layer
another 1000 feet or so to 3000-4000 feet into Wednesday. Sending
the cooling trends experienced today further inland with
temperatures near normal for this time of year. The additional
deepening may support spotty drizzle especially into foothill to
lower mountain locals. One more day of slow to no clearing of low
clouds is likely Wednesday, especially into the coastal slopes as
a reverse clearing (clearing at the coast before the
valleys/foothills) day is possible.

Breezy northwest to southwest winds will is expected afternoon to
evening, possibly boosting to near advisory levels for areas prone
to northwest winds (southwest Santa Barbara County & I-5 corridor
in the mountains) Wednesday evening and again as early as Friday
afternoon.

Weak ridging building into the region will likely shrink the
marine layer closer to the coast and lead to warming trends
Thursday and Friday, but no where near the heat we saw just
yesterday.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...12/1256 PM.

Below normal confidence this weekend into early next week as a
sharp trough (for May) is poised to pass nearby. An inland track
(50 percent chance) would lead to near normal temperatures with
breezy winds nearing advisory levels for some interior areas such
as the mountains near the I-5 corridor and southwest Santa Barbara
County into Saturday or Sunday with the potential for offshore
winds with decent warming and drying trends into Monday. A close
pass (30 percent chance) would lead to gusty and probably advisory
northerly winds for the interior and mostly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0014Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2900 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 5600 ft with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions at KPMD & KWJF through at least
Tuesday. Moderate confidence that the current gusty winds will
improve by 04Z but will remain steady through the night.

High confidence in ceilings at all other airports tonight
into Tuesday, with MVFR most common. Brief IFR ceilings are
possible almost everywhere 10-15Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence through 18Z Tuesday in ceiling category
and timing (plus or minus 3 hours). Low confidence on timing of
any clearing. High confidence in any east winds staying under 8
knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in ceiling category and timing (plus
or minus 3 hours). High confidence in any east winds staying
under 8 knots.

&&

.MARINE...12/148 PM.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Wednesday morning.

SCA conditions (winds and seas) are expected to develop across
the northern Outer Waters Wednesday afternoon, expanding in
coverage to include all Outer Waters by Wednesday night.

These hazardous conditions will persist into the weekend reaching
portions of inner waters (along the Central Coast and SB Channel)
at times.

GALE Force winds will be possible across the outer waters as
early as Thursday afternoon, with highest (30-50 percent) chances
on Saturday into Sunday.

Seas will continue to build into the weekend peaking 10-15 ft
across the outer waters.

(For this weekend)

The combination of high winds and seas could result in hazardous
surfing conditions and minor coastal flooding especially across
more unprotected west-facing beaches such as along the Ventura
coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT
      Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 AM
      PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM
      PDT Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM
      PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox