Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
385 FXUS64 KLUB 311122 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire forecast area until 10 AM CDT Sunday. - A few additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but generally drier weather is expected through the first half of the upcoming week. - Storm chances return Wednesday and continue through the second half of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Water vapor channel imagery highlights a notable southward shift in the area of best mid/upper level moisture early this morning compared to this time yesterday. Pockets of isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms still remain possible overnight through about mid-morning, but overall it appears that generally weak large scale forcing for ascent will keep coverage of storms relatively limited through early this morning compared to 24 hours ago. After any morning shower or storm activity dissipates by midday, the rest of today is expected to be fairly quiet weather-wise as midlevel heights rise slightly with our area being on the eastern periphery of building ridging aloft centered over the Desert SW. Temperatures are nevertheless expected to be a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday given northeasterly surface flow, with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. This afternoon and evening, there is a slim chance an isolated storm or two develops over western portions of the South Plains and SW TX Panhandle in better proximity to lingering moisture trapped beneath the ridge, but this activity should be short-lived and limited in coverage. The majority of the forecast area currently looks likely to remain dry this afternoon through tonight, with a quiet overnight period and seasonable lows. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The general synoptic pattern will remain fairly stagnant through much of the upcoming week with large-amplitude ridging positioned over the Four Corners and most of the Intermountain West and deep cyclonic flow persisting over the eastern half of the CONUS. Although this setup will result in an extended period of northwest flow aloft over our region, the forecast continues to remain generally quiet during the first half of the week with models in good agreement that a relatively dry airmass will remain overhead through Tuesday. Still, enough residual moisture may persist along the edge of the ridging to our west to support a couple of short- lived storms on Monday evening, but this activity should remain isolated and given low confidence will keep PoPs below mentionable levels at this time. Despite the center of the ridging aloft centering to our west, sfc-500mb layer thickness will not decrease much which will keep high temperatures near average each afternoon from Monday through Wednesday. Storm chances may increase slightly from Wednesday evening through the end of the week as flow aloft strengthens in response to a substantial shortwave or closed low diving southward over the Upper Midwest, but predictability at this range is low. Also uncertain during the late week period is temperatures with some indications of the western ridge expanding eastward and other model solutions highlighting more expansive troughing extending over our area. Will maintain blended guidance for both PoPs and temperatures given the uncertainty, but ensemble consensus still favors a warmer than average end to the week at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Scattered TS working their way to the south and southeast across the forecast area will require a TS mention in each terminal for the first two to three hours of the TAF period. In addition, patchy low clouds vicinity KLBB and KPVW and a little more widespread stratus KCDS will require a mention as well. However, by late morning VFR conditions with TS south of the terminals are expected. Any additional TS development later today is likely to be to the south of the terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07