371
FXUS64 KLUB 211809
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
109 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Triple digit heat will continue through at least the middle of
   next week, with record-challenging highs likely this weekend.

 - A few isolated thunderstorms are expected over the next few
   evenings, but most locations will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Water vapor imagery at midday Friday shows a familiar pattern with
broad upper ridging centered near the Four Corners and a belt of
modestly unsettled northwest flow aloft positioned over the central
and northern plains states. A few small disturbances are visible
rounding the edge of the ridge to our north and east, but will
remain too distant to provide much in the way of large-scale forcing
for ascent. Still, given the very strong diurnal heating
(temperatures off the Caprock on the way to 105+), convective
temperatures will easily be breached this afternoon with forecast
soundings depicting minimal inhibition. As a result, we do expect a
few isolated storms to develop today, but confidence in exactly
where these occur is low and could be essentially anywhere across
the forecast area. Storms which do develop will be capable of brief
downpours and strong wind gusts, but this activity should dissipate
quickly after sunset resulting in a quiet and mild overnight period.

Saturday will turn out very similar to today given a similar
synoptic setup, although highs will likely be a few degrees warmer
given a slight eastward shift of the ridge aloft. With temperatures
again reaching the 105 to 109 degree range near and east of I-27, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for roughly the the eastern half of
our forecast area for Saturday afternoon. Another round of isolated
to perhaps scattered storms also appears likely heading into
Saturday evening, with the best chances favoring the SE TX Panhandle
as a modified outflow boundary moves southward over western OK.
Storm chances decrease farther west, but strong heating could again
result in a couple of isolated short-lived cells elsewhere as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Summer heat continues through much of the next seven days, with
Sunday and Monday currently expected to be the hottest days of the
forecast period. Highs will easily surpass 105 off the Caprock both
days, and may even exceed extreme heat criteria of 110 as well.
Current NBM probs indicate about a 40-70% chance of exceeding 110
degrees mainly in the lower elevations near and just west of
Childress on both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Most areas on the
Caprock will likely top out near or just above 105, which is
still nearing record highs this time of year. Storm chances will
fall back below 10 percent during this time as well given
unfavorable positioning of the ridge directly overhead. Model
consensus then indicates that the ridge will flatten and shift
back westward toward the middle of the week which will bring a
very modest decrease in temperatures, although highs will remain
above normal. Depending on the exact position of the ridge, storm
chances may also increase by Wednesday or Thursday as modest
northwest flow aloft reestablishes over the region, but potential
for widespread rainfall still appears very low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032-
036>038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ024>026-
030>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51