433
FXUS64 KLZK 221728
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1228 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Cooler temperatures expected the next several days

- Low (20-30%) rain chances return late this weekend into early
  next week.

- No improvement in wildfire danger and drought conditions
  expected over the next 7 days


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The much anticipated cold front has pushed south across the state
as of early this morning. The much cooler and drier air is lagging
behind the front by several hundred miles, but as sfc ridging
builds south over the next couple of days the more pleasant
conditions will be observed. For today, a few lingering showers
are possible in the wake of the front but coverage is expected to
remain limited in nature.

Sfc ridging is expected to persist from the Great Lakes southward
across much of the eastern US through the week as an H500 cutoff
low continues to rotate off the east coast. This persistent sfc
ridging will provide low level flow out of the E/NE across the
state and will help keep temperatures steady through much of the
period.

Precip chances through the period remain very low and won`t
appear in the forecast until the weekend. With this in mind, there
just isn`t much hope in sight for beneficial rainfall that could
improve ongoing drought conditions and wildfire danger.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Satellite imagery early this afternoon reveals a low level stratus
deck slowly moving southwest across the region. This will lead to
brief MVFR ceilings through ~20Z. Winds will be out of the north-
northeast around 10 knots through much of this TAF cycle. An
occasional gust from 15-20 knots is possible this afternoon.
Otherwise, there is a low chance for patchy MVFR fog early
Wednesday morning for HRO/BPK. VFR conditions return shortly after
sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         66  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  80  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  88  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  65  87  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     68  88  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  59  82  56  81 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        62  84  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     64  88  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   64  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         61  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      65  88  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...99/TC