094
FXUS64 KLZK 121024
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
524 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

-Dominant upper level ridge will persist over Arkansas leading
 above average temperatures and below average chances for
 precipitation for the majority of the forecast period.

-An upper level trough will approach the Central Plains late next
 week and bring a low-end chance of precipitation to northern Arkansas,
 but model guidance confidence remains low in relation to this
 event.

-Fair, dry, and above average temperatures for mid-Sptember will
 continue to be the theme of the forecast period.

-Expect the worsening of drought conditions over the next week as
 hot and dry conditions have a high confidence of persisting over
 the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

The center of a region of upper lvl ridging will slide eastward from
over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS to over the Mid-South
region of the CONUS transitioning into next week. In response, an
overall warming trend will commence across the CWA and state of
Arkansas for the duration of the forecast period.

Expect temperatures to slowly increase through the forecast period.
High temperatures across a few locations into this weekend and
remaining into next week will reach the mid to upper 90s across a
large portion of Arkansas. Heat index values will increase slightly
to values at or just slightly below 100 degrees; the dry air-mass in
place will keep heat index values from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria, but these elevated values should be taken into
consideration, especially if outdoors for an appreciable amount of
time during the max heating of the day.

Late next week, a weak upper lvl trof will approach the region, this
is at the end of the forecast period and model guidance has deemed
this feature with low confidence in terms of placement and
intensity. If this low chance of PoPs does come into fruition,
rainfall would be isolated and rainfall totals would be limited.

A concern over the next seven days across the CWA and state of
Arkansas will be the worsening drought conditions. A combination of
hot and dry weather conditions will continue to dry out fuels across
the state and contribute to an overall greater risk of grassfire and
wildfire danger.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Expect VFR flight category for the duration of the forecast period
from Friday morning through Saturday morning with the one exception
of VSBY at KADF. The VSBY at KADF will be impacted by patchy, dense
fog for the first few hours of the forecast period which has been
represented in a TEMPO group with IFR flight category before KADF
returns to VFR flight category by later Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  67  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         95  67  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       94  68  94  67 /   0   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    96  69  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  94  70  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     97  70  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      95  68  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  96  67  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        96  68  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     96  68  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   97  70  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         96  67  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      94  69  95  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74