394
FXUS64 KLZK 302333
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

-Oppressive heat will continue today and again on Friday

-Isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms possible again today
 and Friday afternoon/evening, with a Marginal Risk forecast for
 Friday

-In the wake of a cold front, which is forecast to move across
 Arkansas on Friday into early Saturday, temperatures which will
 be overall a few degrees below normal will occupy the state from
 Saturday through Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

THURSDAY (TODAY):

A stationary boundary will remain draped across the state of
Arkansas throughout the day and make little progress tracking
southwestward. POP chances will remain elevated across parts of the
state during the afternoon hours. Coverage of rain and isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected to be less overall than the
scattered convection noted across much of the state yesterday.

A Heat Advisory will be in place across a large portion of Arkansas
today, especially across the southwestern two-thirds of the state,
including the Little Rock metro area. Air temperatures across the
state are forecast to vary from the mid 80s to low 90s in northern
Arkansas, low to mid 90s in central Arkansas, and low to mid 90s in
southern Arkansas. Despite the overall relief from triple-digit air
temperatures across the state, dewpoint temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 70s in locations along and ahead of the boundary
which will equate to heat index values exceeding 105 degrees within
the advisory area. It is worth to note that progression of the
frontal boundary southwestward farther than expected and/or coverage
of widespread rain and storm activity may warrant the early
cancellation of the Heat Advisory, but the practice of heat safety
will still be needed within the advisory area.

FRIDAY:

The stationary boundary draped across Arkansas is progged to track
back northeastward across Arkansas as a warm front. Additionally, a
surface low pressure center will be tracking across central Missouri
throughout the day on Friday with an attendant trailing cold front
extending southwestward into Oklahoma. A modest warm sector will
open up across the state of Arkansas as the combination of the
departing warm front and approaching cold front will create a
parameter space via advecting southwesterly winds at the surface
which will promote an influx of moisture and warming temperatures
across the state during the day. The atmosphere will become
conditionally unstable on Friday afternoon into Friday evening and
latest model guidance signifies a corridor of potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the advancing cold front
as it swings across the northern half of Arkansas, specifically
north-central and northeastern parts of the state. CAMS models
within this timescale indicate an atmosphere conducive for possible
damaging wind gusts via DCAPE values of 1,300 to 1,500 J/kg, MLCAPE
between 1,500 and 2,500 J/kg. Furthermore, far north-central and far
northeastern Arkansas will need to be monitored closely for a
conditional tornado potential as low level shear will be adequate
along with enhanced vertical vorticity. The Storm Prediction Center
has much of northern Arkansas within a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather on Friday as confidence has increased, but
monitoring of this region will remain warranted as storm mode,
placement, and timing will greatly impact the potential severe
weather event which remains conditional overall. Stay tuned for
possible increasing confidence along with updates, especially as
both instability and shear look to be in place for this potential
severe weather event.

Expect a region of strong to severe storms to be possible on Friday
afternoon into Friday night across the northern half of Arkansas. At
the moment, the primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

A cooler and drier airmass is anticipated to occupy the state behind
the cold front which is forecast to move across the state on Friday.
At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region and overall
temperatures near to below normal will be observed over this three-
day stretch. The cold front is expected to completely clear
Arkansas, but become a stationary front within the Mid-South region
of the CONUS which will keep limited opportunities for POPs in play
across eastern Arkansas given the close proximity of the boundary to
the eastern tier of the state.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An elongated upper lvl ridge begins to strengthen over the entire
southern tier of the CONUS extending from over the Southwestern
region of the CONUS to over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. At
the sfc, high pressure moves into the region. Consequently,
temperatures begin to increase overall and a hot and dry pattern
will once again take control of the forecast. Into the middle of the
upcoming week, heat product will once again likely be warranted and
POP chances will diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Isolated thunderstorms continue over the western parts of the
state this evening. This activity should diminish over the next
several hours. Additional showers and storms will impact the
northern TAF sites on Friday. Outside of convection, ceilings will
remain VFR.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-
042>045-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ031>034-039-
042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...ANS