857
FXUS64 KLZK 060743
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

-Scattered to widespread rain chances will return to the forecast
today, particularly across the eastern half of the state.

-Some locally greater rainfall totals of two to three inches (or
more) appear possible across eastern to northeastern Arkansas Monday
night, and some local flash flooding issues could arise.

-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late
 week in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, with settled
 weather prevailing thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Latest mesoanalysis early Mon mrng depicted broad, and highly
positively tilted H500 troughing extending acrs much of the CONUS,
w/ ridging residing over the Ern and NErn US coastline. At the sfc,
inverted sfc pressure troughing was noted, extending SW to NE fm the
OK/TX panhandle region, towards the Upper Midwest. DTd/dt analyses
and current sfc obs show sfc dewpoints have increased into the mid
60s acrs Srn AR, and incrsg moisture trends should continue into the
day today as low level Srly to SErly flow and asctd WAA/isentropic
ascent continues.

As has been advertised, covg of precipitation, mainly scattered
showers and some thunderstorms should begin to incrs acrs SErn to
Ern AR later Mon mrng, and continue to expand acrs the Ern half of
the state thru this aftn. As of the 06/00Z short-term guidance, QPF
progs have increased acrs the Ern half of the state. Uncertainties
still remain for now, and the approximate location of the highest
QPF footprint may depend on where a modest H850 LLJ develops acrs
the Mid-South later Mon evng. Currently, base-blended guidance
suggests a broad footprint of up to one inch of rainfall over much
of Ern to NErn AR, with some locally higher totals. HREF/REFS 90th
percentile guidance suggests a broader QPF footprint of at least two
inches over the same region, w/ embedded maxes in excess of three
inches possible, and this could certainly be attainable given the
anomalous moisture expected to be in place.

Given that much of Ern to NErn AR remains in low to moderate drought
condns, the impact of any excessive rainfall may be somewhat
mitigated due to a higher tolerance and necessity of rainfall, but
some isolated flash flooding could still arise where and if training
becomes the most problematic, and if rainfall amounts approach some
of the 00Z deterministic QPF output, e.g., local rainfall amounts
in excess of five to six inches.

Rainfall chances should continue into Tues as a cdfrnt fm the Great
Plains slowly moves into the state thru the day. Covg of PoPs should
taper off fm NW to SE thru Tues evng as drier air and broad sfc high
pressure settles over the Cntrl US.

By Wed, the aforementioned sfc high pressure wl be shifting Ewrd
towards the Great Lakes and NErn US, w/ the FA residing on the SWrn
periphery of the sfc high. Under NErly sfc winds, settled wx condns
wl prevail thru the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Primarily VFR conditions were ongoing acrs the FA, w/ MVFR CIGs
beginning to advance into SErn AR. Expect covg of precip,
including TS/SHRA to incrs fm SErn to Cntrl Ern and NErn AR thru
Mon mrng and into Mon aftn. Best chances for seeing convection
will remain across the Ern half of the state. Expanding covg of
MVFR CIGs wl be noted acrs most terminals by later Mon mrng, w/
IFR CIGs expected over SErn to Cntrl AR. Reduced VISBYs wl also
lkly accompany precip thru Mon aftn to evng, w/ Erly winds
prevailing thru the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  65  81  60 /  80  70  50  20
Camden AR         80  67  84  65 /  70  30  50  10
Harrison AR       81  63  79  57 /  40  20  20  10
Hot Springs AR    80  67  83  64 /  60  30  40  10
Little Rock   AR  77  68  81  64 /  70  50  40  10
Monticello AR     81  68  85  66 /  80  40  50  10
Mount Ida AR      81  66  85  63 /  40  30  40  10
Mountain Home AR  81  65  81  58 /  50  40  20  10
Newport AR        78  69  80  63 /  90  80  50  10
Pine Bluff AR     81  68  83  65 /  80  50  40  10
Russellville AR   82  68  86  64 /  50  30  30  10
Searcy AR         78  68  82  63 /  80  60  50  20
Stuttgart AR      79  70  82  65 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72