091
FXUS64 KLZK 240559
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1159 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Unsettled weather returns early Monday through Tuesday morning;
  heavy rainfall is possible over west/southwest Arkansas

- Substantial cool down and dry weather is expected Wednesday
  through Friday

- Statewide rain chances possible by Saturday/Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus was currently in place across most of AR early this
Sunday morning. Temps ranged from the upper 40s to upper 50s. This
afternoon, winds will become E/SErly at around 10 mph with clouds
decreasing into the evening. Statewide high temps should be in
the 60s today.

Heading into Monday, a potent upper trough and closed low will eject
into the Cntrl/Nrn Plains from the Srn Rockies. Near surface
cyclogenesis should spur in lee of the Rockies over the Cntrl
Plains. Large scale forcing for ascent will begin to overspread the
Srn MS Valley within background SWrly flow. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop from forced ascent coupled
with passing upper level energy. Convection should initially fire
up over Wrn OK and Wrn TX on Sunday before spreading Ewrd into AR.

PoP chances will increase markedly over Wrn AR during the predawn
hours on Monday. This activity will translate Ewrd Monday night
into Tuesday morning. An open warm sector will attempt to lift
Nwrd into S and SE AR as a surface low over the Cntrl/Nrn Plains
continues to deepen. The main question will be how far N does the
unstable air mass advect before precip arrives from the W. For
now, if storms were to become strong to severe, portions of Srn
AR would be most favored. Given this, SPC Day 2 outlook already
highlighted Srn AR with a slight risk of severe storms on
Monday/Monday night. All modes of severe could be possible.

QPF deterministic forecasts are settling in on 1-3" rainfall with
highest totals over W and SW AR. Probabilistic ensemble guidance
depicts 40->90% of >1" through Tuesday, 30-70% of >2" for SW
2/3rds of the state, and a limited area of 20-40% of >3" over the
Ouachita Mtns into Wrn portions of the AR River Valley. The
Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights an area roughly defined by
the >2" rainfall footprint with a slight risk of flash flooding
Monday into Monday night.

A cold front will sweep across the state on Tuesday abruptly
ending precipitation from NW to SE. A secondary, more potent, cold
front will push across the state Wednesday morning. Winds on
Wednesday will be breezy out of the N/NW thanks to tight PGF in
place. Strong area of high pressure will settle into the region on
Thursday beneath NW flow aloft. Temps will transition from near
record warmth of late, to below average Wednesday through Friday.
No rainfall is expected during this period of time while high
pressure is in control. Low temps could be at or below freezing
across a good portion of the state Thursday morning and Nrn AR
Friday morning. High temps Wednesday through Friday should range
from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Late in the period, upper level flow should transition to zonal on
Friday, then SWrly flow takes shape on Saturday. Potential upper
level energy traversing background SW flow in association with a
cold front should trigger showers and perhaps thunderstorms across
the Srn Plains/Srn MS Valley. Inherently a lot of uncertainty
remains with the latter portion of the period so its always best
to follow the forecast as next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conds should deteriorate, from NW to SE to MVFR/IFR, through
the morning hours. During the day on Mon, LIFR/IFR conds should
prevail. SHRA/TSRA will increase in coverage from W to E, starting
around 08z, then expand Ewrd reaching all terminals by 15z.
Precip is expected much of the day. Additional TSRA will be
possible in the afternoon over Srn sites. SHRA should begin to
diminish from NW to SE starting in the afternoon at KHRO and KBPK.
Over SE AR, precip should linger through the entire TAF period.
Winds should be E/SE around 10kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  45  59  52 /   0  10 100  80
Camden AR         63  48  64  56 /   0  20  90  90
Harrison AR       65  46  57  50 /   0  50  90  40
Hot Springs AR    65  48  60  54 /   0  60 100  70
Little Rock   AR  63  49  60  55 /   0  30  90  90
Monticello AR     60  50  69  61 /   0  10  80  90
Mount Ida AR      61  48  61  52 /   0  70 100  60
Mountain Home AR  64  45  57  50 /   0  40  90  60
Newport AR        58  48  59  55 /   0  10 100  90
Pine Bluff AR     64  48  64  56 /   0  20  90 100
Russellville AR   65  49  59  53 /   0  60 100  60
Searcy AR         63  46  59  52 /   0  20 100  90
Stuttgart AR      63  49  62  57 /   0  10  90  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ005>008-014>017-
024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70