937
FXUS64 KLZK 062226 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
526 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

-Scattered to widespread rain chances will return to the forecast
today, particularly across the eastern half of the state.

-Some locally greater rainfall totals of two to three inches (or
more) appear possible across eastern to northeastern Arkansas Monday
night, and some local flash flooding issues could arise.

-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late
 week in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, with settled
 weather prevailing thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Latest mesoanalysis early Mon mrng depicted broad, and highly
positively tilted H500 troughing extending acrs much of the CONUS,
w/ ridging residing over the Ern and NErn US coastline. At the sfc,
inverted sfc pressure troughing was noted, extending SW to NE fm the
OK/TX panhandle region, towards the Upper Midwest. DTd/dt analyses
and current sfc obs show sfc dewpoints have increased into the mid
60s acrs Srn AR, and incrsg moisture trends should continue into the
day today as low level Srly to SErly flow and asctd WAA/isentropic
ascent continues.

As has been advertised, covg of precipitation, mainly scattered
showers and some thunderstorms should begin to incrs acrs SErn to
Ern AR later Mon mrng, and continue to expand acrs the Ern half of
the state thru this aftn. As of the 06/00Z short-term guidance, QPF
progs have increased acrs the Ern half of the state. Uncertainties
still remain for now, and the approximate location of the highest
QPF footprint may depend on where a modest H850 LLJ develops acrs
the Mid-South later Mon evng. Currently, base-blended guidance
suggests a broad footprint of up to one inch of rainfall over much
of Ern to NErn AR, with some locally higher totals. HREF/REFS 90th
percentile guidance suggests a broader QPF footprint of at least two
inches over the same region, w/ embedded maxes in excess of three
inches possible, and this could certainly be attainable given the
anomalous moisture expected to be in place.

Given that much of Ern to NErn AR remains in low to moderate drought
condns, the impact of any excessive rainfall may be somewhat
mitigated due to a higher tolerance and necessity of rainfall, but
some isolated flash flooding could still arise where and if training
becomes the most problematic, and if rainfall amounts approach some
of the 00Z deterministic QPF output, e.g., local rainfall amounts
in excess of five to six inches.

Rainfall chances should continue into Tues as a cdfrnt fm the Great
Plains slowly moves into the state thru the day. Covg of PoPs should
taper off fm NW to SE thru Tues evng as drier air and broad sfc high
pressure settles over the Cntrl US.

By Wed, the aforementioned sfc high pressure wl be shifting Ewrd
towards the Great Lakes and NErn US, w/ the FA residing on the SWrn
periphery of the sfc high. Under NErly sfc winds, settled wx condns
wl prevail thru the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Scattered rain continues to rotate generally SW/S around the west
side of the low centered over SRN/SERN AR late this afternoon.
Mainly some low CIGs were noted...which should persist or get
worse during this evening hrs. Have kept some mention of precip
this evening as well...but most activity should remain over ERN
sections. The MVFR or lower CIGs will continue overnight into Tue
morning...and some patchy fog/DZ may also be seen. Expect
improving conditions by late in the TAF period as NRLY winds bring
in some drier air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  82  59  77 /  70  40  10   0
Camden AR         66  84  64  79 /  20  30  10   0
Harrison AR       63  78  55  74 /  20  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    67  84  64  78 /  30  30  10   0
Little Rock   AR  69  82  64  77 /  60  30  10   0
Monticello AR     69  85  65  80 /  40  40  10   0
Mount Ida AR      65  86  62  79 /  20  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  65  81  56  76 /  30  20  10   0
Newport AR        70  81  61  77 /  80  50  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     69  83  64  78 /  40  40  10   0
Russellville AR   68  85  63  80 /  30  20  10   0
Searcy AR         68  83  61  77 /  80  40  10   0
Stuttgart AR      70  82  64  77 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...62