078
FXUS64 KLZK 022304 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
504 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- An approaching weather system will bring rain chances across
  western sections of Arkansas this afternoon and statewide
  tonight and Tuesday

- Some stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out over the west
  today and across the remainder of the state tonight into Tuesday
  night. The primary concern will be gusty winds

- Beneficial rain of an inch to an inch and a half will be
  possible with this weather system

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Local observations and satellite imagery from across the region
this morning indicates expansive low clouds and areas of fog that
are locally dense. Fog is not widespread enough and visibility is
not low enough to hoist any headlines at this time but the
situation will continue to be monitored through the remainder of
the night. Southeast winds between 6 and 10 mph are likely
keeping widespread dense fog from developing.

Forecast area remains under shortwave ridging with surface high
off the Mid Atlantic coast providing a moist SE surface flow.
Ridge will be moving off to the east today with a highly amplified
upper trough, projected by guidance, to be located in the central
plains by the end of the day and moving towards the Mississippi
Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stray shower or two can be be
excluded during the day today but the majority of the FA will be
dry.

Guidance develops convection over eastern Oklahoma by the end of
the day in an increasingly moist and unstable environment as the
trough approaches. This area of convection will move into western
Arkansas tonight and move across the majority of the FA Tuesday. A
few of these storms may may produce a few damaging wind gusts
especially during the afternoon hours when what instability there
is will be maximized.

Widespread, ongoing precipitation, cloud cover and less than
ideal dynamics will likely mitigate a widespread severe threat.
The associated surface boundary moves from eastern Oklahoma early
on Tuesday, into central Arkansas by the end of the day and
crosses the Mississippi River Tuesday evening. Upper support will
swing through primarily northern Arkansas keeping at least a
chance of showers Tuesday night into very early Wednesday.

Zonal flow returns for most of Wednesday before another upper
wave drops down for Thursday night and Friday but only minimal
chances of rain are expected with this feature. Rainfall amounts
of an inch to possibly an inch and a half are expected with
locally higher amounts near any stronger convection. Seasonably
cool air will overspread the FA in the wake of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Some MVFR conditions were noted this afternoon...and this may
continue into the overnight hrs. Some scattered SHRA may be noted
overnight into early Tue morning...as well as some patchy DZ. A
line of convection will move through the state during the day on
Tue...with widespread SHRA/scattered TSRA possible. Most of this
activity should pass east of the state near the end of this TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  74  50  72 /  30 100  50   0
Camden AR         64  75  46  73 /  20 100  10   0
Harrison AR       63  73  48  66 /  80 100  10   0
Hot Springs AR    64  73  47  72 /  80 100  10   0
Little Rock   AR  65  75  52  73 /  10 100  20   0
Monticello AR     66  78  51  73 /   0 100  60   0
Mount Ida AR      62  75  43  72 /  90 100   0   0
Mountain Home AR  63  72  49  66 /  40 100  20   0
Newport AR        64  77  52  71 /  10 100  60   0
Pine Bluff AR     64  77  48  73 /   0 100  40   0
Russellville AR   64  76  49  71 /  70 100  10   0
Searcy AR         63  76  49  72 /  20 100  40   0
Stuttgart AR      66  78  52  72 /   0  90  60   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56
AVIATION...62