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FXUS64 KLZK 172318
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Latest observational data indicate several different air masses
currently exist across the Arkansas. Quite dry conditions with
seasonal temperatures exists along and north of a line from
Fayetteville, to Salem.  Very warm and humid conditions exists along
and south of a line from De Queen to Crossett.  A hybrid of
conditions is in place between the two previously mentioned
boundaries.

The southern moist air mass is associated with very unstable
conditions, with >= 4000 j/kg MLCape values indicated. These
conditions extend westward to western north Texas.

Strong upper level energy will continue northeastward from the big
bend area of Texas this afternoon. The southern boundary will be a
focus for widely scattered (<20 % coverage) late this afternoon.
Increased coverage is expected to develop across southern Oklahoma
and north Texas as the upper level energy approaches. This activity
is then expected to grow upscale, with (linear) MCS development
likely. This system would then move east-southeast towards the
forecast area. Near term forecasts account for this scenario.
Forecasted values in the near term parameter space favor increased
chances for large hail and damaging wind gusts across southwest
sections of the forecast values late this afternoon and evening.

The next chance for widespread impact conditions will be late Monday
and Tuesday, as upper level energy approaches the mid south while
becoming negatively tilted. Later forecasts will better refine
magnitude and timing of severe weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Forecasts will reflect expected upscale growth of the activity
forming across Oklahoma and north Texas. Widely scattered (<= 20%
coverage) areas of MVFR visibility due to fog are expected
between 09z-14z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  83  69  86 /  50  60  60  30
Camden AR         68  87  70  89 /  50  30  20  10
Harrison AR       60  80  66  82 /  50  70  60  60
Hot Springs AR    66  87  68  87 /  40  40  30  30
Little Rock   AR  69  87  71  87 /  50  60  40  20
Monticello AR     70  89  71  90 /  50  30  20  10
Mount Ida AR      65  86  68  86 /  40  40  30  50
Mountain Home AR  61  80  66  82 /  60  60  70  50
Newport AR        67  84  71  86 /  50  60  60  20
Pine Bluff AR     68  89  70  88 /  40  40  40  10
Russellville AR   66  85  69  86 /  50  60  50  40
Searcy AR         67  85  69  86 /  50  60  50  20
Stuttgart AR      70  87  72  88 /  50  60  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55