667
FXUS64 KLZK 240501
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

-Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through
 much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal
 temperatures felt across Arkansas last week.

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across
 the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may
 produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early
 morning hours on Monday.

-Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to
 allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting
 POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the
state and moving into Mississippi.

SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY:

A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern
Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105
and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today
for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat
index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist
that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40
corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the
northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the
main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become
severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and
northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of
the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern
Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will
lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast
will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but
conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern
fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to
support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000
J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts.
The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

MONDAY through SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present
over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in
which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to
note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs
will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large
part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with
a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state
from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next
weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become
stationary across Arkansas).

Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than
the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few
days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud
cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many
location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time
of the year will continue overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR flight category is expected over the majority of the forecast
period from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning
across all TAF sites. A complex of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be moving across Arkansas from north to south
across the state. However, coverage is not anticipated to be
widespread, therefore TEMPO and PROB30 groups along with periods of
VCTS and VCSH are introduced across all sites. If a TAF site does
become directly impacted by a shower or thunderstorm, then VSBY may
drop to MVFR or IFR. Surface wind gusts in excess of 30 knots have
been introduced within the TEMPO and PROB30 groups.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  70  95  73 /  60  20  10  20
Camden AR         96  74  99  75 /  40  20  10  10
Harrison AR       85  69  92  71 /  80  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    93  74 100  75 /  40  20  10  10
Little Rock   AR  90  74 100  77 /  80  20  10  10
Monticello AR     93  75  97  77 /  80  30  30  10
Mount Ida AR      94  72 101  73 /  40  20  10  10
Mountain Home AR  84  68  92  70 /  60  10  10  10
Newport AR        86  70  93  73 /  30  20  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     90  72  97  74 /  80  20  20  10
Russellville AR   91  72 100  74 /  70  20  10  10
Searcy AR         88  70  96  73 /  80  20  20  20
Stuttgart AR      90  73  97  75 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74