548
FXUS64 KMAF 231016
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Very hot temperatures are expected today onward, with
  increasing coverage of triple digit highs. Persistent heat will
  present an increasing risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Rain chances remain low to none through at least the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The heat is back! WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge
centered over north central Texas, and spanning the southern CONUS
from coast to coast. KMAF hit 101 F yesterday...the first triple-
digit day since Independence Day. For those who prefer warmer
weather, this looks to generally persist through the extended.

Today, the ridge is forecast to shift west a little, increasing
thicknesses and adding a degree or so to yesterday`s high, finishing
the afternoon  ~ 7-9 F above climatology.  Unfortunately for our
customers in the Western Low Rolling Hills, privy to highest
dewpoints in the Colorado River Valley, apparent temperatures will
be pushing 105 F, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for them. An
isolated afternoon storm or two is possible, mainly eastern Permian
Basin, in better dewpoints.

Tonight, a 30 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine with a
few high clouds to retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight
minimums unseasonably warm, around 8-10 F above normal.

Friday, the upper ridge develops even farther west, w/the LREF
centering it SSW of the Four Corners.  The will shift the heat west,
and Heat Advisories may be needed for the Pecos River Valley in
Southeast New Mexico.  Areas east may see highs a degree or so
cooler than today, but still warm.  Isolated afternoon convection
will be possible, mainly over the Chinatis.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Hot and dry weather below an upper ridge becomes the norm within the
Long Term forecast. The ridge`s center will hover between the Four
Corners region and central Great Plains this weekend and into the
middle of next week. The ridge axis shifts west of our area
Saturday, allowing for highs a touch cooler compared to Friday.
Expect temperatures mainly in the 90s, with triple digits near and
along the river valleys and the northeastern Permian Basin. Sunday
onward, upper riding gradually strengthens aloft. Increasing
heights bring widespread highs beyond the century mark across our
region through at least the middle of next week. The hottest
conditions will tend to lie along the river valleys. Highs will
top out near 105 degrees most afternoons near the Pecos River,
while areas along the Rio Grande are expected to climb between
105-110 degrees (up to 115 degrees in some portions of the Big
Bend). Given multiple days of persistently hot conditions, Heat
products may be issued as needed. Temperatures in the higher
terrain and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos will reach the upper
90s most afternoons. Overnight lows mainly fall to the 70s each
night. Isolated showers/storms will be possible over SE NM and the
higher terrain in west Texas Friday evening and Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry for everyone else.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours in light return flow.
Convective chances are minimal, but a widespread cu field is
expected early afternoon, w/bases ~ 8-9 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  77 102  76 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                102  77 104  77 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                  103  77  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  77 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           94  71  95  71 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                   102  75 103  73 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                    94  66  96  64 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport    102  78 101  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                  102  78 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  78 103  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for Borden-Howard-Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99