740
FXUS64 KMAF 260630
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across west Texas
  and southeast New Mexico today. Chances for most locations range
  from 30-60%. Rain chances decrease sharply by early Tuesday
  morning.

- Drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before additional
  chances of rain return by late this week.

- Near-to-below normal temperatures are expected today. Warmer
  conditions are expected Tuesday through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

An upper-level trough that is currently centered just east of the
Four Corners region ejects to the northeast today. As this occurs,
shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft will move across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. For the past couple of days,
the best lift, and therefore most of the rain, has been mainly
across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas, with the eastern
half of the area seeing little rain outside of some isolated light
showers yesterday afternoon. However, today`s setup favors increased
chances of measurable rainfall across most of the area. Most of
these additional showers and thunderstorms (besides any remnant
convection that may be ongoing from earlier this morning) will start
to develop later in the morning, and will continue to develop across
the area through the afternoon and evening. Chances range from 30-
60% for most locations, up to 70% for parts of the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans-Pecos. Once again, somewhat modest CAPE and reduced
shear will help limit the severe threat (though a couple of strong
to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out). Atmospheric
moisture remains unseasonably high (within the 90-99th percentile),
so some storms may also produce heavy rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding.

Shower and storm chances plummet by early Tuesday morning as the
trough moves beyond our area. Most locations stay dry tomorrow,
though models hint that some isolated convection may develop in/near
the Davis Mountains (10-20% chances). Behind the trough,
temperatures start to warm again. Whereas highs today top out in the
upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s, highs Tuesday climb back into the mid-
to-upper 70s and low 80s. Lows fall into the 50s for most locations
Tuesday morning. Warmer and drier conditions hang around through the
beginning of the Long Term before yet another system heads our way
by the end of the week.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Drier and warmer conditions continue on Wednesday as heights rise
slightly behind the shortwave that is expected to pass overhead
today. However, the broad upper-level trough across the western
CONUS deepens, putting our area under southwest flow aloft.
Several shortwaves moving within the flow yield medium to high (40-
80%) chances of showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning
through Thursday night. Forecast soundings per ensemble guidance
continues to depict PWAT values in the 1.0"-1.5" range (> 90th
percentile), particularly across the eastern half of our CWA. This
suggests a favorable environment for potentially heavy rainfall that
could lead to localized flash flooding. However, details remain
unclear at this time given uncertainty in where the best lift and
moisture quality will setup.

By Friday, southwesterly flow aloft remains the dominant
feature through at least Saturday, but the bulk of shortwave
disturbances begin to move east. This maintains a low (10-40%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area during
this timeframe. The assistance of surface troughing and upslope flow
yield locally higher probabilities (40-60%) over parts of the higher
terrain Friday night. Long-range guidance shows the upper-level
pattern changing to quasi-zonal flow aloft, but a low (10-20%)
chance of rain remains in the forecast across our northern zones for
now.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

MVFR CIGs persist at HOB and CNM, while VFR conditions prevail
elsewhere. Similar to previous mornings, MVFR conditions are
expected to develop over most sites (save perhaps PEQ again) over
the next several hours. Brief reductions to IFR will be possible,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs for any terminals.
VFR conditions return to most sites later this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered storms remain possible over the next few hours at CNM
and HOB, so have included a PROB30 for -TSRA there. More
showers/thunderstorms are expected later today. Right now, the
highest confidence later this morning/this afternoon is at MAF, FST,
and PEQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  59  79  60 /  50  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 72  55  77  55 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                   74  59  79  60 /  40  30   0   0
Fort Stockton            75  57  82  59 /  40  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  52  69  54 /  50  10  10   0
Hobbs                    68  54  75  55 /  30  30   0   0
Marfa                    71  51  74  51 /  40  40  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     70  58  77  60 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                   70  58  77  60 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                     73  57  80  59 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13