919
FXUS64 KMAF 141127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for
  areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the
  areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The lack of heating has caused convection to dissipate this
morning. Yesterday was only round one of several days of expected
showers and storms developing in the afternoon and early evening,
then diminishing as the atmosphere stabilizes overnight. The main
threat area for heavy rainfall in the short term will be the lower
Trans Pecos and Big Bend where orographic lift and closer
proximity to an upper level low will provide the best lift.
Precipitable water values will also be highest south of I-10 so
not only will the rain coverage be greatest in this area, they
will be proficient rainfall producers and create a persistent
threat for flash flooding. Therefore the Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect. The moisture, cloud cover, and showers keep
temperatures well below normal in the short term with highs
holding in the 80s for most locations...even along the Rio Grande
which is quite nice for July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

An upper low slowly moving west, pushed along by high pressure
well north of the area provides significant rain chances from
the Permian Basin to the Big Bend Thursday and Friday. Drier air
gets pulled into southeastern New Mexico on the western side of
the low so unfortunately, rain chances will be much lower in the
northwestern CWA. The low moves into northern Mexico Saturday,
finally pulling moisture into the western counties and giving
southeastern New Mexico it`s best chances for rain. Stability
increases Sunday as the low exits the area and rain chances return
to normal, highlighting the higher elevations west of the Pecos
River with isolated to scattered showers and storms. The drier
conditions also allow temperatures to begin a warming trend that
continues into next week as highs get back to near normal. Some
deterministic models indicate the potential for more disturbed
weather next week but the ensembles remain dry.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Radar this morning shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
stretching along the lower Trans Pecos. FST could see SHRA/TS
12-18Z, and possibly beyond, before activity diminishes. TS could
affect any of the other TAF sites though confidence is too low to
mention except at MAF which has a PROB30. Conditions will be
mostly VFR everywhere though brief MVFR CIG/VIS is possible,
especially in convection.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  66  83  65 /  30  20  60  50
Carlsbad                 91  67  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   84  67  84  66 /  80  40  70  70
Fort Stockton            84  64  82  64 /  60  20  70  30
Guadalupe Pass           81  63  80  62 /  20   0  10  10
Hobbs                    89  64  85  63 /  10  10  30  10
Marfa                    78  55  79  55 /  80  10  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     87  66  82  65 /  30  10  60  50
Odessa                   87  66  83  65 /  30  10  60  50
Wink                     88  66  85  65 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10