157
FXUS64 KMAF 081736
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- A summer-like pattern with hot temperatures and drier
  conditions will prevail through the week.

- Heat related concerns will increase over the Pecos River Valley
  and along the Rio Grande where high temperatures will range
  between 100-108 degrees through much of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Upper level ridging continues to build over our area today, keeping
hot and mostly dry conditions in the forecast. Highs this afternoon
will be similar to Sunday`s, if not a touch warmer, ranging in the
upper 90s to triple digits. Temperatures beyond the century mark
look to overspread most of southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans
Pecos, and the Rio Grande river valley. Those near and along the
Pecos River valley are expected to top out in the 100-105 degree
range, while some areas along the Rio Grande soar into the 105-112
degree range this afternoon. Although the latter temperatures fall
just short of Heat Advisory criteria, it`s best to stay hydrated and
limit outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day. Despite
ridging aloft, the combination of daytime heating and moist, upslope
flow from the south/southeast due to surface troughing brings the
possibility of isolated shower/storm development. Low (<15%) rain
chances are forecast over the higher terrain in west Texas,
primarily in and near the Davis Mountains this afternoon. The rest
of the region is expected to remain dry. Tonight, temperatures fall
into the mid 60s to mid 70s. The upper ridge shifts eastward
Tuesday, allowing temperatures to cool off a few degrees. Tuesday`s
highs will reach into the low 90s to 100s, but triple digit heat
looks to be more confined to the Rio Grande and Pecos River
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous package.
A weak upper ridge of high pressure settles over much of the region,
while quasi-zonal flow aloft takes shape north of the area due to an
upper-level system moving across the northern Plains. At the
surface, troughing will be positioned over the Rockies. Shortwave
impulses from the weak ridge of high pressure along with surface
troughing from the west yields low to medium (20-50%) chance of
storms over the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Guidance has Precipitable Water (PWAT) values
ranging from the 75th to slightly above 90th percentile Wednesday
through Saturday, per SPC Sounding Climatology, across the
region. This poses a risk of heavy rainfall for storms that
develop. A similar weather pattern is in store for the rest of the
week heading into the weekend with daily isolated to scattered
showers/storms (expanding in coverage Thursday and Friday) where
many locations will remain dry. Other than that, summer-like heat
continues over portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to range
from the mid 90s to lower triple digits. The warmest temperatures
will be in spots along the Pecos River and Rio Grande where
temperatures are expected to range between 100-110 degrees. As a
result, heat related concerns will increase over these areas.
Slightly cooler temperatures (mainly mid to upper 90s for most
with 100-108 degrees along Pecos River and Rio Grande locations)
are forecast Friday into the weekend as the ridge of high pressure
breaks down.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the region this afternoon into
this evening. Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop over the western
Permian Basin into the Trans Pecos, but probabilities of
occurrence are currently too low to mention at any TAF site. MVFR
ceilings may develop from far southeast NM into the Permian Basin
and Trans Pecos by early Tuesday morning. Our confidence was high
enough to include mention of MVFR ceilings at KMAF starting around
12Z. Breezy S/SE winds will persist into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                104  71 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   98  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  70  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   100  67  94  68 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    95  59  93  62 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     98  71  91  71 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  71  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                    103  71  97  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21