306
FXUS64 KMAF 280336
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Isolated showers/storms are in store today and tomorrow
  afternoon across portions of far west Texas, southeast New
  Mexico, and higher terrain.

- Patchy fog may occur Wednesday morning across the Trans Pecos,
  southeast New Mexico, and Permian Basin. When visibilities get
  low, take it slow!

- Numerous showers/storms are in store Thursday through Friday
  evening across the eastern half of the region. Multiple rounds
  of heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, especially across
  low-lying and urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Satellite and radar imagery as of 12 PM CDT has low clouds and fog
dissipating across portions of southeast New Mexico, northern
Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos. Southwesterly flow aloft and upslope
flow will bring additional isolated convection across portions of
far West Texas, southeast New Mexico, and Davis Mountains later in
the afternoon through early evening. Heights begin to increase today
lasting through tomorrow, promoting drier and warmer conditions
across the region. Highs each day are forecast to be in the mid 70s
to mid 80s with Wednesday being the warmer day. Tonight into
tomorrow morning, surface southerly to southeasterly winds advect
moisture from the Gulf allowing patchy fog to develop during the
early morning hours. Areas across the Permian Basin, southeast New
Mexico, and near Pecos River Valley may have isolated spots of dense
fog, reducing visibilities to less than 1/4 mile. When visibilities
become low, take it slow tomorrow morning! Lows are expected to
range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Isolated to scattered storms are
in store across similar areas (far W TX and higher terrain) tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy
rainfall will be the main threats with the strongest storms. A more
active and wetter pattern takes shape heading into Thursday. See the
long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An upper-level shortwave trough along with abundant moisture from
the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance will bring rainfall for much of
the region Thursday through Friday evening. Scattered to numerous
showers/storms will begin across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos
Thursday morning before spreading northward by the afternoon and
evening. Precipitable Water values (PWATs) exceed the 90th
climatological percentile for areas across the Lower Trans Pecos,
Big Bend, and Permian Basin. These values indicate the threat of
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Guidance looks to have a
brief window of a storm or two becoming strong Thursday afternoon,
where gusty winds (up to 55 mph) may occur. Overall, the severe
weather threat remains very low and flash flooding due to multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Medium to long-
range guidance has the heavy rainfall threat peaking Thursday night
through early Friday afternoon as rain coverage becomes numerous to
widespread during this timeframe. Urban and low-lying areas will be
the most susceptible spots for flash flooding. Uncertainty still
remains where exactly the heaviest rainfall will happen and precise
rainfall amounts. Ensembles show medium probabilities (40-70%) of
two inches or more of rainfall across the Lower Trans Pecos
extending into the northern Permian Basin. Isolated amounts up to 6"
may occur per longer range high resolution models. By Friday
evening, the upper-level shortwave trough lifts northeast. As a
result, lingering light showers hang around Friday night across the
far eastern half of the area, though little impacts (flash flooding)
are expected by that time.

Subtle upper ridging builds back into the region Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday bringing drier and warmer weather. Highs are
expected to range from the 70s to low 80s both days. Another upper-
level system approaches from the west, supplying additional low (10-
40%) rain chances late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This
system will eventually send a cold front by early next week.
Guidance does have an upper-low deepening near the region which will
be favorable for strong winds. This type of setup can be favorable
for potential gap winds at Guadalupe Pass, along with blowing dust
concerns mainly across open fields and construction sites. Much
cooler temperatures are forecast by early to mid next week as
surface high pressure builds in from the Rockies ushering in colder
air to the region.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Latest CAMs and NBM suggest IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will be possible
again for a few hours Wednesday morning, but only at KMAF/KHOB.
Otherwise, a sparse cu field will be possible Wednesday
afternoon, w/a few high clouds throughout the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  81  61  77 /   0   0  10  70
Carlsbad                 56  82  58  76 /   0  20  10  30
Dryden                   61  80  62  73 /   0   0  30  90
Fort Stockton            59  83  61  76 /   0  10  20  70
Guadalupe Pass           55  73  56  68 /  10  20  20  40
Hobbs                    56  78  57  74 /   0   0   0  40
Marfa                    51  77  53  69 /   0  20  20  90
Midland Intl Airport     60  79  61  75 /   0   0  10  70
Odessa                   60  79  61  75 /   0   0   0  70
Wink                     59  82  60  76 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99