Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 200544
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will continue
overnight and early Friday morning across the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Moisture increasing will result in
VFR ceilings developing Friday morning with increasing southeast
winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusty by mid Friday morning and
continuing Friday afternoon and early evening. A strong upper
level system and dryline will combine to bring a chance of MVFR
conditions in tsra and blowing dust to most terminals (except
KCNM) late Friday afternoon and evening.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Gusty SE winds will continue at all terminals through the
forecast period, except CNM, where winds will shift to the SW by
18Z-19Z as a dryline develops. Moisture increasing from west to
east will yield increasing clouds, with the best chance for MVFR
ceilings late tonight/early Friday at CNM. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. While thunderstorms are
possible tonight, potentially affecting CNM/PEQ/FST, have not
included mention at this time due to uncertainty in timing and
location. Thunderstorm chances shift east Friday, with the best
chance at HOB/INK/MAF/FST during the afternoon/evening. Will defer
to later issuances for potential TSRA inclusion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Low-level mstr is still favored to move nwwd along and w of the Rio
Grande tonight. 7h-5h LRs have already steepened and will remain so,
but any mstr return way out w will be shallow and isold-sct
convection will be high based. Strong low-level jet overnight will
keep se winds up across most areas and se winds will remain
unusually strong across PB/Lower Trans Pecos Fri, advisory level,
as the decaying low-level jet core resides across the central PB.
High winds are likely in the GDP Mtns and it will be windy across
SE NM too, w of the dryline. Low-level mstr is slow to return to
PB and dryline will move to near Hobbs to the Big Bend by 00Z Sat.
Tstms potential has decreased across the Trans Pecos Fri PM, a few
storms are still possible along the dryline and north of I-20 east
of the dryline. We will opt to side toward lower MOS PoPs into Fri
evening. METMOS PoPS for MAF has trended down last 3 runs from
40%-27%-15%. GFS which has trended PoPs up? There is marginal risk
of severe storms, still bulk shear looks kinda high for puny CAPE
environment that is forecast. Dryline will move east across PB
mostly before 18Z Sat then followed by a cold front afternoon/evening
with mid-level trough axis east. Cool and breezy Sun AM with
below normal temps into Sun PM. Warmer Mon with FROPA expected on
Tue. Models optimistically develop and hold onto post-frontal
precip Tue night-Wed in weakish nw flow aloft, we`ll see? Warmer
temps are favored Thur underneath nw flow aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
Currently have elevated fire weather condition across most areas
this afternoon with dry air and gusty southeast winds in place.
Could see some thunderstorms move east across portions of SE NM and
south through the Big Bend this evening. With dewpoints still
expected to be in the 30s around this time, significant rainfall is
not expected. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong
and erratic winds and dry lightning is definitely a concern for new
fire starts across these areas. Low level moisture recovers slightly
tonight as SE winds remain elevated so expect fair overnight
recovery areawide.

Friday, a sharp dryline quickly develops across far western zones by
mid day and pushes east to near a Hobbs to Pecos to Presidio line
through the afternoon hours. To the west of this line, expect
critical to extreme fire weather conditions (RFTIs generally 6-8)
with minimum relative humidity below 15% (single digits in SE NM)
and west winds 20-25mph sustained (40-45mph in the Guadalupe
mountains). In addition, fuels are extremely dry and ERCs are in the
90-97th percentile so the significant fire potential will be
moderate to high across these areas. As a result, a Red Flag
Warning has been issued for SE NM and south through the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau for Friday mid-morning through late
evening. Dry air will remain in place across many areas Saturday
with some elevated NW winds so perhaps elevated fire weather can
be expected Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  54  77  44 /  20  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       80  48  78  45 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  92  49 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  53  80  46 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  48  73  48 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  46  70  41 /  10  20   0   0
Marfa                          83  42  74  39 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  54  78  44 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                         74  53  77  44 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                           80  49  81  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Andrews-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Loving-Midland-Pecos-
     Reagan-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/12


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