345
FXUS64 KMAF 120452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1052 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Another upper-level storm system will bring medium to high
  chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms for most areas
  late Friday into Saturday.

- A few storms may become strong, especially across the Permian
  Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats for the strongest
  storms will be quarter size hail and heavy rainfall. The flash
  flood threat remains very low.

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The mid to upper air pattern will settle into alternating weak
ridging and stronger ridging in between troughing associated with
storm systems, but overall weak ridging and dampened troughing
returning in the wake of these storm systems. This keeps
temperatures near to above average for mid-February. IR satellite
imagery, IFR/LIFR probability grids and observations earlier this
morning depicted more mist/fog southwest of the Pecos River than NBM
aviation grids were indicating in previous runs, especially over the
Guadalupes, Culberson County, and Marfa Plateau into the Stockton
Plateau. This mist/fog is now in the process of dissipating early
this afternoon as clouds continue to drift from west to east in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft. However, both coarse-res and high-res model
forecast soundings continue to depict residual low-level moisture
characterized by dew point depressions at or below 10F to 15F and
capped by drier air above that, keeping a mix of low-level and mid-
level clouds around through most of the day even after the mist/fog
completely dissipates. Despite winds veering from northeast/east to
south/southeast as mid to upper ridging builds and the cold front
that cleared the area last night redevelops northeast as a warm
front this afternoon/evening, these low to mid level clouds will
limit diurnal heating and combined with remnant CAA, keep highs near
average and in the 60s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F Guadalupes and
Delawares into Davis Mountains, and 70s F Rio Grande basin into
Terrell County. NBM highs have trended down from previous runs north
of Rio Grande basin as low clouds and mist/fog have been more
persistent into the late morning than models indicated and lows this
morning were cooler than originally forecast. In fact, where more
widespread broken cloud cover lingers over Lea County and northern
Permian Basin, highs may not rise above 60 F. As winds veer to
south/southeast this evening and advect warmer air into the area,
lows tonight have still trended down in the NBM as moisture return
is now lagging compared to earlier runs. This means lows falling
into the 40s F, 30s F foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea
County into northwest Permian Basin, and 50s F only for the Rio
Grande basin. Considering forecast lows were warmer than observed
lows this morning and the repeated pattern lately of lows only
reached by sunrise rather than in the early morning before sunrise,
this is not unexpected. Despite dew point depressions falling within
5F, increased winds just above the surface from a southerly low-
level jet overnight might provide enough mechanical mixing to
inhibit widespread mist/fog, apart from low lying regions along and
near the Pecos River with lighter winds.

With building ridging and winds in the mid to lower troposphere
shifting to south/southwest as a storm system off the Pacific SW
develops into Baja CA and northern MX plateau, increased large scale
sinking motion and adiabatic downslope compressional warming is
still forecast to allow highs to rise into the mid to upper 70s F,
upper 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations, and 80s F for portions
of the Pecos River valley and along Rio Grande. Despite winds
becoming more south/southwest which would normally bring in drier
air from the Chihuahuan Desert, moisture trajectories off the
Pacific SW and Baja CA through at least the lower to mid
tropospheric depth will advect more humid air into the area, with
dew point temperatures rising from the upper 30s to lower 40s F to
mid 40s to mid 50s F. This increased moisture will allow mid to
high level clouds to persist even as dew point depressions remain
greater than 20F with dry air near the surface and in the lower
troposphere. Persistent mid to upper clouds, increased dew point
temperatures/boundary layer moisture, and south/southwest
downsloping winds continuing into Thursday evening allow lows to
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s F Thursday night. While the
weather remains dry with no chance of rain today and tomorrow, the
increased moisture, deep layer south/southwest winds, and
approach of the storm system from Baja CA/northern MX plateau will
be a prelude to another rain event Friday-Saturday. With PWATs
again approaching record levels and elevated instability, we may
again see a chance of thunder with this precipitation, but with
convection more impactful than just embedded thundershowers this
time. More on the forecast ahead in the long term discussion
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

An upper-level storm system approaches from the west on Friday
bringing another shot of rain and thunderstorms across the region.
The storm system will provide deep layer moisture and increased
southwesterly flow aloft hinting at the potential for a few strong
storms and locally heavy rainfall to occur. Rain chances begin to
ramp up Friday morning into the early afternoon hours across
southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as the storm system digs
across Baja California. Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes
numerous by late afternoon into the evening with the greatest
chances (60-90%) prevalent over far southeast New Mexico, Permian
Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings have noted deep
layer shear (> 70 kts), weak instability (generally less than 1000
J/kg), and high PWATs (> 0.8 IN). Guidance continues to show more
available potential instability in the elevated layers, pointing at
a hail threat for the strongest storms. Hi-res and long term
guidance have been showing PWATs near and above the daily
climatological maximum. These high PWATs indicate the threat of
heavy rainfall. As of now, the flash flood threat remains very low
given fast storm motions. Models have been trending upward on
surface and most unstable CAPE; this will be something to monitor
heading into Friday. If this trend continues upward, especially with
surface instability, a wind threat for the strongest storms may come
into play as another hazard. The peak timeframe for a few strong
storms will be late afternoon through evening across the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

Friday night into Saturday morning, the storm system advances
further east into southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This will
push much of the shower and thunderstorm activity east of the
forecast area. A few rain showers may linger across the region,
especially through the morning hours. Warmer than normal lows in the
40s to mid 50s are expected due to overcast skies prevalent
throughout the night and morning. A Pacific front is forecast to
move through the region Saturday morning. Breezy westerly to
northwesterly winds are expected behind the front through early
Saturday evening. Blowing dust concerns remain very low due to
saturated soils from the expected rain on Friday. Highs are forecast
to be in the 60s and low 70s for most locations. By Sunday, upper-
level ridging begins to build in from the west as the upper-level
storm system pushes into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern
will promote dry conditions and spring-like temperatures in the
upper 60s and 70s heading into next week.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow,
with a few high clouds. Clouds will increase substantially after
dark Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  76  53  74 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                 42  74  50  68 /   0   0   0  60
Dryden                   49  77  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            48  78  55  78 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           44  66  53  62 /   0   0   0  60
Hobbs                    42  74  48  69 /   0   0   0  60
Marfa                    38  73  44  72 /   0   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     45  76  54  74 /   0   0   0  40
Odessa                   46  74  54  73 /   0   0   0  40
Wink                     43  75  50  73 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99