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000
FXUS64 KMAF 071110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

A broken line of showers and storms that developed well to our west
Tuesday has almost completely dissipated. Clouds will remain over
much of the Permian Basin before clearing later this morning.
Temperatures are mostly in the 60s this morning so enjoy before the
big heat arrives this weekend.

A busy afternoon of showers and storms looks likely as a well-timed
shortwave arrives. As clouds clear later this morning the June
sunshine will help temperatures rise well into the 80s and low 90s
across the area. Easterly surface flow continues to keep moisture in
place and will eventually lead to an unstable environment.
Convective initiation is expected across the higher terrain just
after Noon with storms spreading east with time. Another area of
development could be along an old outflow boundary from last nights
storms, but uncertainty exists where it will end up. Slightly
greater flow aloft will lead to modest deep layer shear across the
area. This will result in strong to severe storms with the main
threats being damaging winds and large hail. While storms will be
mostly multicell, a supercell is not out of the question across
the always favored Stockton Plateau. Storms will likely organize
into clusters as they spread east, increasing the risk for
damaging winds. Last but not least is the heavy rain threat. Some
locations still have a wet ground after heavy rain last week so
flash flooding will be a concern.

Things really quiet down Thursday as westerly flow strengthens and
leads to mostly downslope flow. Much drier air will allow highs to
climb well into the 90s with the chance of rain near zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Longwave pattern will shift with increasing heights across the
southern plains along with south to southwest flow prevailing for
much of the extended. Convective risks will be relegated to the high
terrain of the Davis and Glass Mtns on a few afternoons and a
possible complex for early next week over the northern tier.
Otherwise, tomorrow will be the end of the consistent
precipitation potential we`ve had the pleasure of experiencing
recently.

The bigger story will turn to the crescendo of temperatures
expected beginning Friday, onward. Highs in the 90s will become
common with 100+ increasingly likely for a large chunk of the area
late-weekend through potentially all of next week. Some minor
deviation in temperatures are represented on the global models
for the period, but the premise still stands that a flip in the
pattern will bring above to well-above normal temperatures to the
region beginning late this week through possibly all of next week.
Lows will also be on the rise with lows in the 60s and even 70s
increasingly likely everywhere. Now is a great time to prepare for
the incoming heat as the summer doldrums seems to be on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

VFR will prevail through the period with light southeast winds.
Showers and storms are expected to develop later this afternoon
west of the terminals. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain are likely
and could reduce visibilities as storms move through. Due to
uncertainty of timing have not included in the current TAFs just
yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  63  91  65 /  10  40   0   0
Carlsbad                 90  59  95  61 /  40  30   0   0
Dryden                   92  65  95  70 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  62  95  68 /  40  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           83  60  87  64 /  40  20   0   0
Hobbs                    87  58  92  61 /  30  50   0   0
Marfa                    85  53  89  55 /  60  50   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  62  94  66 /  10  40   0   0
Odessa                   89  63  95  67 /  20  40   0   0
Wink                     92  61  97  65 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...29