Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front moving through the area... already past CNM and HOB...
will be arriving at MAF and INK in the next hour or two. Gusty
north wind with fropa and while blowing dust possible have not
observed it yet. Wind will veer around toward the east late in the
day as speeds decrease.  VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Clear skies will continue for most of the overnight ahead of our
next cold front making headway through the Panhandle. Winds will
shift out of the N/NE for the morning across much of the forecast
area, leaving cooler and unfortunately slightly dustier air in its
wake. Winds will be sustained 20-30 mph with locally higher gusts
for a few hours post-front, but those conditions will not stick
around much longer with slow waining wind speeds through the
afternoon. High temps will struggle to reach beyond the mid-50s for
areas along and north of I-20 as cold air slowly bleeds in through
the afternoon time frame. Winds out in the Guadalupe`s will hum
behind the front leaving a period of high wind potential on gap flow
through GDP. Have maintained the previous High Wind Watch for late-
tonight into Wednesday AM as guidance finagles the timing of the
strongest winds. Elsewhere in the region, lighter flow will occur
over the Permian Basin and portions of SE NM where clear skies and
high pressure will help temps plummet overnight into Wednesday AM.
Considering the time of the season with plants and harvests over the
northern Basin, have issued a Freeze Watch for low temps dipping to
near and below 32F across our counties north of I-20, as well as the
northern half of Lea in NM.

Longwave pattern keeps the trough out west with cooler temps lasting
through Wednesday, but we begin to rebound on Thursday as shortwave
trough finally exits the Four Corners and cuts through Friday PM.
Unfortunately, the positioning of the dryline is well to the east,
so the proximity of any showers/storms will likely lie across
SJT`s area out to the Metroplex. Perhaps a bit slower movement of
the trough axis could buy some room for the far eastern portions of
the forecast area, but that`s likely all we`ll be able to muster. A
second weak front will drop south Friday evening with little to no
fan fare. Weak ridging will transpire for the end of the weekend
into early next week leading to moderating temps back in the 80s and
even some 90s possible up to the I-20 corridor ahead of the next
trough. No rain however, so we will stay looking for relief of the
drought.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  34  56  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       61  34  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         79  43  64  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  66  38  64  48 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  34  59  43 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  31  57  40 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          71  32  70  37 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           56  35  57  45 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         55  35  58  45 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           59  36  63  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Central Lea County-Northern Lea County.

TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Gaines-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$


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