Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 152004
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...As of 1:45 PM CST Saturday...Ho-hum forecast with
the less than wonderful split flow regime over the area.

Satellite imagery shows...just look up...mainly clear skies across
the CWA. Temps are pleasant...it is 63 at MAF (normal is 58).

Model initialization shows a pretty unstable 5 or 6 wave pattern
across the Northern Hemisphere. However...the models are in pretty
good agreement over the next week.

The main jet is over the northern tier of states. The jet splits
once it moves on to the west coast. A weak southern branch is
noted along the Baja coast into TX. Ridging will keep the CWA dry
thru Sunday with a tad above normal temps. A weakening southern
stream shortwave will move over the CWA Sunday night. There could
be enough dynamics for a few showers over the Guadalupe and Davis
Mtns Sunday night...but not significant enough to tell your
neighbor about. After a dry Monday with near normal temps a weak
baggy trough tracks southeast out of the Rockies and moves over
the CWA on Tuesday. This weak trough will have enough
dynamics/moisture for a slight chance of showers across the area
on Tuesday into Tuesday night...but nothing very significant at
this time. Tuesday temps will be a few degrees above normal.

From Wednesday into next weekend the flow will consolidate as the
pattern becomes highly amplified across the US. Ridging will move
onto the West Coast as a deep trough moves from the Central US on
Wednesday. The ridge in the west will flatten as a series of
shortwaves moves across the northern tier of states into the deep
trough in the east which will lift northeast into the Atlantic. So
what does this mean for our area? Dry weather from Wednesday thru
next Saturday with temps a bit above normal.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  61  37  60 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       35  57  37  59 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         35  62  40  64 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  37  61  40  62 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  54  38  54 /   0   0  30  10
Hobbs                          32  60  34  59 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          29  59  34  61 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           36  63  38  62 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         35  62  38  62 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           33  61  36  62 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/33



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