Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 281135
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will shift to the S/SW and become gusty this morning, with gusts
to around 25-30kt expected thereafter. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, mainly at FST/MAF, though low probability
precludes inclusion at this time. Storms that develop would
diminish after sunset, with elevated/gusty winds continuing
through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Memorial Day Weekend will certainly feel like summer, with today
looking to be the hottest day of the forecast. The ridge that moved
over the region yesterday will continue its eastward progression,
with a trough over the Pacific Northwest resulting in a transition
to southwesterly flow aloft over Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas. An 850mb thermal ridge will develop across the area, and
coincident with southwesterly downslope flow, temperatures today
will warm to around 15 to even near 20 degrees above normal for late
May, with widespread high temperatures in the lower 100s for most.
Highs in the mountains this afternoon will reach the upper 90s, and
the hottest temperatures up to around 113 degrees are expected
through portions of the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. Given the
hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon for
most of the region, thus those with outdoor plans today will need
to plan accordingly, as heat-related illnesses will be a concern.
In addition to the heat, isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon in the vicinity of the dryline across
portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and possibly
down into the Big Bend. Model soundings indicate that storms that
develop would be very high-based, and mainly a downburst wind and
lightning threat. Some storms may become strong, especially over
the northeastern Permian Basin, with damaging winds and potential
blowing dust the main concerns. Storms that develop today will
likely weaken quickly after sunset this evening as the boundary
layer stabilizes.

Above normal temperatures will continue tonight, with lows in the
mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, ahead of another very hot day on
Sunday. While unseasonably hot conditions will persist, highs Sunday
look to be slightly cooler than today as heights fall slightly ahead
of a deepening trough over the western CONUS. Highs Sunday will top
out in the upper 90s and lower 100s for most, and while slightly
cooler, Heat Advisory conditions may remain possible for portions of
the area Sunday afternoon. The unseasonably hot, dry, and breezy
conditions as well as the continued prevalence of cured fuels will
maintain fire weather concerns through the weekend, with critical
fire weather conditions expected for portions of the area today, and
critical to locally extreme conditions on Sunday. More on the Fire
Weather threat can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Hot conditions and extreme fire danger are likely to continue Monday
before we see a pattern change Tuesday and beyond. Strong
southwesterly, downslope flow will allow the dryline to mix well
east again Monday afternoon with most locations near or above the
century mark again. A trough digs to our west Tuesday with height
falls keeping the dryline across our western CWA. Increasing low
level moisture will lower high temperatures slightly, but it still
looks hot. An isolated storm or two are possible Tuesday
afternoon, but don`t look for much. The upper trough lifts into
the Plains midweek sending a cold front south into the Southern
Plains. Models differ on how they handle the front, but show a
general cooling trend late in the week. With the boundary around
the area, expect some showers and storms, but it remains to be
seen how many. Ridging builds in by the weekend allowing hot, dry
conditions to return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

The heat has returned and so have fire weather concerns just in
time for the holiday weekend. ERC values continue to creep up from
the cooler, more moist conditions we saw a few days ago. Much of
the area is forecast to reach >97th percentile this weekend. Stronger
flow aloft today will lead to gusty southwest winds for SE NM and
adjacent locations. Near record high temperatures and single
digit RH`s combined with the winds will lead to RFTI`s 5-7 by
afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions and cured fuels
continue to give confidence in the current Red Flag Warning. Have
expanded the warning east into the western Permian Basin where
stronger winds will spread. Another concern for this afternoon is
any thunderstorms that develop along the dryline. This is expected
to occur across the Permian Basin south into the Big Bend.
Lightning and gusty, erratic winds are possible and could cause
new starts and containment issues. Even locations that saw rain
this past week will likely not see green- up for a while. Winds
look even stronger and more widespread Sunday so have expanded the
Fire Weather Watch. Could see locally extreme fire weather
conditions across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and adjacent
plains where winds could gust 40-50 mph. The fire weather threat
will continue into Monday before a front brings moisture and a
chance for rain midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              106  74 104  72 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                105  67  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  104  72 106  71 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton           104  71 104  67 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           96  65  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   102  64  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    96  57  96  56 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    104  72 103  71 /  10  20   0   0
Odessa                  104  73 102  71 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                    106  66 103  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-
     Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves
     County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Southern Lea County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...84


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