667
FXUS64 KMAF 192328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

- Strong northwesterly to northerly winds will continue through
  mid- afternoon along with areas of blowing dust. After today
  winds weaken and fire weather conditions improve to
  elevated/near critical (mostly due to the persistent extremely
  dry conditions).

- Widespread freezing temperatures tonight.

- Warmer and quieter conditions through the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A deep low pressure system continues to lift northeastward over the
vicinity of northern Missouri and southern Iowa early this
afternoon. An associated cold front is pushing into southeast New
Mexico and the northern/central Permian Basin. Winds are shifting
northerly behind the front, with temperatures in the 50s. Winds have
gusted over 45 mph at times across portions of southeast New Mexico
and west Texas this afternoon with areas of blowing dust obscuring
visibility at times. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for a good
portion of the area until 4 PM CDT (3 PM MDT), while a Blowing Dust
Advisory also continues for portions of southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin of west Texas until 4 PM CDT (3 PM MDT).

Winds will continue to turn northerly to northeasterly and decrease
in speed this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Dry conditions with mainly clear skies are anticipated
tonight with overnight lows trending much colder in the mid 20s to
near the freezing mark over southeast New Mexico and much of west
Texas. Warmer lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s are forecast over the
Lower Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande. A dry northwesterly to
zonal flow pattern aloft continues Thursday into Thursday night.
Surface high pressure will also shift to our east on Thursday, while
surface troughing takes shape across eastern New Mexico. Sunny skies
and dry conditions will persist on Thursday with highs mainly
ranging in the 60s, except 70s over portions of the Trans Pecos and
locations along the Rio Grande. Lows by Thursday night are forecast
to range in the 30s and 40s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

After multiple days of high winds and blowing dust, weather
conditions finally improve in the long term forecast. A general
warming trend is in store for the area, with highs in the 70s and
80s (lows in the 40s and 50s) each day (night) for most. Spots
near/along the Rio Grande could even see highs in the 90s. A couple
of shortwave troughs move over the Northern Plains late this week
and into the weekend, sending a couple of weak cold fronts into our
region. These fronts will have minimal impacts on our weather, only
shifting winds northerly and temporarily stunting the general
warming trend. The warmest part of this period looks to be Tuesday
of next week as mid-level ridging builds over the western CONUS. The
extended forecast remains dry, keeping the fire weather threat
elevated (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details).
However, winds are expected to be relatively light throughout this
period, limiting fire weather and blowing dust concerns.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
begin to decrease by 03Z tonight at all terminals. Winds are
expected to shift southerly to southeasterly tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Extremely dry weather conditions and ERCs at or above the 97th
percentile will persist through the next several days. Winds remain
gusty the rest of today, keeping fire weather concerns high. Despite
cooler temperatures, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
whole area (effective until 7PM CDT/6PM MDT this evening).
Thankfully, winds become much lighter after today (especially in the
long term). Fire weather concerns remain at least elevated due to
the continued dry conditions. However, the threat for fire weather
will be lower than it has been due to lighter winds. We will monitor
the winds through this weekend as a couple of weak cold fronts are
expected to move over the region in case we need to make adjustments
to our wind forecast as more data comes in.

-Greening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               31  68  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 27  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   39  70  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            35  70  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           33  62  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    28  63  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    23  65  31  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     31  66  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   32  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     29  68  36  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Eddy Plains-Lea-
     Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11