422
FXUS64 KMAF 062242
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal throughout this week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-30% chance) showers/storms are
  possible each day, mainly in the higher terrain west of the
  Pecos River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the
Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma, extending north up into Canada, and
buttressed by a deep trough over the PacNW, and another just off the
New England coast.  To the south, an inverted trough is pushing west
through south Texas, and will assist in keeping local thicknesses
lower than they otherwise would be.  Highs this afternoon should
come in only 7-9 F above climatology.  CAMs suggest this
afternoon/evening will not be as busy as 24 hours ago, suggesting
only isolated convection along the Rio Grande through early evening,
if that.

Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to remain under 30 kts, minimizing
mixing.  This will combine w/mostly clear skies to promote
relatively efficient radiational cooling, yielding minimums ~ 8-10 F
above normal.  This could be the coolest night this forecast.

Monday, the ridge develops a little further east, which will result
in highs the same or even just a skosh lower than this afternoon`s.
This may be the coolest day this forecast.  Isolated convection will
be possible in the Davis Mountains and along the Rio Grande.

Monday night looks very similar to tonight, only lows may edge up a
degree or so due to a stronger LLJ.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A trough moving across northern portions of the CONUS begins to
flatten out the ridge Tuesday, and by the latter half of the week
the center of the ridge is forced westward again. Temperatures
change very little across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as
this occurs. Highs remain in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations
through the week, with upper 80s and low 90s in the higher terrain.
Meanwhile, low rain chances (10-30%) become more confined to the
higher terrain west of the Pecos River. Going into the weekend,
models have come into a bit better agreement. Both the GFS and Euro
now depict the ridge becoming dampened by an incoming trough and
then being pushed east of our area by early next week. This would
cause heights to gradually decrease over the region, and therefore
result in at least slightly cooler temperatures by the end of the
weekend/ beginning of next week. At this time, low rain chances (10-
30%) remain mainly in/near the higher terrain over the weekend,
though decreasing subsidence may allow for additional rain chances
elsewhere. Details will become clearer in future forecast updates,
so stay tuned!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow,
w/a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field Monday, w/bases ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is not
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  98  74  99 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  96  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            70  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  87  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  87  61  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     73  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99