989
FXUS64 KMAF 160522
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Isolated showers/storms will be possible over portions of
  southeast New Mexico the mountains in West Texas this afternoon
  and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe.

- Hot temperatures can be expected through the middle of the week.
  The hottest conditions are forecast for Tuesday, accompanied by
  breezy winds. Many locations will reach near or above 100
  degrees during this time, with a few locations along the Rio
  Grande potentially reaching up to 108-113 degrees Monday through
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An outflow boundary from a decaying storm complex to the northeast
of our region is cooling portions of the Permian Basin off this
afternoon. This should lower any rain chances for the Permian
Basin later today. Although, some showers/storms may still develop
near the higher terrain out west. Thu PoPs remain low 10-20% for
these areas. Overall, mid- level ridging has taken hold of our
weather pattern and will influence weather in our region for the
next several days. Lows tonight and Monday night will drop into
the 70s for most. Monday afternoon temperatures heat up beyond the
century mark for the majority of the area, with 90s forecast for
the Marfa Plateau, the Davis Mountains, and the southeastern
Permian Basin. Highs near and along the Rio Grande and Pecos
river valleys will range between 105- 110 degrees. Aside from any
subsiding convection from earlier today, the short term forecast
remains dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tuesday is set to be our hottest day in the forecast period. Highs
are expected to top out in the 105-110 degree mark across much of
southeastern New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. The
thermometer looks to reach the 110-113 degree range near and
along the Rio Grande, while most everywhere else outside of the
mountains heat into the low 100s. However, Tuesday will also be a
turning point in our upper-level pattern as a trough from the
starts to shove the aforementioned ridge back off to the west. A
surface low will develop over the Great Plains Tuesday afternoon,
resulting in breezy, southwesterly winds. Wednesday, geopotential
heights gradually lower overhead and highs drop down a touch, in
the upper 90s and low 100s. Although, highs in the 110-112 degree
range are still expected near the Rio Grande Wednesday afternoon.
During the latter half of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
the upper ridge gradually returns, but with its axis further north
of our area. This allows our highs to stay primarily in the 90s
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions hold for the next 24 hours. Winds remain
southeasterly with gusts returning during the today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  76 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                104  75 107  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  101  75 105  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           102  75 106  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           97  74  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                   101  72 105  69 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    94  65  98  66 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport    102  76 105  76 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                  101  76 105  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    104  75 108  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93