Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
202 FXUS64 KMEG 311718 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to unseasonably dry air and existing drought conditions. Please exercise caution with any open flames. - Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day weekend with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. - A pattern change this week will bring much-needed chances for rain Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of unseasonably cool air. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today`s forecast is essentially a rinse and repeat of yesterday. Light northeast/east winds, very dry air filtering in from the airmass over the Great Lakes, and late summer seasonable warmth makes this a very comfortable last day of August. Highs will hover right around 90 degrees today, which is actually surprisingly manageable with humidity as low as it is. Dewpoints continue to be overestimated a little in the short term guidance, so opted for a blend of NBM 25th percentile which is more reflective of the current conditions and persistence forecast. This also means fire danger will continue to be a concern today, especially with the ongoing drought conditions seen pretty much everywhere to varying degrees across the Mid-South. Wildfires could spread quickly, so use extra caution when handling open flames. The biggest change of this forecast is the timing of precip midweek. The surface pattern is pretty nondescript tomorrow and Tuesday morning, warranting a PoP around 20-30% just due to weak shortwave perturbations that may stir up some showers and thunderstorms. The best shot (50% chance) at more widespread rain now looks to arrive as early as Tuesday afternoon with pre- frontal convergence and low level moisture return. The actual parent system and its associated cold front will not move through until Thursday morning, but the moisture axis is so far displaced ahead of the front that it`s pretty unlikely we`ll even see any rain during FROPA. Looks like by that point, it`ll pretty much be a dry, reinforcing cold front. The airmass behind Thursday`s front is significantly drier and cooler than first week of September standards. A highly amplified upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and resultant northwesterly flow aloft will keep us in this pattern for quite a while. This will likely worsen ongoing drought conditions and send fire weather concerns back on the rise by late week. However, it also makes for extremely pleasant early fall conditions with temperatures barely climbing above 80 degrees late week into the following weekend, including very low humidity. We still have a high chance (70-80%) of below normal temperatures through September 9 per the latest CPC outlook. CAD && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions continue across the area. Generally NE winds around 10 kts will fall back below 7 kts into the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Elevated fire weather danger is present across the Mid-South today and will continue tomorrow. This is mainly due to low humidity (MinRHs below 30%, especially for north MS in the Holly Springs NF area) and ongoing drought conditions leading to dry fuels. Rainfall will be pretty isolated early next week and may not provide much drought relief, though MinRHs do increase to 50+% by Tuesday. Another cool and dry airmass is on its way midweek and may further exacerbate fire weather concerns starting Friday depending on how widespread the rainfall we receive next week is. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA