Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
847 FXUS62 KMFL 102319 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 719 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 An area of heavy showers and thunderstorms has zippered down the east coast metro this afternoon causing some flooding issues, especially along coastal roads because the heavy rainfall coincided with high tide which prevented the rainfall from draining in some locations. That area of heavy rain is now impacting Miami-Dade, and while some additional instances of street flooding are still expected over the next few hours, the good news is that we`re getting further away from the peak of the high tide so drainage along the coast should be more efficient. Elsewhere across South FL, mainly overcast skies expected with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the early evening. Only headline added this forecast cycle was a brief Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore Palm Beach waters from late tonight through mid day Saturday. This is for elevated seas to around 8 feet. The rest of the forecast through the extended period remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Superpositioning shortwaves across the Southeast will amplify and deepen the eastern CONUS trough today through tomorrow. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to start to take shape this evening as the frontal system moves into the western Atlantic. By the end of the day Saturday, a well defined and strengthening surface low is expected to be in the western Atlantic off the GA coast. As the system begins to take shape today, an elongated trough axis is expected to be present across the southern half of Florida and will likely be the focus for convection through the entire day. With PWATs on the upper end of climatology and weak/variable flow near the trough axis, slow moving storms capable of producing heavy rain will be possible today. Exactly where these set up along the east coast will be the main question. While 1-2" will be common in the more robust storms, a reasonable worst case could result in 3-5" falling over a relatively short period of time. As the frontal system starts to wrap up overnight, mid/upper level dry air will fill in across the region and put an end to the heavy rain/robust storm development. It`ll probably take through Saturday to get the surface front through South Florida, so there will still be a chance for some scattered light to moderate rain as the front moves through. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 We start to run into differing scenarios in the ensembles as we enter the late weekend into next week. It all seems to come down to the evolution of the east coast trough and whether a shortwave cuts off, or a more full eastern CONUS trough remains intact. This has implications on how much latitude the developing surface low gains and just how much low-level dry air will reach south Florida and how quickly. About a third of the global ensembles cutoff the shortwave and keep the surface low closer to the Southeast coast until it weakens. This would result in a more moist low-level environment for us. As it stands now, most of the ensembles support a more progressive pattern that ushers dry air into the region by Sunday and keeps in in place for much of next week. While highs and lows will be near seasonal norms, relative humidity levels could fall into the 40-60% range Monday through Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Vicinity showers will continue for the next couple of hours with a mainly dry period expected overnight. A few showers will be possible across far southern Florida, so included VCSH for the southeast sites. A front is expected to pass through the area Saturday and winds will veer to the west by the afternoon and northwest into the early morning hours Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 An area of low pressure will develop across the state today and move offshore into the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard as it strengthens. Offshore winds will back to a more northerly direction today across the Gulf waters, and veer onshore and briefly southerly over the Atlantic waters. Late Saturday through mid-week winds across both coasts should maintain a northerly component, but remain below cautionary levels through the period. The main marine hazard will be northerly swell funneling down the east coast on the west side of the developing low. In a worst case, this could briefly bring Advisory level seas to our Palm Beach coastal and offshore waters late this weekend into early next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Northerly swells will create elevated surf conditions and a high risk for strong and frequent rips along the Palm Beaches this weekend into next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Astronomical tides will continue their slow downward trend over the next several days, however minor coastal flooding will remain a concern along the east coast through at least the end of the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 85 72 87 / 70 70 20 10 West Kendall 73 86 71 87 / 70 60 20 10 Opa-Locka 74 86 72 87 / 60 70 20 10 Homestead 74 85 72 87 / 70 60 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 84 72 86 / 70 60 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 72 86 / 60 60 20 10 Pembroke Pines 74 87 72 89 / 60 60 20 10 West Palm Beach 73 84 71 85 / 50 50 20 10 Boca Raton 73 86 71 86 / 60 60 20 10 Naples 73 85 72 85 / 60 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ650. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...17