429
FXUS62 KMFL 141206
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
806 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A typical June SE wind flow pattern is in place across South
Florida this morning, with scattered showers over the nearshore
Atlantic waters moving onshore over metro SE Florida. ACARS
soundings from the area early this morning show only modest
moisture levels (PWAT around 1.5 inches) with relatively dry air
above 700 mb. Therefore we expect little to no lightning activity
with these Atlantic and east coast metro showers for the remainder
of the morning.

Latest high-resolution models indicate scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the interior and
western sections of South Florida, corresponding with the
aforementioned synoptic wind flow. QPF LPMM values are 2-3 inches
over portions of Collier County which represent possible
localized high-end values, with average rain amounts of 0.5 to 1
inch concentrated across Collier County with lower amounts in
Hendry and Glades counties. At the same time, a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze circulation and drier air coming in from the
east will largely shut down precipitation over metro SE Florida
from about 2 PM through dusk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Latest analysis shows upper level high pressure remaining over the
region, with surface high pressure firmly entrenched in the western
Atlantic. Latest soundings show plenty of dry air aloft, with some
some shallow moisture available for showers and occasional
thunderstorms. Saharan dust will continue to filter into the region
this weekend which will help suppress convection chances, but won`t
eliminate it. Nocturnal showers will be present along the coasts
this morning and again overnight tonight into early Sunday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early
evening and again on Sunday will favor inland and SW FL, with mostly
dry conditions over the east coast metro.

High temps this afternoon and again on Sunday will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Low temps tonight will range from around 70 over
inland SW FL to around 80 closer to the Atlantic coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The pattern next week will remain consistent with surface high
pressure remaining over the western Atlantic and upper level high
pressure remaining over the region. Saharan dust is expected to
dissipate early in the week however forecast soundings show upper
level dry air remaining in place through at least mid week.
Convection will be fairly typical under this pattern with overnight
and early morning coastal showers and afternoon and early evening
showers and storms favoring inland and SW FL each day.

Temps will remain several degrees above normal next week with highs
ranging from the upper 80s to low/mid 90s inland, and low temps in
the lower 70s inland and around 80 across the east coast metro near
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered SHRA across SE Florida and nearshore Atlantic waters
will likely produce brief MVFR conditions at terminals through
18z, but no major impacts or long-duration reductions in
ceiling/visibility expected. SHRA/TSRA will concentrate over
interior and western peninsula after 18z, reflected by PROB30
TSRA at KAPF. Wind 120-140 degrees at 11-14 knots with a few
gusts near 20 knots, except SW seabreeze at KAPF 17z-00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Moderate SE flow remains in place this weekend. Scattered showers
and storms are possible each day across the local waters which may
result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection,
seas in the Atlantic 1-3 ft, and seas in the Gulf 2 ft or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Moderate SE flow will result in an elevated risk of rip currents
this weekend for the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  89  80 /  40  20  40  20
West Kendall     90  76  91  76 /  40  20  40  20
Opa-Locka        91  79  91  80 /  40  20  40  20
Homestead        89  78  89  79 /  30  30  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  88  80 /  40  20  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  89  79 /  40  20  30  20
Pembroke Pines   92  81  93  81 /  40  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  79 /  40  20  30  20
Boca Raton       90  79  91  79 /  40  20  30  20
Naples           90  75  90  75 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
UPDATE/AVIATION...Molleda