619
FXUS62 KMFL 041102
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
602 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue into the middle
   of the week, mainly for Atlantic zones and beaches.

 - The combination of the next King Tide cycle this week and
   breezy onshore winds may result in periods of minor coastal
   flooding along the east coast of South Florida as the week
   progresses. Will have to monitor further for the potential for
   moderate flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Strong surface high pressure will be the commanding presence and
influence on the local weather across South Florida as we head into
the mid-week period. The center of the surface high is expected to
situate over the Carolinas today and the overall surface ridge will
stretch across the Deep South and northern Gulf. This will keep a
deep trough of low pressure basically locked in place in the far
southwestern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of
Campeche. South Florida will sit in the southern half of the high
pressure circulation, resulting in a steady easterly to
northeasterly gusty wind flow for the next couple of days. Winds
will generally be in the 10-15 mph range for sustained winds and
gusts will reach the 20-25 mph with potential for some observing
sites to hit 30 mph on isolated occasions. Other than an increase in
winds for today and tomorrow, there are no weather hazards in the
forecast.

High temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to be in the
low to mid 80s for both days. Overnight lows Tuesday night will
range from the low 60s west of the lake to the upper 60s and low 70s
near the coasts. With easterly flow, warmest overnight lows will
occur along the east coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 105 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Latest ensembles show the mid-level low in the south-central Gulf
continuing to retrograde through Wednesday towards the Tex/Mex
border as the low gets blocked from progressing eastward due to the
expansive surface high pressure and broad mid-level ridge stretching
across most of the central and eastern CONUS. This ridging setup
will begin to break down on Thursday, which will allow the low
pressure in the southwest Gulf to start progressing eastwards. This
will allow for some moisture return as low level flow becomes
southwesterly. However, at the same time, the low will also be
losing some of its steam as it propagates eastward and the brunt of
positive vorticity will be dissipating before even arriving into the
South Florida region later on Thursday and into Friday.

Therefore, while this energy will provide some forcing for ascent,
it will not be of robust nature and thus the nature of potential
shower and thunderstorm development remains uncertain. Guidance is
very split on the potential for rain and especially with how much
rain is possible. As a result, based on the latest trends a drier
solution is currently being favored with slight chance PoPs for
Friday. This will continue to be evaluated as the week moves along.
A quiet weather pattern is then likely to return for the weekend
ahead of the next large synoptic trough swinging through the eastern
U.S. early next week.

High temperatures are expected to be on the rise little by little
each day, with highs in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday expected to
rise to the mid to upper 80s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

NE winds 5-10 kts early this morning increase to 10-15 kts late
morning through the early evening. Mainly VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Hazardous conditions will continue today and into tonight for the
Atlantic waters with cautionary conditions present for the Gulf
waters. A fresh to strong breeze continues for the Atlantic waters
with seas of 5-7 feet. Gulf seas will be at 2-4 feet with a moderate
breeze. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the Atlantic zones
through this evening for elevated winds and seas before conditions
fall to cautionary levels Tuesday night. Marine conditions are
expected to further improve for later in the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 105 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

A high risk for rip currents continues for the Atlantic coast
through mid-week and into late week. This will occur in tandem with
the King Tide cycle around the full moon which may result in minor
to moderate coastal flooding along the east coast of South Florida
during and around high tide.

Currently, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the
Atlantic coast for potential for this morning`s high tide cycle to
reach minor flood stage. We will be further monitoring trends for
the potential of reaching moderate flood stage in the next day or
two.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  73  82  73 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     81  71  83  69 /   0   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        82  72  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        81  73  82  72 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  73  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  73  82  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   84  73  85  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  73  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  73  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           84  67  85  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF