874
FXUS62 KMFL 040635
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
235 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

 - An active weather pattern remains in place through the upcoming
   holiday weekend as scattered to numerous showers and
   thunderstorms will develop each day. The strongest storms could
   contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms will continue to create the potential for
   localized flooding especially over the urban and poor drainage
   areas.

 - High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across
   most of South Florida through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A couple of mid level disturbances will gradually shift and move a
bit further away from the region today. The first one will be a
broad mid level low that will push into the northwestern Gulf, and
then a weak mid level shortwave that will extend into Southern
Georgia and Northern Florida. With these features being far enough
away from the area, this will allow for 500mb temperatures to remain
rather steady today between -5 and -6C. At the surface, high
pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to extend
over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf as the day
progresses. While the surface ridge axis will remain to the north
of the region, there will be a slight enhancement of the synoptic
southeasterly wind regime over the region. Plenty of moisture will
remain in place through the atmospheric column as PWAT values will
generally range between 2.1 and 2.4 inches today.

This abundance of moisture in place will once again support the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as
the sea breezes develop and push inland. With a slightly stronger
southeasterly breeze today, shower and thunderstorm activity should
gradually shift more towards the interior and Southwest Florida by
mid to late afternoon. With the absences of mid level support,
strong thunderstorm development will be rather limited and the main
threats from convection will be heavy downpours as well as frequent
lightning. The high moisture content in the atmosphere could lead to
another day of enhanced rainfall rates which could lead to localized
flooding, especially over areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall
in the past several days. High temperatures today will rise into the
lower 90s across most areas with peak heat index values generally
ranging between 103 and 108.

Moving into the first part of the weekend, a deeper mid level trough
will begin to dig southeastward across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic states, and then into the western Atlantic off of the
Southeast coastline. This will generally leave South Florida in a
weakness wedged between two mid level ridges, one building over the
Plains, and another one pushing further eastward into the Atlantic.
At the surface, high pressure in the Atlantic will gradually begin
to shift southward as a weakening cold front pushes into the
Southeastern portion of the country. This will allow for the
synoptic wind flow to remain rather light and surface winds will
remain sea breeze driven as Saturday progresses. Moisture content
will remain rather high which will allow for another day of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. With
lack of mid level support, chances for strong thunderstorm
development will continue to remain very limited, however, the
stronger storms will contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning.
The potential for localized flooding will continue to remain in
place due to the combination of slow storm motion and high rainfall
rates. High temperatures on Saturday will rise into the lower 90s
across most areas with peak heat index values ranging between 103
and 108.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Heading into the second half of the weekend and into early next week
the latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in pretty
good agreement with shifting the aforementioned mid level trough
offshore, however, the mid level trough axis will remain near by
just to the northeast of the region for Sunday into Monday. At the
surface, the weakening cold front will eventually stall out over the
Deep South and Northern Florida. This will allow for the synoptic
wind flow to become more south southwesterly during this time frame.
Deep tropical moisture advection will continue through Sunday and
Monday as well and the mid level steering flow will remain light.
With the best mid to upper level support remaining well off to the
northeast of the region, convective initiation will remain sea
breeze driven each day during this time frame, with the highest
chances of showers and thunderstorms shifting over the interior and
east coast metro areas during the afternoon and evening hours.
Chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain rather
limited, however, heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined
with slow storm motion will keep the potential for localized
flooding in place especially across the urban and low lying areas.
High temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early next
week will generally rise into the lower to mid 90s.

Moving into the middle portion of the week, mid level troughing
gradually begins to lift northeastward further away from the region
and mid level ridging will slowly try to work back into the area. At
the surface, the stalled frontal boundary to the north will
gradually wash out as high pressure builds back into the region.
This will allow for a return to a light easterly synoptic wind flow
during this time frame across most areas. Leftover moisture from
what is left of the old frontal boundary to the north will continue
to pool over South Florida, especially on Tuesday. The latest
guidance suite is hinting at moisture levels dropping a bit on
Wednesday as the building mid level ridge increases subsidence
across the region. With mid level heights slowly rising, and mid
level temperatures slowly warming, strong thunderstorm development
will remain very limited during this time frame and the main hazards
with thunderstorms will be the potential for heavy downpours and
frequent lightning each afternoon and evening. High temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s across the east
coast metro areas, and into the mid 90s across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Light and variable winds are forecast to persist overnight for all
terminals, maintaining VFR conditions. Into the early morning
Friday, offshore showers in the vicinity of all terminal sites
will begin to develop. As a primarily S/SE flow sets up across
SoFlo in the early afternoon, t-storm development will favor the
interior. For APF, the Gulf breeze will shift winds to a primarily
WSW flow in the early afternoon. Confidence remains low on direct
shower/t-storm impacts to all terminals. As convection begins to
diminish into the later evening, winds will return to light and
variable overnight into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across most
of the local waters through the first half of the weekend. The
exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where they will
become south southwesterly each afternoon during this time frame.
Winds shift and become south southwesterly across all local waters
heading into the second half of the weekend and into early next
week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet
or less through the upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  90  78 /  50  20  60  20
West Kendall     90  78  89  76 /  50  20  70  20
Opa-Locka        90  80  90  77 /  50  20  70  20
Homestead        91  79  90  77 /  60  30  60  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  79 /  60  30  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  80  90  79 /  50  20  60  10
Pembroke Pines   89  79  90  78 /  50  20  60  20
West Palm Beach  91  79  91  77 /  40  20  70  10
Boca Raton       89  80  89  78 /  50  20  60  10
Naples           91  77  90  77 /  40  30  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC/AEG