947
FXUS62 KMFL 221756
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
156 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will focus mostly
   across Southwest Florida today and Thursday. A stronger storm
   or two is possible that is capable of producing strong wind
   gusts.

 - Heat index values will range from 100-105 across Southeast
   Florida and up to 105-110 across Southwest Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Not much change in the pattern for today through Thursday as
Tropical Storm Bertha continues to slowly work further westward away
from the area and surface high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic expands more over South Florida. This will cause low level
flow to become more easterly, which will shift the focus for shower
and thunderstorm development towards Southwest Florida and the
interior over the next couple days, although the east coast metro is
likely to see some morning shower activity due to speed convergence.
PWATs are expected to climb a little closer to climatological norms
at around 1.4-1.6" on average across the area, which is between the
10th-25th percentile for this time of year. Even though it`s a
little below normal, this amount of moisture should provide enough
support for diurnal heating and the sea breezes to spark some
convective showers and storms across the region. Hi-res model
soundings also highlight moisture filling in pretty well from the
700mb height level and below. Nevertheless, much drier air is still
expected to be present above the 700mb height level, suggesting that
most activity across the region will be of a shallower and weaker
variety. However, it is definitely possible to get a couple of
isolated robust storm cores to develop. Sounding parameters indicate
SBCAPE and MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg, while DCAPE is in
excess of 1000-1200 J/kg particularly in SW Florida along with
inverted-V soundings. Therefore, if a stronger core develops, it
could produce a downburst of gusty winds that approaches marginally-
severe levels, although most likely staying in the sub-severe
category.

Heading into Thursday, an upper-level trough will advect across Cuba
and the Florida Straits with the brunt of this energy staying away
from South Florida. The main impact from this will be an increase in
deeper moisture with potential for increasingly widespread coverage
of showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will still act
as a suppressor, but diurnal heating and the sea breezes will
eventually be able to take advantage of the deeper moisture and
ignite convective initiation. As easterly flow becomes even more
established on Thursday, the focus for the most widespread showers
and storms will be across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned
closer to the coast.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will remain in the low to mid
90s for most areas, although some interior locations might reach the
upper 90s. Because of the drier air arriving, no Heat Advisory has
been issued due to this drier air helping to lower dew points and
relative humidity by a few degrees. This is expected to result in
the region avoiding reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A strong ridge pattern across the western US will continue to expand
across to even the southeastern US while surface high pressure
remains parked over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern will prevent
troughing across most of the Eastern Seaboard from pushing further
south, which is expected to keep the local weather primarily sea
breeze driven, although some vorticity advection from the upper-
level low tracking across Cuba could provide extra support for
shower and thunderstorm development on Friday as even deeper
moisture returns to the region. Highest rain chances would remain
across SW Florida as low level flow remains easterly around the
ridge. For the weekend time period, troughing becomes enhanced
across the Eastern Seaboard due to the strengthening ridge producing
a quasi-meriodional flow at jet stream level. Energy from this
trough could push far enough south for Sunday and into early next
week, but this still remains uncertain given it is near the end of
the forecast period. Regardless, after a brief lull in increased
rain shower and thunderstorm activity, the pattern looks to become
more active over the next week.

High temperatures each day will continue to reach the low to mid
90s. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s for interior South
Florida to the upper 70s and low 80s near the Gulf and Atlantic
coasts. Potential for Heat Advisories will continue with each day
assessed carefully due to most days being a marginal scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

SHRA activity has developed across most of the inland South
Florida as breezy southeasterly flow continues at all east coast
terminals. A gulf breeze is forecast to develop at KAPF between
18z-20z with chances of VCTS increasing at KAPF after 20z. L/V
winds are forecast overnight with mainly VFR conditions expected.
SHRA/TSRA impacting any terminal may result in erratic wind
shifts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A moderate southeasterly wind flow will be in place across the local
waters today and is expected to become more easterly to
northeasterly for the end of the week as surface high pressure
expands further across the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across all local waters each day. Seas across the
Gulf waters will range from 2-3 feet with the Atlantic at 2 feet or
less into the end of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Collier beaches
today. This risk is expected to subside after today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  80  92 /  10  30  40  40
West Kendall     77  93  77  93 /  10  30  30  40
Opa-Locka        80  94  80  93 /  10  30  30  40
Homestead        80  93  79  92 /  10  30  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  10  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  81  92  80  91 /  10  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  93 /  10  30  40  40
West Palm Beach  79  92  79  91 /  10  20  30  50
Boca Raton       81  91  80  90 /  10  20  40  40
Naples           76  95  77  93 /  20  50  10  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi