Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
333 FXUS62 KMFL 270817 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 417 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms starting late this morning and continuing into the afternoon hours, favoring east coast metro areas. Some storms may become strong or even severe. - Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or poor drainage flooding. Other hazards include lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts and potential for large hail. - Heat index values over 100 degrees will again return today and continue through the work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Synoptic pattern will remain similar to previous days with a high pressure ridge dominating the upper lvls while mid-lvl ridging over the Gulf states expands into the Florida peninsula today. Meanwhile, a trough/low complex is migrating into the W Atl, with an associated sfc frontal boundary stretched across the SE CONUS. Overall, there will be persistent instability across the region combined with plenty of moisture available for deep convection to develop each afternoon. Although the general synoptic flow will be defined by weak westerly steering flow, winds at the sfc may become light and variable at times through Tuesday morning. This will allow for afternoon sea breezes and outflow boundaries to again become focal points for lifting/deeper convection, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest high-res and ensemble solutions keep SoFlo under streaming deep tropical moisture, but with a possible mid-lvl layer of drier air developing today due to the aforementioned ridge axis from the Gulf. 00Z MFL sounding and model sounding data depict PWATs in the 2.3-2.6" range, while CAPE/DCAPE should again reach the 2K-3K/700-800 J/kg respectively, and along with LIs in the -5 to -7 C range. These parameters indicate potential for a highly unstable low atmosphere, which could result in robust updrafts and strong to severe cells. The mentioned weak nature of the synoptic flow could again result in slow-moving storms, which could bring localized flooding. In addition, the other hazards possible with any storm that forms will be damaging gusty winds, lightning strikes and large hail. The sfc wind westerly component will again favor east coast locations, including the metro areas, for having the best chances of showers and thunderstorms. East Miami-Dade and Broward counties seem to carry the highest POPs attm with max values in the 70-80% by early this afternoon. Most of SoFlo will continue to experience high temps in the low 90s each day and despite of the expected rain/thunderstorm coverage. This is due to having enough time during the morning and early afternoon hours for sufficient daytime heating to occur. Highs will again hit the low 90s, while morning lows will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s near the coasts and low to mid 70s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Latest GFS/EURO and NBM POPs are trending towards lower values during the long term compared to previous runs with potential for a mid-week drying trend. One contributing factor will be patches of Saharan dust filtering into SoFlo, which will bring increasing stability and a stronger mid-lvl cap. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day. Rain coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday with up to 50% around the Lake region where the best pool of moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of POPs south-to-north from 30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region. With less rain and cloud coverage, expect temperatures to remain above normals, with afternoon highs temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 VFR will persist through around 15Z, with L/V winds turning generally SW in the 6-10kt range. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during the afternoon, which could bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis, especially at the Atlantic sites. Winds become L/V after 00Z with VFR prevailing tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds continue today expected today across the Atlantic waters and moderate northwesterly winds across the Gulf waters. Seas will remain around 2 feet or less. Scattered thunderstorms possible this morning and again late tonight across the area waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 78 92 79 / 80 10 50 0 West Kendall 91 75 92 76 / 80 10 50 0 Opa-Locka 92 78 93 78 / 80 10 50 0 Homestead 91 77 92 79 / 80 20 50 0 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 92 79 / 70 20 60 0 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 92 79 / 70 20 60 0 Pembroke Pines 92 79 93 80 / 80 20 50 0 West Palm Beach 92 77 93 77 / 50 20 70 10 Boca Raton 91 77 91 78 / 60 20 70 0 Naples 91 79 90 81 / 30 40 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17