124
FXUS62 KMFL 261848
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

 - A few isolated showers across Southeast Florida this afternoon,
   but mostly dry weather is expected.

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today and will
   linger into Sunday.

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions
   of the Atlantic coast this weekend during high tide cycles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Thanks to dry, continental air advecting down the
peninsula over South Florida, clearer skies and drier conditions are
forecast throughout the weekend. As a low pressure system churns
offshore of the New England coast, surface high pressure will work
its way over the SE, keeping our weather pattern more quiet than
usual into Monday. While low rain chances (<20%) and dewpoints
ranging from high 60s to low 70s will keep our daytime weather
pleasant, afternoon seabreezes could influence a few weak, boundary
driven storms/showers, particularly over the coastal eastern metros.
Throughout Sunday, winds will relax with the surface pressure
gradient weakening, returning South Florida to a more seabreeze
dominated wind regime. Despite the wind shift, the chance of an
isolated storm/shower forming along the seabreeze remains low
(<15%). Hazardous beach/marine conditions are forecast into the
weekend as a result of increased wave heights courtesy of the NE low
pressure system. Dangerous swimming and surf conditions are expected
across the east Atlantic coast, along with a risk for minor to
moderate saltwater coastal flooding. Take caution when heading to
the beach this weekend, if in doubt, don`t go out!

High temperatures are to remain primarily in the upper 80s this
weekend, with areas near the lake potentially peaking in the mid
80s. Overnight lows Saturday/Sunday night range from the low to mid
60s near the lake to the upper 60s and low 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For early next week, the potent low pressure in the northeast US
will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave
trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through
the Florida Peninsula in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, low
level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly
direction and result in the return of deeper tropical moisture
advection. With this increasing moisture returning and the
shortwave trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent,
rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and
into the middle of next week across South Florida. Steady
moisture advection is then expected to continue through the end of
the week.

For the end of the week, ensembles are hinting that the subtropical
high in the western Atlantic will re-build and expand further east,
resulting in a return to steady easterly flow. This setup favors
the highest rain chances over SW Florida (65-80%) with slightly
lower chances across SE Florida (50-60%) by Friday and into next
weekend. Essentially, this pattern suggests the most widespread
activity will be seen over SW Florida with more scattered activity
over the east coast metro areas.

High temperatures will rebound slightly through the period, with
highs each day reaching anywhere from the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler through Monday night
with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in
the low to mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s. By Tuesday night and beyond, overnight lows
will increase back into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

NNE winds will persist throughout Saturday afternoon
into evening for eastern TAF sites. Drier and more stable
atmospheric conditions should keep shower/storm activity low.
Overnight into Sunday, winds should weaken to light and variable for
all terminals. For MIA, OPF, and TMB, a tentative VCSH is introduced
overnight to account for any coastal, boundary driven showers. At
APF, winds will be out of the NNW throughout Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected to linger across the Atlantic
waters this weekend. Moderate northerly winds today will weaken more
on Sunday, but a northerly/northeasterly swell continues due to a
strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still expected to
reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning. With these wave conditions,
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Sunday morning but
are expected to drop off after that as calmer conditions return
heading into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast
beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk
northerly winds continue. In addition, the High Surf Advisory
remains in effect for the Palm Beaches for big breaking waves of up
to 7-8 feet today.

Furthermore, the King Tide Cycle this weekend is expected to result
in more periods of coastal flooding. Observations continue to out-
perform guidance by a decent margin and thus we could see minor to
moderate flooding. Based on today`s observations, there is a good
chance that Palm Beach and Broward coastlines reach moderate
flooding, while Miami-Dade should remain at minor. The Coastal Flood
Statement has been upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory for Palm
Beach and Broward, with the Coastal Flood Statement remaining in
place for Miami-Dade. Both of these products will run through Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  86  73  86 /  20  20  10  20
West Kendall     71  86  72  86 /  30  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        72  86  72  86 /  20  20  10  20
Homestead        71  86  72  87 /  30  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  72  86  72  86 /  10  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  72  86  72  86 /   0  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   71  86  71  86 /  10  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  71  86  71  87 /   0   0  10  10
Boca Raton       71  85  71  86 /  10  10   0  10
Naples           69  86  70  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AEG
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...AEG