697
FXUS62 KMHX 272327
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
727 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place through early
next week, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland.
The next frontal system approaches the east coast mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Heat Advisory cancelled, but threat for an isolated strong
   storm remains through sunset

Temperatures have fallen quite a bit this evening, heavily
owing to the plentiful amount of cool outflow spreading across
the region from this afternoon`s convection. Only storms left
are confined to the coastal plain, with brief flare ups tied
with boundary collisions. Storms have had histories of producing
intense rainfall (rates north of 2" an hour at times) as well as
quick but strong downbursts with gusts up to 50 mph, and this
risk will persist while convection remains active. Most CAMs
have activity coming to an end by 9pm. After that, mostly dry
conditions expected tonight, with temperatures slowly falling
into the 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...High pressure remains offshore tomorrow with
subtle lee troughing across interior NC. Ridging aloft will help
inhibit convection, and only isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon, mostly initiated by
sea/sound breezes. High temps will again reach the low to mid
90s, and with humid conditions persisting, heat indices will
reach 100 to 105 in the afternoon. A few place could top 105,
but it looks like this will be isolated enough to forgo heat
headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

Upper level ridge continues weakening, eventually shifting
offshore, as highs persist in the low to mid 90s, with heat
indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The cumulative effect
of several days with high heat indices (and little relief at
night) is something for those working or spending much time
outside to consider as they make preparations for the heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea
breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development
each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors
pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level
support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday,
as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week,
a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the
best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still
uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow
through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week, highest
Wednesday PM when models suggest the frontal precip moves
through. Severe potential looks to be limited at this time, with
best upper level forcing and shear well to the north. However,
ample instability paired with PWATS near 2" could bring heavy
rain, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts with convection
associated with the front. If the front ends up stalling over
the region next week, this could provide an axis for persistent,
heavy precip, and will be worth monitoring for flash flooding
concerns. Plenty of possible scenarios at this point with the
frontal passage still 5-6 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sun/...
As of 725 PM Fri...Mainly VFR conditions prevail across
terminals this evening, with brief interruptions associated with
spotty but strong convection. Tstorm threat now continued to
mainly ISO and PGV through 01z, then dry conditions likely to
prevail through tomorrow afternoon. Tonight, a weak breeze
should keep the low levels mixed enough to limit fog formation.
Some light patchy fog still can`t be ruled out, but not
expecting anything impactful. VFR conditions and partly cloudy
skies expected tomorrow, with iso convection redeveloping in the
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Friday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds
light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR
level patchy fog will be possible each morning. As high builds
offshore, southerly flow will usher in a more deep moist
airmass, increasing tstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday. With
tstorms, there could be reduced vis and cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Good boating conditions continue through
tomorrow with high pressure over the region still. Winds will be
SW at 10-20 kts this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow
afternoon/evening, and subside slightly overnight to 5-15 kts.
Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night though Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected
through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over the
region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which
will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength
and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are
expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea breeze
for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient for
coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the weekend,
with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday. Tuesday
pressure gradient tightens with high strengthening offshore, and
winds pick up to become 15-25kt Tuesday out of the S/SW.
Tuesday into Wednesday will be our next best chance of seeing
small craft advisory criteria conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/MS
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ