019
FXUS62 KMHX 191727 CCA
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1227 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving front moves through today. A secondary backdoor
cold front moves through early Thursday. High pressure then
rebuilds offshore late this week with above normal temperatures
returning. A frontal system will bring the next chance of rain
this weekend, with cooler and drier conditions expected early
next week. Another system brings a small chance for rain by mid
week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 2 AM Wed...Pre-midnight low was observed for most areas,
before inc cirrus and an inc in low level srly flow ensued, with
temps rising through the 40s and 50s towards daybreak.

An area of light isentropically driven rain is still fcst to
sweep ewrd through the Hwy 64 corridor, possibly as far south as
the Hwy 264 corridor, through this morning. Otherwise, mo cloudy
skies will become partly cloudy through the afternoon hours
today, allowing for temps to warm into the 70s swrn zones to 60s
nern zones as broad but light swrly flow will be in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wed...Reinforcing backdoor front will sweep through
ENC late today and through this evening. A bank of stratus will
sweep in behind the front later tonight as frontal inversion
sets up. The clouds and nnerly breezes will keep temps mild
overnight, with readings in the 40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Mainly mild conditions expected with above
climo temps through mid next week. Chances for rain Fri night
into Sat, and then again by mid next week.

Thursday...Aforementioned frontal inversion will linger into the
day, keeping weak in-situ CAD setup in place with lingering
stratus. NAM is best at capturing this regime, and have inc
cloud cover and lowered temps as a result. Later shifts have
room to go a bit cooler, esp if the ovc conditions linger
through much of the afternoon. For now, highs around 60 at best
for most locales with light nerly flow continuing.

Fri through Sat...Next frontal system moves in bringing light
rain chances. Kept pops in the chc range for now, but latest
19/00Z ECM cont to be wettest and may have to inc pops
eventually. Rain amts do not appear impressive, and little to
no instability present, so kept thunder mention over the warmer
Gulf waters where some instability resides.

Sun through Tue...High pressure is then forecast to build in
behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing.
Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg
during this period, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Low stratus expected to bring sub-VFR ceilings tonight
   behind the passage of a cold front

VFR conditions prevail across ENC as of early Wednesday
afternoon, with some mid-level clouds with bases of 7-10 kft
working their way eastward across the area. A few light showers
are noted across the northern tier of the of the forecast area.
These will remain north of TAF sites but may bring brief periods
of light showers to the northern Outer Banks. Conditions will
continue to dry out as skies clear through the afternoon. High
clouds will build back in this evening as a cold front pushes
southward through the region. Winds will shift from generally
westerly to northerly behind the front, generally remaining 10
kts or less. Low stratus is expected to build in behind this
front tonight from northeast to southwest, bringing a period of
sub- VFR ceilings to much of ENC. Guidance still differs on
potential for low stratus to reach as far southwest as OAJ, but
guidance has trended more pessimistic since earlier this
morning. Thus, have opted for prevailing MVFR groups for all TAF
sites as of this cycle. Where low stratus sets in, guidance
suggests ceilings will drop further to IFR (and potentially
LIFR) conditions, but with some uncertainty remaining amongst
guidance regarding expanse and timing of low stratus, have opted
to only include a FEW009 group at this time. Potential for
IFR/LIFR ceilings will be monitored for future TAF cycles. There
is some uncertainty regarding how quickly low stratus will mix
out tomorrow morning, but current guidance suggests conditions
will improve to VFR for TAF sites during the late morning hours,
with sub-VFR ceilings lingering across the NOBX.

Outlook: High pressure remains in place into Friday. Should
winds ease enough, could see some VIS concerns with patchy early
morning fog as well. Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions
over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually
passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Wed...Swrly flow early this morning in the 5-15 kt
range (10-20 kt over the Gulf Stream). Cool front sweeps through
late today into this evening, with winds turning nnerly
generally 10-20 kt, with some ocnl gusts to 25 kt possible, but
not widespread enough to warrant any sca headlines attm. Winds
turn swrly on Fri night into early Sat ahead of next cold front.
Some sca winds possible on the well mixed Gulf waters during
this time, with remaining waters/sounds/rivers remaining well
below criteria. Seas may briefly get to 6+ ft south of around C
Hatteras this weekend with the swrly wind surge.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL