847
FXUS62 KMHX 151100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front then pushes through this morning. High pressure
dominates the rest of the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Earlier iso showers have since dissipated, and
a dry fcst through 18Z is expected. 15/06Z meso models (CAMS)
have since backed off a bit on covg of precip, and have edged
down pops just a bit for the srn zones. Still have sct shower
with iso thunder mention for the far south.

Prev disc...As of 345 AM Sat...Diffuse cold front currently
moving s to sewrd through nrn NC, with only some iso showers out
ahead of it moving through ENC early this morning. Iso showers
will move off the coast by around sunrise, with sct clouds and
and sun in it`s wake. CAPEs will pool acrs srn half of the FA
ahead of stronger back door front, which will move through the
region this afternoon. With initial front washing out acrs the
Crystal Coast region, a pinned sea breeze will form today, and
be the focus for sct tsra later this afternoon. With instability
building to aoa 1.5k J/KG, and shear vals aoa 25 kt, a stronger
storm or two is possible, though with main forcing sfc based
and not much upr support, no svr storms are expected. Pops are
highest along the Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow, in the
30-40% range, and taper back quickly n of this region, to dry
for the northern 2/3 of the FA. It will be quite hot today, with
nwrly to nrly flow keeping temps in the 90s all the way to the
Crystal Coast. The OBX will be refreshed by n to ne flow off the
cooler waters, and highs only in the low 80s here, particularly
the nrn OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Some lingering showers possible early this
evening, esp swrn zones, before drying occurs with deep nerly
flow overtaking ENC. This will bring drier air to the region,
and pleasant overnight temps are expected with clear skies and
light winds allowing for lows to drop back to the 60-65 range
inland, to upr 60s to near 70 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points:
- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the eastern US
through mid-week, which will bring several days of warm, dry weather
for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty warm each day (low 90s
coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore easterly flow will work in our
favor to keep us from even hotter temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long
range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will
develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of
Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on
Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs
remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of
moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal
communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at
this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present
increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon
minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through today/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Front is forecast to be crossing coastal TAF
sites around sunrise with N-Nerly winds today as high pressure
beings to build over the area. A few SHRA or stray storm may
develop this afternoon along the seabreeze, best chance srn
coastal sites 18-00Z, but probabilities are too low and covg not
enough to include explicitly in the TAFs attm. Have mentioned a
vcty shower for KOAJ as this area has the best chance to see
some precip late today.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 345 AM Sat..A period of 10-20kt northeasterly winds
behind back door cold front today as it moves through during the
late morning and afternoon. A few gusts to 25 kt possible with
the nerly surge this afternoon, though not long enough duration
to warrant any SCA headlines. Seas build to 3-4 ft this
afternoon with the nerly winds, with some 5 ft sets possible
outer ctrl waters later afternoon into evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Sub-SCA, warm, and dry through the
period.

Sunday: NE 10-15 kt, 2-4 ft (5 ft offshore)
Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt, 2-4 ft
Wednesday: E 10-15 kt, 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC