190
FXUS62 KMHX 021937
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but quick moving coastal low forms tonight impacting the
area overnight into early Monday with rain, heavy at times near
the coast. High pressure builds back over the Carolinas in the
low`s wake to drift offshore Wednesday. Dry cold front crosses
the FA late WED night/early THU with SFC ridge building to the N
into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sun...Potent upper low continues to dig towards
the southeastern coast this afternoon while surface coastal
trough continues to sharpen. MHX NEXRAD and GOES satellite data
indicate a small but compact low is attempting to form over the
western wall of the Gulf Stream south of Cape Lookout, with
periodic convection ongoing across the southern waters.

Hi-res model consensus in good agreement on the further
development of this small low tonight, quickly lifting near or
across the Outer Banks overnight and exiting Monday morning.
Good frontogenetic forcing aloft and isentropic lift will
result in widespread rain across the region, especially after
sunset, and maintained high PoPs from the previous forecast.
Still a signal for some enhanced rainfall totals along the track
of the low, where totals in excess of an inch are possible (and
up to 3" in a worst case scenario where robust convection tracks
inland). Best chances to see these totals is across down east
Carteret and the Outer Banks. Inland, rainfall totals will
likely range from a quarter to half inch.

Clouds and strong WAA tonight will keep lows considerably milder
than yesterday, in the mid to upper 50s and near 60 along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sun...Surface low will quickly race northward
tomorrow as upper low gradually moves overhead and then offshore
by Monday evening. Any ongoing precipitation in the morning
will be confined to eastern coastal locales and taper down to
light showers by the afternoon. Northwest winds pick up later in
the day in the wake of the low, but low clouds will stick
around through the day as moisture remains trapped under a low-
level inversion until dry air is able to mix down overnight.
Highs top out in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 0230 Sunday...

Key Messages:

  -  FA lies on the cool side of a low working up the Carolina
     coast monday, representing the only chance of rain during
     the work week.
  -  King Tide cycle this week brings elevated water levels and
     potential for minor coastal flooding
  -  High pressure through much of the period with dry cold
     FROPA middle of the week.

Early Week...Stout positively tilted trough aloft shifts Eward
with cutoff midlevel low traversing SC pushing offshore
deepening the coastal trough to a weak coastal low at the SFC
located somewhere just off, or perhaps directly over the
Crystal Coast, moving NEward through the day Monday. Rain
ongoing from Sunday night, heaviest along the immediate coast
early wanes through the day as the low pulls further away from
the MidAtlantic coast. Upper ridge centered over the Nern Gulf
keeps flow aloft zonal while strengthening SFC high to drifts
Eward across the MS River Valley and eventually off the coast of
the Carolinas Tues night.

Wednesday through end of week....WED, the SFC high furthers its
trip offshore, turning the early week Nerly low level flow
Serly leading to warmer conditions ahead of the next trough
aloft working Eward across the Mid- Atlantic WED night THU
morning. The trough will usher a SFC low across the Great Lakes
toward New England which will drag a dry cold front through the
FA at the same time. Another ridge builds in the wake of the
front toward DelMarVA leading to Nerly SFC flow regime and
cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...VFR conditions are noted across ENC this
afternoon with just some mid level stratus building into the
Crystal Coast/OBX ahead of a mesoscale complex of rain and
thunderstorms offshore. While we do have radar returns, general
thinking is TAF terminals remain precip free this afternoon as
it is very dry aloft and will take some time to moisten the
atmosphere especially the further inland you go. Expecting
primarily VFR conditions through just about all of the afternoon
with increasing rain chances closer to 22/23Z primarily across
EWN/OAJ terminals. As we get into this evening expect lower
clouds to build in from the south and west as low pressure
develops in off the coast and pushes NE`wards with MVFR ceilings
expected across all terminals by 03Z tonight and across all of
ENC by 06Z at the latest. Then expect ceilings to lower even
further around the 4-6Z timeframe to IFR with mainly IFR
ceilings expected at all TAF sites into Mon morning. In addition
to this, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorm activity is
forecast starting tonight and persisting into this morning.
Think any tstm activity would be east of the TAF sites so did
not include this in this issuance. A return to MVFR and VFR
ceilings is then forecast late Mon morning into Mon afternoon as
the aforementioned low pulls away from the area which would
also end any precip threat. While not explicitly stated there
is a low but non zero threat for some LLWS especially across the
OBX this evening and again on Mon morning as the low approaches
the area and then pulls away

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 0300 Sunday...

Key Messages...

  -  Sub-VFR conditions Mon improving through the day
  -  VFR flight cats persist through rest of work week once
     coastal departs to the NE

Coastal low pressure system brings widespread rain, heaviest
along coast, and lower clouds and vis to the FA. More benign
weather and VFR conditions are then expected by Tue and into
Wednesday as aforementioned low pulls away from ENC and high
pressure builds overhead. Dry cold front crosses WED night with
high pressure again building over ECONUS late week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 240 PM Sun...Boating conditions beginning to deteriorate
as compact low pressure takes shape south of Cape Lookout this
afternoon. Regional observations show healthy easterly winds on
the northern periphery of this low with gusts already up to
25-30 kt at times. Seas are currently 2-4 feed area wide.

Low is expected to develop further overnight and lift northward
through Monday, exiting our waters Monday evening. Eastern SCA
conditions likely through tonight on the northern side of the
low, and may see some hyper-localized areas of low-end Gales in
this flow, likely associated with convection. Due to the
isolated nature of this, opted not to put up Gales this evening.
More widespread SCA expected starting Monday afternoon and
extending into mid-week as northwesterly winds increase behind
the low. For this, added inland sounds and the Neuse to the SCA
suite with an expansion likely needed for Albemarle Sound and
Alligator River starting late Mon evening.

Seas build through the period with the increase in winds,
peaking at 5-8 feet north of Cape Hatteras on Monday and 4-7
feet elsewhere.

LONG TERM /Monday night into Friday/...
As of 0300 Sunday...Seas further build Monday as deepening
coastal low works NEward up the NC coast bringing widespread
shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Winds become more
NWerly once low pressure center gets NE of area waters with
winds and seas remaining elevated. High pressure then begins to
build in from the west Tue pushing aforementioned low further
out to sea resulting in winds and seas briefly laying down. SFC
high drifts offshore Wed turning winds SWerly ahead of a dry
cold front that will cross area waters late WED night/early
Thursday morning representing the next chance for SCA
conditions. High pressure remaining N of the area drifts towards
DelMarVA late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ135-137-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB