181
FXUS62 KMLB 220700
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across
  east central Florida through this weekend and into next week.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes,
  strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy
  downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak
  heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria.
  Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to
  practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today-Tonight...Deep mid-level troughing remains in place across
the eastern US today, with a shortwave positioned across north
Florida being absorbed into the broader pattern. At the surface,
the Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of east central Florida
as a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US
drifts farther south towards Florida. Locally, light southwest
winds are forecast through this morning, with winds becoming more
southeasterly along the coast this afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze develops and attempts to push inland. The sea breeze will
struggle due to prevailing southwest winds aloft. A plume of
moisture will generally remain in place locally, but Saharan dust
will work through the mid and upper levels, with PWATs trending
slightly lower in the 1.8-2.0" range. There is still a 30-40%
chance of showers and storms today despite the drier air being a
limiting factor to development, with energy aloft and the sea
breezes potentially providing enough support. Coverage is favored
to increase after 2 PM, with activity pushing towards the coast
thanks to the aforementioned southwest steering flow. Adequate
daytime heating will increase instability, drier air aloft will
support stronger downdrafts (DCAPE 1000 J/kg+), and cooler 500mb
temperatures (-7C) will increase the potential for hail. This
means the main hazards for today with convective development will
include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph (with
a low chance for severe wind gusts), small hail, and heavy
downpours with rainfall accumulations of 1-3" possible. The best
chances for showers and storms remain focused along the coast.
Activity will push offshore and across the local Atlantic waters
late this evening into the overnight hours, with mostly dry
conditions across the peninsula.

Another day of high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s
across east central Florida, with peak heat indices remaining
just below advisory criteria in the 102F to 107F range. Adequate
hydration and breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building
will be important for those spending extended periods of time
outdoors and as always, children and pets should never be left
alone in vehicles for any period of time. Temperatures overnight
will remain near-normal in the mid-70s.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough begins to weaken towards the
end of this weekend and into Monday, with the potential for a
couple additional shortwaves moving towards the Florida peninsula.
The pattern will remain fairly consistent into Sunday, with the
surface boundary remaining draped across the southeastern US.
However, the weakening of the trough will result in the surface
boundary shifting northward by Monday, with the Atlantic ridge
axis anticipated to also begin lifting north back towards the
Florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds persist on Sunday, shifting
more southerly on Monday. The typical diurnal summertime pattern
persists with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible
across east central Florida as the sea breezes develop, though
drier air aloft may act to limit convective development,
especially on Monday. Lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph,
small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible on Sunday, with
lower confidence in the hail potential on Monday as mid-level
temperatures trend a degree or two warmer. Activity timing will
favor the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with showers
and storms diminishing into the overnight hours. Isolated
development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible
overnight, with dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures
will remain near-normal through the remainder of this weekend and
into Monday, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Peak heat indices will continue to range from 102F to 107F.

Tuesday-Friday...Weak mid-level troughing will remain in place
across the eastern US into next week, with a series of shortwaves
traveling around the main trough and digging southward into
Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to
establish itself across the Florida peninsula, with the return of
predominantly southerly flow advecting moisture towards the
peninsula. The energy aloft from the passing shortwaves coupled
with the daily afternoon sea breeze development will result in a
return of near-normal shower and storm chances across east central
Florida, with PoPs ranging between 30-40% on Tuesday and 40-70%
Wednesday onward. All of the typical summertime storm hazards will
be possible, including lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy
downpours. Following the usual diurnal trend, activity is
anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours
each day, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Outside of shower
and storm chances, temperatures across east central Florida will
remain right around normal values through next week. Humidity will
continue to push peak heat indices well above 100F, though most
guidance suggest values remaining below advisory criteria. This
will continue to be closely monitored. Regardless, residents and
visitors should plan to practice heat safety to avoid developing
heat-related illness.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local waters. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the
local waters this weekend, keeping winds generally out of the
southwest. By Monday, the axis lifts northward and will remain
draped across the waters, resulting in winds shifting to out of
the south. The development of the east coast sea breeze each
afternoon will cause winds to become more southeasterly,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are anticipated to remain
between 1 to 3 feet, highest across the offshore waters.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
the local waters through the afternoon and evening hours as
activity from the peninsula pushes offshore. Storms will be
capable of producing frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes,
wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, small hail, heavy downpours, and
locally higher seas. While conditions are forecast to trend drier
through the overnight hours, some isolated development across the
Gulf Stream waters cannot be fully ruled out each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Continued quiet with predominant VFR through midday. Light SSW
winds up to 7 KT, becoming SE at coastal terminals this afternoon.
Expecting 30-40% storm coverage today, with potentially a later
start. With that in mind, have introduced PROB30s at many
terminals centered between 21Z and 01Z depending on the airfield.
For MCO, 22Z to 01Z appears to hold the highest chance for
convection. With drier air aloft, intense downdrafts will be a
concern. Stronger storms will once again carry a risk of gusts
35+ kt and brief LIFR/IFR restrictions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  92  75 /  40  20  30  10
MCO  95  76  93  76 /  30  20  40  10
MLB  94  76  93  76 /  40  30  40  10
VRB  93  75  93  75 /  40  20  30  10
LEE  93  75  91  75 /  30  10  40  10
SFB  94  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  10
ORL  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  40  10
FPR  92  75  93  75 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Heil