874
FXUS62 KMLB 151740
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible today, with
  greatest chances focused near and north of the I-4 corridor.

- Persistent high pressure and drier air will help limit rain
  chances heading into the work week, with increasing rain chances
  possible once again late this week into next weekend.

- Temperatures remain near to above normal, with widespread
  Moderate HeatRisk. The potential for Major HeatRisk exists later
  next week, especially around Greater Orlando.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today-Tonight... Little change in the weather pattern across east
central Florida today, with the ridge axis remaining extended across
the area coupled with a mid-level ridge situated across Florida.
Light southerly flow will also persist at the surface, becoming a
bit more southeasterly this afternoon along the coast as the east
coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. CAM guidance is
indicating that the sea breeze will attempt to take advantage of the
1.7-1.9 inch PWATs present across the area, with increasing shower
and storm coverage anticipated heading into the afternoon hours.
However, the ridge aloft combined with drier air in the mid-levels
will act to try and suppress activity, similar to the last few days.
While not everywhere across east central Florida will see shower and
storm activity, the highest chances for rain and storms continues to
be focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. This is where the sea
breeze collision is anticipated to occur and is also where the
greatest moisture resides across east central Florida based on model
guidance.

Storm activity this afternoon is anticipated to remain sub-severe.
Drier air in the mid-levels may help enhance winds, especially with
800-1000 J/kg of DCAPE present across much of the area, but warmer
500 mb temperatures (approximately -6C) and poor mid-level lapse
rates along with the aforementioned mid-level ridge will act to
limit convective activity. Any storms that do develop may be capable
of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph,
and heavy downpours. Weak steering flow may lead to slow storm
motion, which could allow for some areas to see between 1 to 3
inches of rainfall in a short period of time. As a result, minor,
localized flooding in low-lying areas with poor drainage may be
possible.

Outside of shower and storm activity, hot and humid conditions are
forecast to persist across east central Florida. While highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s are near normal for this time of year, these
temperatures will combine with humidity to produce peak heat indices
in the 100 to 103 range across much of east central Florida.
Additionally, there is a moderate HeatRisk across most of the area,
meaning that heat stress is a concern for those spending extended
periods of time outdoors, especially for groups typically sensitive
to heat. Adequate hydration and taking frequent breaks in the shade
or an air conditioned building will help to mitigate heat stress.
Lows fall into the low to mid 70s overnight, with muggy conditions
persisting through the overnight hours.

It is also worth noting that there is a moderate risk of rip
currents at all local east central Florida beaches today. If heading
to the beach, be sure to always swim near a lifeguard, heed the
advice of local beach safety officials and posted flags, and never
enter the ocean alone.

Monday-Saturday...Heading into the work week, there is minimal
change to the weather pattern. The mid-level ridge is anticipated to
stay over Florida, with the surface ridge axis remaining draped
across central Florida. Some drier air may work its way towards east
central Florida from the southeast, helping to limit shower and
storm chances across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee.
Greater moisture across northern portions of the forecast area
combined with the daily sea breeze collision will allow for a 40 to
50 percent chance for showers and storms each afternoon, though
activity will likely remain rather scattered. Late week, some
guidance is hinting at the approach of a weakening frontal boundary,
which could lead to increasing moisture and therefore, increasing
rain and storm chances across all of east central Florida heading
into the weekend.

With the mid-level ridge remaining in place across the peninsula,
temperatures are anticipated to warm through the work week. Highs
reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices in the 100 to 105
range. A moderate to major HeatRisk is forecast across east central
Florida each afternoon. Overnight temperatures remain fairly
consistent in the low to mid 70s through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place over the
next several days across the local Atlantic waters, with south to
southeast winds prevailing each day. Winds pick up each afternoon
behind the development of the east coast sea breeze, but generally
remain between 10 to 15 knots, becoming lighter and even variable at
times into the overnight hours. Generally favorable boating
conditions are anticipated through the period, with seas remaining
between 2 to 3 feet. While weather conditions are expected to remain
mostly dry across the local waters, isolated to scattered showers
and storms cannot be fully ruled out (20 to 40 percent chance
through the period).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Winds have shifted east-southeast at most coastal terminals as
the sea breeze begins to move inland. South winds are forecast
around 5-10 kts at interior TAF sites ahead of the sea breeze.
Winds become breezy at times along the Treasure Coast with peak
gusts around 20 kts this afternoon. VCSH/VCTS is included from
TIX/ISM northward with convection dominantly driven by the sea
breeze and boundary collisions. TSRA TEMPO at DAB from 18Z/21Z.
Otherwise, primary TSRA impacts are forecast late in the day with
TEMPOs at MCO/SFB/ISM/LEE from 21Z/24Z. VFR outside of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  92 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  75  93  75  94 /  30  60  30  40
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  10  40  10  30
VRB  74  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  20
LEE  75  91  76  94 /  30  60  30  40
SFB  75  93  75  95 /  30  60  20  40
ORL  76  93  76  94 /  30  60  30  40
FPR  72  89  73  90 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law