837
FXUS64 KMOB 051124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to
   5-6 feet through tonight. High surf combined with high tide
   will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the
   coast this afternoon.

 - Small craft conditions continue through today then taper off
   and end this evening.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the
   western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible,
   which could lead to more flooding concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment.
/29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

One last dry and comfortable night is underway as high
pressure lingers over the Appalachians, allowing for a cold air
damming pattern to continue across the southeast US. This high will
begin to move into the western Atlantic later today, resulting in
winds shifting from easterly to southeasterly over the course of the
day. We continue to anticipate a rather abrupt pattern change to
occur today as a non-tropical surface trough/low attempts to form
along a stationary front south of Louisiana. As this feature lifts
northward, deep moisture will also surge back to the north, likely
entering our coastal Alabama and southeast Mississippi counties by
the late afternoon/evening hours. Moisture may have a tougher time
advecting into the eastern half of the local area due to a building
upper ridge over Florida. This may help to set up a rather
noticeable moisture gradient across the local area through the
weekend, where multiple rounds of showers and storms impact our
western zones, whereas coverage is more isolated to scattered over
our eastern zones. Not anticipating any severe weather due to
shear values remaining very low. That being said, storms that do
develop over our western zones would likely be slow-moving, and
with very high PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient
rainfall producers. NBM 95th percentiles are suggesting localized
rainfall amounts up to 4-6 inches on Saturday for areas west of
the Tombigbee River. If any boundaries are able to set up and
storms are able to train over the same locations, then these
values may become realized and a localized flash flooding threat
could materialize, especially considering the copious amounts of
rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks.

Another concern we have through Saturday is with regards to beach
conditions. A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect through
Saturday night as strong easterly winds turn a bit more
southeasterly. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect through
tonight for large, breaking waves of 5-6 feet. Lastly, although
coastal flooding is not anticipated, stronger winds and high surf,
combined with high tide, may promote overwash into some of our
typical trouble spots, such as Fort Pickens, Dauphin Island, and
northern portions of Mobile Bay. This could result in some localized
minor inundation later this afternoon. Winds should start to weaken
by Sunday, with beach conditions slowly improving as we get into
early next week.

Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next
week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain
chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday, however, it also
will likely bring warmer temperatures. Highs by next week should top
out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices may reach the 100
degree mark by Tuesday and into midweek. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Isolated to scattered convection is possible across much of
southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama through much
of the period. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger
storms, with VFR conditions otherwise expected to prevail. A
southeasterly flow at 10-15 knots develops today, then diminishes
to around 5 knots or less tonight. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Moderate to strong southeasterly winds diminish to a light to
moderate flow Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory continues for
nearly the entire marine area through today, then tapers off and
ends this evening. A light to moderate southeasterly flow follows
for Saturday through Monday, then becomes easterly to
southeasterly on Tuesday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  72  83  73 /  40  30  80  30
Pensacola   85  75  86  76 /  20  10  40  10
Destin      85  73  86  75 /  10   0  20   0
Evergreen   89  64  89  70 /   0   0  20   0
Waynesboro  87  68  83  71 /  20  10  80  30
Camden      88  65  89  70 /   0   0  40  10
Crestview   89  64  89  69 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>634-
     655-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ650-670.

&&

$$