677
FXUS64 KMOB 072327
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches becoming Moderate
   Monday.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move
   through the area today. Some of these storms may produce
   periods of moderate to heavy rain, leading to localized flash
   flooding.

 - Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An upper ridge continues to push west over the northern Gulf
coast, shifting convection that has formed over southeastern
Mississippi/southwestern Alabama northward. Am expecting this
convection to move north of the forecast area by mid evening.
Also, we continue to monitor area beach reports, with reports of
Red Flags this morning prompting an extension of an RP.S this
morning.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows high pressure off the southeast
coast, with ridging building back into our easternmost counties. To
our west, a trough digging into the Southern Plains was producing
areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region.
The forecast area will remain on the edge of these two features,
with winds from the south-southwest. This will keep a steady stream
of moisture filtering into the area. Combined with weaknesses
lifting northeastward, will keep scattered storms across the area,
with the coverage of storms increasing this afternoon.

As far as impacts go, the higher chances and amounts of rain are
expected to remain north of US-85, where very little rain fell
yesterday. These areas have seen little in the way of rainfall the
last week or so, and soils have dried enough that our forecast
rainfall totals should remain well below flash flood guidance in our
northern counties. Areas south of US-84 experienced more rainfall
yesterday but are expected to get less today. Overall, it looks like
our highest rainfall totals will fall in areas where the ground can
handle it without much runoff. That said, given the moist airmass in
place, if storms are able to produce very heavy rainfall and/or move
over the same locations, we may have some flooding concerns later in
the day. It does not appear to be a likely scenario; however, it is
one we are monitoring given May`s rainfall totals across the area.

Showers and storms will diminish overnight, as the aforementioned
trough to our west swings into the Ohio and TN Valleys. Meanwhile,
ridging will build northward and linger through the workweek. The
trough will stall to our north and this may allow for isolated
storms to sneak into our northernmost counties; but no impacts are
expected with these. Otherwise, we expect the upper ridging to
provide enough subsidence to keep low rain chances through the
remainder of the period. Unfortunately, that also means heat build
into the region. Highs will climb into the 90s by Tuesday, with
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Am expecting the current VFR conditions across the forecast area
to continue into the overnight hours. Local drops to MVFR levels
are possible along and north of Highway 84 early this evening as
showers and thunderstorms north of the Highway continue to move
north. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible
Monday afternoon, bringing local drops in conditions, but are
expected to be easily navigated around.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A light to moderate south to southeast flow today becomes
southeasterly on Monday. A brief period of easterly flow on
Tuesday returns to south to southeast by the middle of next week.
/73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  87  71  90 /  10  10   0   0
Pensacola   75  87  75  90 /  10  10   0   0
Destin      75  87  75  89 /   0  10   0   0
Evergreen   70  89  71  91 /  30  10  10  10
Waynesboro  72  86  70  91 /  40  20  20   0
Camden      70  85  71  89 /  40  10  20  10
Crestview   70  91  72  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$