620
FXUS64 KMOB 220522
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty
   winds being the main threat.

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 98-104
   degree range through Wednesday.

 - A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week
   into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Through Thursday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast
has opened into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, shifts east
as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast.
A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and
in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast,
shifts a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the
region. The push initially is greater west of the Mississippi River,
shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping
precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area southward.
Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 level to the 1.4"-1.6" by
Wednesday night and 1"-1.3" by Thursday night. In combination with
the building upper ridge, isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday, with a dry Wednesday and Thursday. As with this
time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg)
and DCapes (700-A light, diurnally driven flow is expected through mid week.
A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday
will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the
week into the weekend.
/161000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe
pulse type storms to be possible Tuesday. The surface low off the
East Coast moves north along the East Coast though the end of the
week as the upper low over the Northeast swirls south over the
East Coast, bringing a cooler airmass (dare I say a cool front) to
go with the drier air that has moved over the Southeast.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through mid week, with
high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range Tuesday and
Wednesday. The aforementioned cooler air begins to move southeast
across the forecast area, with high temperatures Thursday ranging
from the upper 80s over the northeastern half of the forecast area
to low 90s southwest and near the coast. Heat indices in the 98 to
104 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday drop into the 90-99 degree
range Thursday as the cooler air combines with the drop in moisture
levels. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low to mid 70s
Tuesday night to mid 60s to around 70 Thursday night.

Friday through Monday, the upper low over the East Coast swirls
around for another day or two before organizing into a deep upper
low over the Mid Atlantic coast and moving off. This shifts the
upper high over the Southern Plains south over old Mexico. The drop
in temperatures closer to seasonal norms remains through the
weekend, with coolest temperatures being over the
northeastern/eastern half of the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally
light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through mid
week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf
coast the end of the week into the coming week, bringing a moderate
to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Showers and storms with potentially MVFR conditions will mainly
affect coastal Alabama from 06-07Z, with patchy fog possible mainly
over interior areas later on into the night. VFR conditions are
otherwise anticipated, except may see some isolated convective
development with MVFR conditions from Tuesday afternoon into the
evening. Winds become calm or light and variable overnight, then a
predominately northeasterly flow around 5 knots develops on Tuesday,
with a switch to a southerly direction anticipated near the
immediate coast in the afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A light, diurnally driven flow is expected through mid week.
A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday
will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the
week into the weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  72  93  72 /  20  10   0   0
Pensacola   91  75  92  75 /  10  10  10   0
Destin      90  76  92  75 /  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   93  69  93  68 /  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  94  70  93  67 /  10  10  10   0
Camden      93  70  92  69 /  20  10   0   0
Crestview   92  70  93  71 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$