480
FXUS66 KMTR 270740
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1240 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early
  in the week

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with increasing Moderate HeatRisk
  for interior locations heading into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges
  this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased
  risk for sneaker waves and rip currents thru mid-week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery tonight continues to indicate marine stratus
struggling to make a push inland. The SFO-SAC pressure gradient is
around +4 which should result in an inland push by early morning,
and clearing by late morning, possibly early afternoon for the
terminals closer to the coast. Temperatures today are generally
right around normal for this time of year, warmer than normal at
higher elevations (~1500ft and higher). Breezy onshore flow
especially into the gaps and valleys across our area will continue
to dry fuels (see fire weather discussion for more details) and lead
to elevated fire weather concerns, especially at higher elevations
that will not see good RH recovery overnight. The most dangerous
portion of the forecast both today and through the remainder of the
week is the S-SW swell producing sneaker waves and riptides. One
count had over 25 water rescues across our Pacific coastline Sunday,
and likely more that didn`t get reported to the media. Be extra
careful and never turn your back on the water.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Warmer temperatures are on the way, especially by the end of the
week into next weekend with increasing odds of more widespread
Moderate HeatRisk and potential heat advisories. However, there`s
still plenty uncertainty in the magnitude of the increasing heat.
Cluster analysis maintains some troughing in our vicinity until late
next weekend into the first week of August. Deterministic guidance
struggled with Fausto this far out and expect that to continue with
Genevieve. Depending how far north Genevieve tracks will determine
how far north the persistent troughing over the EPAC gets nudged
north and allows more impactful H50 height rises and thickness
increases. The forecast remains dry throughout with the exception of
possible coastal drizzle associated with the marine layer. Fire
weather concerns will continue to increase through the extended
forecast as fuels continue to dry and cure. Avoid any activities
that could lead to a spark and ignition, fires that do start are
likely to spread quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Currently VFR (MVFR at HAF) with stratus off the coast. Pessimistic
persistence forecast on tap with very little change in the pattern,
but a stratus bank off the coast. High confidence in IFR conditions
at coastal terminals with a ceiling and reduced visibility. Moderate
confidence on IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings penetrating inland to impact
bayshore and interior terminals. Reasonable best case scenario is
winds remain westerly through the Delta and aren`t able to spread
stratus north/south into terminals. Widespread VFR is expected by
tomorrow afternoon; however, a strong onshore gradient may allow
stratus to linger. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty westerly flow. Moderate
confidence on a low-end MVFR ceiling returning tonight with a late
morning clearing time. Reasonable worst case scenario is a later
clearing time (early afternoon) with the help of a strong onshore
gradient. Similar to the last couple of days, moderate probabilities
(45%) for reaching 35 knot gusts in the afternoon/evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High (80%) confidence on IFR
ceilings returning tonight. Visibility will likely be reduced at
MRY. Conditions will begin to improve by 16Z with VFR expected by
the afternoon. Early onset of IFR/low-end MVFR stratus is possible
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes across the inner and outer
waters and the afternoon sea breeze will result in hazardous
conditions for small craft. Frequent gale force gusts are
expected along the coastal jet region of Big Sur with isolated
gale force gusts along the coastal jet region of Point Reyes.
Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, building to become
rough in the outer waters Wednesday. Long period southerly swell
from distant tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will
continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Increased breezes, while onshore, when combined with critically
dry afternoon RH through the week will translate to an elevated
fire weather threat. This threat will persist through mid-week and
potentially into the latter half of the week and into the
weekend. The most likely region for starts and fire spread will be
across the interior Central Coast where Energy Release Components
(ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile. While
morning RH recovery will moderate some through the week, the
shallow marine layer will equate to generally poor overnight
recovery for elevations at or above 2,000 feet through Wednesday
morning. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas,
highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz
Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid
decrease in RH through the pre-danw hours) may also transpire
which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior
may not diminish. Individuals across the area are advised to
avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to
exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns,
especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific will continue to
generate 18-20 second (long-period) southwesterly swell which has
reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central
Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the
primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet
along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points
(like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach).
This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase
suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action.
In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger
sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times
between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful
and can catch beachgoers by surprise and can result in people and
pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are
strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore.
Check conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard if
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn
your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at
the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions
are anticipated to persist through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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