948
FXUS63 KOAX 151712
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance (15-35%) of light showers continues into Wednesday.
  An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Areas of fog tonight,
  especially in northeast Nebraska.

- Temperatures quickly warm back up on Wednesday and Thursday,
  with afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s. Breezy to windy
  conditions on Thursday.

- A couple fronts move through the area on Friday and Saturday,
  with a 20-45% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
  Temperatures trend cooler, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to feature a positively-
tilted trough with a base over the Great Basin while a mid/upper jet
streak helps prop up ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS. A
recent surface analysis highlights a warm front extending eastward
from a northeastern CO low through southern Nebraska/Iowa.
As you go north of this warm front, low stratus and reduced
visibilities fill in quickly with areas of dense fog nosing into
northeast Nebraska from the central portion of the state, while
showers and a stray rumble of thunder exit to the east.
Throughout the morning, expect the low clouds to the north of
the warm front to lift northward along with the front itself,
leaving us with some peeks of sunshine this afternoon. Along and
north of the warm front, light rain and drizzle chances will
continue through much of the morning, in addition to shower
chances just south of the front as a mid-level shortwave passes
through. Similar to yesterday, don`t expect to see a ton on
radar but do expect a much warmer day as highs hit the upper 70s
to low 80s across the forecast area as southerly winds develop.

Late this evening into the overnight hours, continued warm air
advection with the strong mass response ahead of a strengthening
leeside low will work with decreasing mid/upper heights to
force a few more elevated but light showers primarily across
Iowa. By sunrise, attention will turn towards a prefrontal
convergence boundary/trough to the west with a cold front to
directly to its west for shower and storm development. Only the
prefrontal trough will reach the far western edges of the
forecast area during the day Thursday, with elevated showers
along it before shower activity becomes increasingly focused
along it overnight with a few rumbles of thunder in the marginal
MUCAPE.

Friday and Beyond:

By Friday morning, the main core of the mid/upper system to the west
will have ejected northeast into Manitoba/Saskatchewan, with
the base of the wave poised to sweep eastward. Shower and storm
chances will hinge on the timing of the cold frontal passage,
with areas of southeast Nebraska seeing rain and storm chances
during the late afternoon/evening hours. In our neck of the
woods, we will only be seeing CAPE values of less than 1000 J/kg
in a sufficiently sheared environment, making marginal severe
weather not likely but still possible with increasing chances to
the south where lapse rates/moisture are healthier.

Saturday and Sunday will see the 60s return for high temperatures,
with the backside of that system/ribbon of PVA giving one last
goodbye to the the area before continuing its ejection eastward.
Global deterministic models do differ on the speed at which it
departs, with spread only increasing going forward into the
work week. Though there is significant spread by this point,
models are in consensus for another trough to move through from
the west with a quick-hitting ridge ahead of it. The amplitude
and timing of these features will become more clear as we
approach, but after a cool weekend, a bit of a warmup and then
another cooler wave is on tap for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areal coverage of ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms
from south-central NE to the KOMA vicinity has been poorly
handled by the short-term models, leading to uncertainty in how
that convection will evolve this afternoon. For now, have
included -SHRA at KOMA and KLNK for the next couple of hours.
Stubborn LIFR ceilings at KOFK are expected to lift within
the next hour, with prevailing VFR conditions thereafter.
South-southeast surface winds are forecast to increase to 10-13
kt this afternoon, with higher gusts possible at KOFK and KLNK.
LLWS appears most probable at KOFK overnight. Strong south
winds develop by 15-16z on Thursday at all terminal locations.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead