Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 070855
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
355 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.Today through Saturday Morning:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a robust shortwave
traversing the Northern Plains flanked by a weaker shortwave
moving down the Rocky Mountain Front Range, all combining to
force some spotty rain and sprinkles across eastern Nebraska this
morning. To the north of the current rain activity, skies have
cleared in northeast Nebraska where temperatures are expected to
begin dropping nearly or just below freezing; especially near the
South Dakota border. With it being early in the transition season,
a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning combo is in place for the
forecasted near or just below freezing areas this morning
(primarily from Albion to Onawa and points north). One thing that
could throw a wrench into the minimum temperature forecast would
be the somewhat breezy winds for this time of day, keeping cold
air from efficiently draining with our not-so-strong nocturnal
inversion. Going forward into the morning and afternoon, rain
chances will exit to the south, and a cool fall day will settle in
as highs work to reach the mid-to-upper 50s.

By tonight, the combination of very low wind speeds, clear skies,
and a stronger nighttime inversion (at least according to the RAP
and similar CAM forecast soundings) will all work towards an even
colder night with temperatures at or below freezing area-wide. A
Freeze Warning is in place for the entire area and may end up
being the last frost/freeze headline for the year.

.Saturday through Monday:

Saturday afternoon through Monday is expected to hold a warming
trend that pulls us up from the 50s Friday to highs in the low-to-
upper 70s Monday. We`ll still be in northwesterly flow in the
mid/upper levels, but the dominant trough over the eastern third of
the CONUS is forecast to slowly push eastward. Very little moisture
will be able to make it to the area as well with a center of high
surface pressure will keep low-level winds light during this period,
keeping this period dry. Even though we`d love to have more rain in
the area, having some really nice days to be outside will serve as
some sort of consolation as drought continues.

.Tuesday through Thursday:

The warming trend is expected to peak on Tuesday as highs reach into
the upper 70s and low 80s as increased southerly flow ramps up ahead
of a low-amplitude trough. Along with the increased southerly flow
will come increased moisture transport and some rain chances across
the far southeastern portions of Nebraska and into southwest Iowa.
We`ll be on the far northwest end of the main area of rain and
embedded storms so we`ll likely miss out on any meaningful rain, but
a slower and deeper system could bring increases in terms of time
and duration. As of right now, we`re just getting clipped by chances
Tuesday and Wednesday with a lot of time between now and then for
things to change and forecast solutions to come together. By
Wednesday, that trough that started the rain chances will be joined
by a much deeper punch in the mid/upper levels that dives out
southeast out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Considerable differences are
noted by this point in the forecast solutions but what is sure is
that we`ll see a notable cooldown by Thursday as the potentially
robust through could be east of the area, ushering in a cooler
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

VFR conditions through the period. Spotty showers moving through
the KOFK vicinity should be east of that location by TAF issuance.
And then could see spotty showers at KLNK 07-09z. There is a
cloud deck around 9-10000 feet, and that will scatter out at KOFK
by about 10-13z, but not aviation significant so no additional
TAF FM lines were included since winds remain less than 12 knots.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-030>034.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...DeWald


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