Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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374 FXUS63 KOAX 131055 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 455 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms will continue this morning (60-100% chance) before gradually clearing later this afternoon. Rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75" are expected, with the highest totals in western Iowa. - Above average temperatures will continue today through Sunday. - The next chance for precipitation arrives Monday into Tuesday. At this time, the event looks to stay as rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 TODAY... This morning, scattered showers have begun developing across eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa as a surface low associated with a high amplitude mid level trough digs into the central Plains. The aforementioned surface low is expected to push east along the KS/NE border through the first half of the day. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the low will continue to bring gusty (15-25 mph) southeasterly winds to the area this morning. An associated north- south oriented surface front will concurrently push east across the forecast area. Along and ahead of the front, precipitation will become more widespread across eastern NE and western IA as it is aided by the divergence of the left exit region of the upper level jet streak. Moisture transport will peak later this morning with PoPs of 60-100% in place across the area. Modest mid level lapse rates late this morning has brought enough weak, elevated instability for a few rumbles of thunder across the area, though severe weather is not expected. PoPs will decrease late this morning and precipitation will end from west to east through the afternoon/early evening. Expected precipitation totals are in the 0.25 to 0.75" range with the greatest totals expected in western IA. Overnight lows in the 40s should keep all precipitation as rain. Clouds will likely wait until sunset before breaking up behind the precipitation departure, though highs are still expected in the 50s. Northwesterly winds will help to usher in a cooler air mass overnight, with overnight lows hovering around freezing. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Broad upper level riding will quickly build back into the region following the departure of Wednesday`s system. As a result, pleasant conditions will be in place as highs gradually rise from Thursday through Saturday. Thursday highs are expected to reach the low 60s in the much of the area with the mid 60s possible by Saturday. These highs are nearly 10 degrees above the climatological average for mid November. A weak frontal passage Saturday night is expected to bring Sunday highs back into the 50s. MONDAY AND BEYOND... A change in the upper level pattern will come towards the end of the weekend and the start of next week as a closed low ejects out of the Chihuahuan Desert vicinity and into the southern/central Plains. Long range guidance currently displays low agreement on the timing and intensity of this system, bringing low confidence in any potential hazards at this time. While low precipitation chances may reach the area Sunday night (5-20% chance), the better forcing likely won`t arrive until Monday and Tuesday. We currently have PoPs of 30-50% in place for this time frame. Most ensemble members keep precipitation associated with this system as rain as near to slightly above average temperatures continue. Long range guidance suggests that we could see a cooler Canadian air mass moving in by late next week, though I will abstain from any snowfall speculation given the extended time frame. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Rain continues across the area this morning with cigs lowering to MVFR then IFR over the next few hours. We`re looking at an 80% chance of IFR cigs at all the terminals starting between 13-15Z. We`ll see a shift to northwesterly winds behind the cold front moving through later this morning at KOFK and this afternoon at KOMA and KLNK. Showers and MVFR/IFR cigs will be slow to clear the area from west to east, lingering at KOMA until around 23-00Z. Once we clear out expect VFR conditions the rest of the evening through the end of the TAF period with wins out of the northwest around 10-15 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...McCoy