Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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341
FXUS63 KOAX 252326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

At 3 PM, the low cloud cover hung tough today, with areas near
the Missouri River still socked in this afternoon. There were
signs of clearing though, with drier air and boundary layer mixing
leading to clearing west of a line from Norfolk to Lincoln. Given
all the cloud cover, temperatures didn`t make much headway today
and many locations were still in the 30s.

Tonight & Thanksgiving

Heading into tonight, we can expect additional clearing, as
a drier airmass filters in from the west. Radiational cooling may
pair with leftover moisture to produce some patchy fog overnight,
particularly over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Expect
your lows overnight to fall into the upper 20s by 6 AM.

Thanksgiving will see a frontal passage in the morning, and a
healthy upper level trough over the Northern Plains. At
a local level, this will mean northwest winds (6 to 12 mph), and
noticeably increased sunshine. Though if you go outside with the
kids in the afternoon, you may see some cirrus drifting by. Added
sunshine in the afternoon will contribute to temperatures
gains of plus ten degrees or so compared to today`s highs. Thus
it should be near 50 degrees in Omaha in the afternoon, with a
very adequate high of 52 degrees forecast in Lincoln. If you`ve
indulged in to much feathery fowl, this should be nice enough for
a late afternoon stroll. Or you could just give it a look and
chill inside.

Friday & Saturday

Surface high pressure will dominate our weather Friday and
Saturday, leading to uneventful weather both days. Winds will
pickup some Saturday afternoon as high pressure shifts east, but
with highs in the mid 50s, it should still be the best day for
outdoor activities this weekend.

Early Next Week

Another upper level trough should push into the Northern Plains by
Sunday, sending a cold front surging south through the Plains.
Fortunately the source region of the front and airmass behind it
isn`t that cold, so temperatures won`t fall too far. Looks like
highs in the 40s Sunday, then bottoming out in the 30s Monday,
before a return to the 40s Tuesday. This system should be starved
for moisture, so no precipitation is expected.

The Really Far Out

The long range ensemble forecasts generally favor above average
temperatures along the Canadian border, and drier than average
weather over most of the U.S. This said, model guidance is a real
kaleidoscope of cut off lows by the middle of next week, suggesting
very high uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

Clouds will decrease at KOMA this evening. With surface ridge axis
shifting east, winds will turn to the south. Winds aloft will
increase to near 35 or 40 knots with some low level wind shear.
A cold front should push through tomorrow, with surface winds
shifting to northwest or north.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Albright
AVIATION...Miller



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