Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 010928
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
328 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend with well-above-normal high temperatures
  through the weekend and high to very high fire danger.

- Possible record temperatures and fire weather concerns on Sunday
  with small precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday.

- Continued above-normal temperatures next week cooling down
  closer to normal by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

Clouds have moved into far southeastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa this morning associated with a low pressure system that is
passing to our south. There might even be a few sprinkles or a
light shower down near Falls City. Expect cloud cover to expand
northward through the morning hours which will help limit
daytime heating until skies clear out this afternoon. A
tightened pressure gradient north of the shortwave to our south
and a surface low over Manitoba will continue to bring gusty
southerly winds through the morning hours, but as the system to
our south exits to the east expect winds to relax this
afternoon. We may see an hour or two of near-critical fire
conditions this afternoon as winds are still fairly strong out
of the south and temperatures are heating up. The greatest
concern will be for northeast Nebraska around Boone, Antelope,
and Knox counties, which will be drying out first and getting
the warmest, with high temperatures in this area in the low 70s.
Elsewhere across our area, temperatures are only expected to
get up into the low-to-mid 60s.

Saturday - Sunday:

The next system, a deeper upper-level trough starts it`s
approach on Saturday bringing a broad area of low pressure down
onto the lee-side of the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, along the
Missouri River Valley we see a dry-line develop Friday night
into early Saturday, with drier air in place across eastern
Nebraska. To our east over Iowa, the warm conveyor belt brings
moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico into the region. Being on the
dry-side of the dryline, we`ll have high to very high fire
danger with the limiting factor being the strength of the
southerly winds. Models have humidity staying just above
critical values, but they are just to our west. We may see a
sharper gradient of moisture with critically dry values creeping
into our area Saturday afternoon, especially if temperatures get
warmer than forecast. As far as temperatures on Friday, went on
the higher end of guidance with the NBM75th percentile, bringing
afternoon highs into the low-to-mid 70s.

Sunday the cold front approaches, making it`s way southeast
across our area Sunday afternoon and evening. Areas that stay
out ahead of the cold front longer during the day could see
temperatures approach 80 degrees Sunday afternoon, mainly around
Falls City and far southwest Iowa. Elsewhere, expect high
temperatures to decrease as you go northwest due to timing of
the cold front. Because of the lack of moisture across our area
out ahead of the cold front, we`re not expecting any
precipitation on Sunday with the passage of the cold front. The
chance for very light precipitation won`t be until Sunday night
into Monday morning as we see moisture increase along the
northern periphery of a secondary surface low developing over
central Kansas. This will help to peel off some of the moisture
to our east and bring it back into eastern Nebraska. There will
be a lot of dry air to overcome, however, so QPF should be very
light if we see anything reach the ground at all (20-30 percent
chance). Temperatures Sunday night into early Monday will be
approaching freezing in northeast Nebraska, which would mean the
precipitation in this area would fall as light snow. Along and
south of I-80, though, temperatures will be more supportive of
light rain.

Monday - Tuesday:

Monday precip chances clear off to the east by midday.
Temperatures will be cooler across much of our area with a
stationary front stalled out across our far southeastern
counties associated with the surface low to our south.
Temperatures will be warmer along and south of this front where
highs will get up into the mid-to-upper 60s while the rest of
our area sees high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. This
stalled surface boundary lingers into Tuesday, finally bringing
northerly flow down across our entire area by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday - Thursday:

With broad troughing across the western CONUS, a very baroclinic
pattern sets up with several chaotic shortwaves that models
aren`t in very good agreement upon for timing or precip chance
details. The good news is we do appear to tap into a moisture
plume starting on Thursday which should help support any
precipitation chances through the end of the week. Temperatures
will remain closer to normal, with highs likely staying down in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

South-southwest winds will continue gusting 20-30 kts overnight,
which should preclude low level wind shear, but winds aloft will
be in the 40 to 45 kt range, so if surface winds end up
weakening, may need to add a mention. Expect continued gusts
around 20 kts at OMA and LNK before winds gradually weaken
through the afternoon. Otherwise, guidance continues to trend
toward a period of MVFR ceilings Friday morning at OMA and LNK,
with latest guidance suggesting a 70+ percent chance. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA


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