651
FXUS63 KOAX 210822
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
322 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20% chance of showers and storms this
  afternoon/early evening in portions of southeast Nebraska. The
  strongest storms could contain gusty winds and small hail, but
  severe weather is not expected.

- More shower and storm chances (40-70%) Friday through the
  holiday weekend. Severe weather chances currently look low
  (generally 5% or less), but something to keep an eye on if you
  have outdoor plans.

- Seasonably cool temperatures continue through early next week
  with a warmup favored by late next week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Fairly quiet across the region early this morning though radar did
show some light showers/sprinkles pushing across far northeast
NE/west-central IA as some weak shortwave energy was rounding a
cutoff low still spinning over the Dakotas. Can`t completely rule
out a few additional showers along the NE/SD border today with the
low remaining in place, but most guidance keeps these particular
showers to our north. However, farther south, a narrow ribbon of
shortwave energy and jet streak are expected to push in by this
afternoon with steepening mid level lapse rates helping to yield a
few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE. As the forcing arrives expect some
shower and storm development from the NE panhandle through portions
of southeast NE. The aforementioned lapse rates along with deep
inverted V soundings should yield at least some potential for
small hail and perhaps a few gusts of 40-50 mph this afternoon
into early evening, but severe weather is not expected at this
time. Otherwise expect another breezy day with northwest winds
gusting 20 to 30 mph and highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s.

Surface high pressure looks to build in from the northwest tonight
into Thursday and should lead to a pretty quiet and pleasant day
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The quiet weather looks short-lived, however, as guidance is in good
agreement that an upper level trough will push into the western
CONUS Friday and eventually through our area Sunday/Monday. Ahead of
that trough, we`ll see some bits of shortwave energy slide through
the area and give us shower and storm chances Friday and Saturday
(40-70% both days). Machine learning severe weather guidance
continues to hint at at least small chances (5%) for severe weather
at times. The first would likely come late Friday night into early
Saturday with guidance suggesting at least some modest elevated
instability works into portions of southeast NE and low level
moisture transport ramps up and points into the area. There would be
plenty of deep layer shear to work with to keep storms organized and
yield what would mainly be a hail threat. Storms look like they
could continue into at least Saturday and Sunday and possibly even
Monday, depending on how quickly the main trough moves through.
There does remain some spread on timing of the various waves, so
overall confidence in a particular time being wet/dry is somewhat
low. In other words, not ready to call any particular day of the
holiday weekend a complete washout, but there will almost certainly
be showers and storms around at times that you`ll have to deal with
if you have outdoor plans. Also, there`s still plenty of small scale
details to work out that will have impacts on our severe weather
threat(s), so you`ll definitely want to keep an eye on the forecast.
Finally, along with the rain, it does look like it`ll remain
seasonably cool, with highs mostly in the 60s through Monday.

It looks like we`ll remain under the influence of upper level
troughing through the middle part of next week, so expect shower and
storm chances to continue with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Looking further out, guidance does favor a warmup back into the
upper 70s to mid 80s by the later part of the week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR conditions at the terminals at midnight, but low clouds are
approaching from the northwest which will move into KOFK and
will bounce in and out of KOMA overnight. Winds will remain out
of the northwest through the overnight hours. Expect low cigs to
break up and clear out by 15Z Wednesday with clearing skies.
Northwest winds will start to gust back up to 23kt around 15Z as
well with gusts continuing through the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...McCoy