


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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085 FXUS63 KOAX 121734 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will exit northeast Nebraska this morning, with another round developing after 6 PM for the same areas. - Strong southeasterly winds will gust to 30-40 mph, with the strongest winds across northeast Nebraska before a cold front swings them northwesterly as it moves through the area. - Cooler Monday and Tuesday, warmer Wednesday and Thursday with near-daily rain chances ahead of a cooldown this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Today: Water vapor imagery this morning features a deepening longwave trough moving eastward across the Interior West sandwiching positively-tilted and weakening ridging with a cutoff low spinning over the southeastern Atlantic Coast. Drilling down to the local area, a recent surface analysis places a warm front laid from northwest to southeast from the surface low in western North Dakota through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, working with the falling warm air advection and a mid/upper shortwave to develop scattered shower activity across northeast Nebraska into South Dakota. Due to dry air near the surface, it`s taken a few rounds of elevated showers to help moisten the lower levels enough to get rainfall at the surface, but several of the ASOS/AWOS locations have reported rainfall over the last couple of hours. In addition to the showers, a strong surface pressure gradient has set up and limited cooling from the protective cloud cover has allowed the surface to still remain coupled enough for gusts of 20 to 30 mph to continue this morning, with deeper mixing expected this afternoon that should allow gusts to push above 35 mph. Heading further into the morning and early afternoon hours, expect most of the shower activity to follow the best warm air advection and the shortwave away and to the northeast of the forecast area. Gusts will be the main concern of the afternoon hours, with gusts of 30-35 mph expected for much of the forecast area while northeast Nebraska could see gusts out of the south-southeast to 40 mph. Well above normal warmth is set to push highs into the mid 80s, while the weaker moisture return from the weaker flow across the Southern Plains and deep mixing will let relative humidity values bottom out in the 35-45% range, which won`t be quite low enough to cause major fire danger concerns with the currently forecast winds. What could complicate those hoping to burn today would be the approaching cold front, that will shift winds northwesterly as it sweeps through the area beginning at 4 PM. In addition to the wind shift, enough forcing for ascent along and just behind the front will be present that could help kick off isolated-to-scattered showers and a stray rumble of thunder from 6 PM to midnight that could tap into the couple hundred joules of MUCAPE rooted at around 700 mb. Effective shear with these showers and storms won`t be strong enough to help facilitate any severe risk with the meager instability, though a gust of wind or two could occur as an rainfall evaporates into the well mixed PBL. Monday and Beyond: With the cold front passing through the area, we`ll have a crisp morning Monday as temperatures bottom out in the 40s and 50s that will only recover into the 60s area-wide. Expect a mostly dry afternoon before scattered showers begin wafting in from the southwest as a mid/upper shortwave and warm air advection at 850 mb move into the area during the evening hours. Once again, we`ll have little to work with in terms of ingredients for deep moist convection, so expect and absence of thunder with most of the area struggling to see 0.1" of rainfall. Another dip in terms of high temperatures is expected Tuesday into the upper 50s and 60s, with Omaha forecast to hit 63 degrees (about 4 degrees below normal). Additional afternoon/evening shower chances are currently forecast as another bit of shortwave moves through in continued 850 mb warm air advection, that generally slides north of the area as troughing to the west deepens and ridging over the Central Plains builds. A brief warming trend is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, pushing highs into the lower 70s, then upper 70s before rain chances arrive Friday along with another cold front to help us cool down as the aforementioned trough to the west ejects to the northeast. Rain chances should diminish through Saturday and Sunday with a strong jet dipping along and just south of the area to bring some of our coolest temperatures to the area this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. Skies are clearing out in the east with additional cloud cover moving in from the west with a cold front. The front will move into the vicinity of the terminals later this afternoon/evening, bringing a wind shift and the possibility of a few showers and rumbles of thunder. Confidence in timing is low at this time, so shower/storm mentions have been omitted from prevailing conditions. Once the front moves through, expect winds out of the north through the remainder of the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...ANW