Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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374
FXUS63 KOAX 131055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
455 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms
  will continue this morning (60-100% chance) before gradually
  clearing later this afternoon. Rainfall totals of 0.25 to
  0.75" are expected, with the highest totals in western Iowa.

- Above average temperatures will continue today through Sunday.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives Monday into Tuesday.
  At this time, the event looks to stay as rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

TODAY...

This morning, scattered showers have begun developing across eastern
Nebraska and west-central Iowa as a surface low associated with
a high amplitude mid level trough digs into the central Plains.
The aforementioned surface low is expected to push east along
the KS/NE border through the first half of the day. A tight
pressure gradient ahead of the low will continue to bring gusty
(15-25 mph) southeasterly winds to the area this morning. An
associated north- south oriented surface front will
concurrently push east across the forecast area. Along and ahead
of the front, precipitation will become more widespread across
eastern NE and western IA as it is aided by the divergence of
the left exit region of the upper level jet streak. Moisture
transport will peak later this morning with PoPs of 60-100% in
place across the area. Modest mid level lapse rates late this
morning has brought enough weak, elevated instability for a few
rumbles of thunder across the area, though severe weather is not
expected. PoPs will decrease late this morning and
precipitation will end from west to east through the
afternoon/early evening.


Expected precipitation totals are in the 0.25 to 0.75" range with
the greatest totals expected in western IA. Overnight lows in the
40s should keep all precipitation as rain. Clouds will likely wait
until sunset before breaking up behind the precipitation departure,
though highs are still expected in the 50s. Northwesterly winds will
help to usher in a cooler air mass overnight, with overnight lows
hovering around freezing.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Broad upper level riding will quickly build back into the region
following the departure of Wednesday`s system. As a result, pleasant
conditions will be in place as highs gradually rise from Thursday
through Saturday. Thursday highs are expected to reach the low 60s
in the much of the area with the mid 60s possible by Saturday. These
highs are nearly 10 degrees above the climatological average for mid
November. A weak frontal passage Saturday night is expected to bring
Sunday highs back into the 50s.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...

A change in the upper level pattern will come towards the end of the
weekend and the start of next week as a closed low ejects out of the
Chihuahuan Desert vicinity and into the southern/central Plains.
Long range guidance currently displays low agreement on the timing
and intensity of this system, bringing low confidence in any
potential hazards at this time. While low precipitation chances may
reach the area Sunday night (5-20% chance), the better forcing
likely won`t arrive until Monday and Tuesday. We currently have PoPs
of 30-50% in place for this time frame. Most ensemble members keep
precipitation associated with this system as rain as near to
slightly above average temperatures continue. Long range guidance
suggests that we could see a cooler Canadian air mass moving in
by late next week, though I will abstain from any snowfall
speculation given the extended time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Rain continues across the area this morning with cigs lowering
to MVFR then IFR over the next few hours. We`re looking at an
80% chance of IFR cigs at all the terminals starting between
13-15Z. We`ll see a shift to northwesterly winds behind the cold
front moving through later this morning at KOFK and this
afternoon at KOMA and KLNK. Showers and MVFR/IFR cigs will be
slow to clear the area from west to east, lingering at KOMA
until around 23-00Z. Once we clear out expect VFR conditions the
rest of the evening through the end of the TAF period with wins
out of the northwest around 10-15 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy