Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221133
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

A chilly morning developing across the area with a surface high
pressure of 1026mb keeping skies clear and winds calm. As of
3:20am, temps range from 43F at Blair, Council Bluffs, and here in
Valley to 32 at Albion.

Skies will remain clear until this afternoon when some mid and
high level clouds build in. Under the sunny skies and the pressure
center, temps will peak in the mid to upper-60s as northwesterly
winds redevelop.

Those winds will turn easterly this evening, though slow wind
speeds will prevent most from noticing. As southerly flow develops
overnight (under increasing cigs) temps will bottom out about 15
degrees warmer than they`re expected to this morning. They`ll
still be cooler than seasonal norms.

A one-two punch of precip is expected to first bring showers to
the area early Monday as a shortwave trof sweeps west to east.
QPF should add up to about 0.10" or so for most of eastern
Nebraska. Monday`s highs will settle near 60.

Right on the heels of the first system, a mid-level trof will
bring a surface low and its follow- up wave of showers. This wave
will focus most best precip chances and greatest QPF south of
I-80. Rainfall totals of 0.75" to 1.5" are currently forecast for
areas south and east of the Omaha metro for Tuesday. Severe
weather is not expected this week.

The new drought outlook for summer 2022 has brought bad news for
the area with drought persistence and development now expected
for the entire CWA. The forecast moisture will be gladly received
by many.

Wednesday may see some wrap around showers and will remain gray
and cool. As the system ejects northeast, a shortwave ridge brings
warmer temps and sunny skies for the end of the week. Temps
should make a reasonable run at 90 in central Nebraska by Friday.

Guidance diverges for the weekend proper. Some showers are
possible as early as Friday night in some of the deterministic and
ensemble members. The 00z run of the EC does keep the heat around
a bit longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period with increasing mid
and high clouds late in the period. Light and variable winds this
morning will gradually become northwest and remain generally under
12kts.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.

IA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Kern


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