Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180442
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Remnants of the convective complex that developed over the western
high plains last night continues to work its way across southeast
parts of the forecast area at 19Z with pockets of heavy rain
gradually diminishing through the afternoon.

Another fairly strong shortwave will move into the western high
plains tonight and across the mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday and
Wednesday night bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Similar to last nights and todays
events, pockets of heavy rain will be possible again as a moisture
axis remains over the area with forecast PWs around 2 inches.
Some potential for severe weather will also exist Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening with the better chance looking to
be across central Nebraska at this time.

The shortwave trough is forecast to be over the Mississippi Valley
on Thursday with rain ending in eastern parts of the area during
the morning. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger
into Thursday night although models differ on potential at this
time with low end PoPs currently in place.

A period of dry weather then moves in for Friday and Saturday
with shortwave ridging developing over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

The period is expected to start off dry as mentioned above with
the ridging over the region. However, another strong system is
forecast to into south central Canada by late Sunday, flattening
the ridge and pulling a cold front into the region by Monday.
This front will bring another chance of rain to the forecast from
Sunday night into Tuesday although models differ on the timing
with confidence on the low end at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Main concern within the first 6 hours of the TAF cycle is how low
fog/ceilings will go this morning. Latest short-term guidance is
suggesting KOFK will see lowest visibilites toward LIFR near
sunrise. Will hint at this in TAF but continue to update with
amendments. KLNK and KOMA show some reduced visibilities, but
possibly only to MVFR for a few hours near sunrise. Will be
keeping a close eye on this and ammend as needed. Otherwise,
scattered convection is possible late in the TAF cycle by
Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern


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