597
FXUS63 KOAX 191714
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster or thunderstorms is expected to push southward
  across the area into the afternoon. The strongest storms may
  pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.

- Fog development is expected overnight, with patchy dense fog
  Thursday morning.

- Near-daily storm chances persist through the week, with
  additional strong to severe storms possible. However, dry
  periods are expected to outnumber wet ones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 725 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this morning depict an
amplifying ridge over the western CONUS, bringing northwesterly flow
aloft to much of the area. A train of shortwave disturbances passing
through the flow will bring near daily storm chances, the first of
which is passing through this morning/afternoon.

Storm development has trended later than initial CAM guidance this
morning, allowing for additional (though still not overly
impressive) instability, with pockets of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE in
place. An additional delayed trend will bring more instability
to work with. A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop
across southeast SD/northeast NE later this morning before
pushing southward across eastern NE/far western IA through the
remainder of the morning and early afternoon. Sufficient bulk
shear (40-50 kts) will be in place with model hodographs being
long and generally straight. However, 0-3 km shear remains
weaker (~15 kts), bringing the potential for an initial hail
threat before storms gust out and transition to more of a
damaging wind threat with pockets of 60-70 mph gusts possible.

The cluster of thunderstorms is expected to exit to the south by mid-
afternoon. CAM guidance indicates some potential for storms to
redevelop across eastern Nebraska during the late afternoon and
early evening, though this potential will hinder on the amount of
destabilization that is able to occur behind the initial cluster of
thunderstorms.

Cloud cover will break up and improve through the evening, setting
the stage for fog development overnight. Model soundings indicate
calm winds and a saturated surface layer, though somewhat shallow,
it should allow for fairly widespread fog with patchy areas of dense
fog Thursday morning before gradually burning up after sunrise. High
temperatures on Thursday will be near seasonal norms, peaking in the
mid 80s.

Later Thursday, surface low pressure will develop over Minnesota,
draping a cold front southwestward into northeast Nebraska.
Destabilization through the afternoon will bring a corridor of ample
instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) ahead of the front in northeast NE.
Coupled with sufficient bulk shear, strong to severe storm
development will be possible along the front during the late
afternoon and evening. The primary question will be how widespread
development along the front is, with the better forcing for ascent
to the northeast and a weak cap in place. If storms are able to
initiate in the area, model soundings indicate steep lapse rates and
a favorable environment for isolated pockets of large hail and
strong wind gusts. For the time being, PoPs are capped at 20% given
the lower confidence in convective initiation and likely more
isolated nature of development.

Friday and Beyond...

Friday into early next week, the large scale pattern will remain
generally unchanged, with ridging centered over the Four Corners
region and a stream of shortwave disturbances embedded in the
northwesterly flow aloft bringing periodic precipitation chances.
High temperatures on Friday are expected in the mid to upper 80s
before storm chances return again during the evening. An unstable
airmass will develop through the afternoon before an incoming
shortwave disturbance and surface trough initiate a round of strong
to severe storms over western Nebraska, gradually pushing into the
area through the evening and early overnight period. Questions
remain regarding storm coverage, with PoPs of 30-45% in place.

High temperatures through the weekend and early next week will
oscillate from the upper 70s to the mid 80s as daily precipitation
chances and cloud cover occasionally hinder daytime heating. Near-
daily PoPs of 15-30% are in place, with additional strong to severe
storms possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Strong to severe storms are expected to continue southeast into
eastern Nebraska this afternoon, bringing a few rumbles of
thunder to KOFK and KLNK between 18-21Z. Scattered MVFR cloud
cover will clear out behind the storms, with light easterly
winds prevailing. Fog will likely develop late tonight into
Thursday morning. The best chance for MVFR to IFR visibilities
will be over northeast NE from 10-14Z, though some patchy fog
could creep into KLNK and KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...KG