000
FXUS63 KOAX 031920
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
220 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Key Messages:

 - Spotty, weak thunderstorms expected today and tomorrow.

 - Temperatures to remain fairly consistent through the forecast
   period with a brief dip expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Today and Tomorrow:
This afternoon is expected to play out similar to the past couple
of days. As of 1 PM, the convective temperature (~83F from OAX`s
12Z sounding) had been reached in southwest Iowa. Storms have
developed in those locations and will move slowly to the
northwest. Coverage is expected to be lesser today due to less low
level moisture and instability. Storms this afternoon are not
expected to be severe, but small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph
are possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible due to the
slow storm motions. As these storms are almost entirely reliant on
daytime heating, the chances for storms significantly decrease
after 7 PM.

This pattern will repeat again for tomorrow. High temperatures
will range from 86-90 degrees. Spotty, weak thunderstorms will
develop in the early afternoon. Storm motion will again be to the
northwest and small hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and locally
heavy rain will be possible.

Monday through Friday:
The upper level high currently located over Lake Superior is
expected to slowly retrograde to the west reaching Montana by
Wednesday. For Monday and Tuesday, this won`t be hugely impactful.
High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and possibly reaching
90 at a few locations and skies will be mostly clear. Winds will
be light with mostly an easterly component to them. There are low
chances (20-30%) for afternoon thunderstorms both days. However,
decreasing surface moisture means coverage will be even less than
it has been lately.

A backdoor cold front is expected to move through the area on
Wednesday in response to the retrograding high. This will result
in a about a 5 degree drop in temperature Wednesday and Thursday
(depending on your location). A narrow band of rain showers or
weak thunderstorms could also develop along that east to west
moving front. Outside of the rain chance associated with that
front, the forecast is expected to be dry into Friday. Looking
ahead, temperature rebound closer to 90 on Friday and rain chances
return.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The primary aviation concern today is the chance for spotty
thunderstorms across the forecast area. With primarily easterly
winds, the better storm chances are over south central Nebraska.
Though, the spotty nature of these storms make them both difficult
to forecast by location and timing. Amendments will likely be
required if anything pop-ups near any of the terminal locations.
The timeframe for these spotty storms is between 18Z-01Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...Fajman