247
FXUS63 KOAX 221732
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1132 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and light snow will possible through the day today. Snowfall
  totals are expected to range from a trace to a few tenths of
  an inch.

- Temperatures will increase into this weekend with highs
  generally in the 30s. Highs in the 40s are possible by the
  start of next week.

- No additional precipitation chances are currently in the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Short Term (Today through Friday)

Water vapor analysis this morning displays a broad, positively
tilted trough over much of the CONUS. Southerly low-level flow
has continued to increase temperatures from the bitter, arctic
cold felt just 24 hours prior. Lows this morning are expected in
the teens, a 20 to 30 degree increase from yesterdays lows.
Afternoon highs are expected in the 30s.

A shortwave disturbance ejecting out of Canada and into the northern
and central Plains will bring a chance for flurries and light snow
today. Snow chances will begin in northeast NE early this morning
and progress southeast into the afternoon. Moisture will be limited
with this event, as QPF values are capped at a few hundredths of an
inch. Pops will taper off this evening, though a few flurries will
be possible into the overnight period. Snowfall totals will be
limited, with most only seeing a trace to a few tenths of an inch.
The disturbance will also work to push a cold front through the area
during the overnight period, dropping lows into the positive single
digits and Thursday morning wind chills into the negative
single digits. The post frontal air mass will be felt on
Thursday as highs top out in the teens and 20s.

Friday will start with morning lows again in the single digits.
However, an arctic high passing by the region will bring southerly
low-level flow and warm air advection back to the area. This will
bring highs into the 30s and low 40s.

Long Term (Saturday & Beyond)

This weekend into early next week, the upper level pattern will be
dominated by troughing over the Hudson Bay region and ridging over
the western CONUS. This flow regime will leave us with predominately
dry conditions and mild temperatures. Highs this weekend are
expected in the 30s with the 40s possible through the start of the
work week. This trend looks to continue as the CPC`s 8-14 day
outlook is expecting temperatures leaning above average with
precipitation totals leaning below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Primarily VFR flight categories are reported across the area
as of 1130 AM with a few upper-end MVFR cigs reported in the
northwestern portions of the forecast area where some light snow
and flurries are reported. Most locations will have a threat of
20% chance of snow over most of the next 24 hours. I have
generally not included its mention in the TAF due to low
confidence on location and timing, but have maintained two hour
windows of TEMPO groups for -SN early this afternoon at OFK and
OMA based on current radar trends.

Otherwise, expect a lower-end VFR ceiling through much of the
TAF period with a generally slow clearing trend expected.
Through it all , northwesterly winds of 10-15 knots will be
common with gusts of 20-30 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen