Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 161100
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

WV imagery this morning was showing a closed circulation centered
over WY. Embedded impulses lifting ahead of the system, in
addition to 295-305k isentropic upglide was contributing to
widespread precip with light snow falling over western SD/western
NE/eastern CO. Meanwhile rain was the dominate precip type over
s-central NE and KS. Trends over the last few hours per regional
88D mosaic was showing the precip activity gradually making its
way eastward attempting to overcome dry mid layer seen per KOAX
evening sounding.

Expect the precip to continue to approach the CWA this morning as
the upper system pivots into the central Plains. At this point
precip activity should be pushing into the western CWA sometime
around sunrise this morning. With PW values highest, 0.50" or so
through the day south of I-80, coincident to max omega sliding along
the NE/KS border, highest accumulations of a quarter inch or so will
be found over southeast NE. Rain will gradually dissipate from
west to east tonight as the upper system shifts east and weakens.

Another upper wave is progged to pass through the region on Saturday
resulting only in an increase in clouds before sunshine makes a
return on Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday

The ECM and GFS are in rather good agreement another round of precip
will come early next week. At that time, models prog a broad upper
wave to drop into the lower 48 with attendant cold front making a
strong push deep into the southern tier states. The cold air
advection is stout, but not record breaking. Nevertheless, lows
Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning are expected to bottom out in
the mid to upper 20s. In addition to this, soundings suggest lowest
layers will be too warm to allow for anything more than brief
periods of rain/snow mix during the nighttime hours.

Thursday through Thursday night

A Pacific NW wave and attendant cold front will bring another chance
of showers to the region.

Highs

Tdy - upper 40s/low 50s
Sat - low 50s
Sun - upper 50s/low 60s
Mon - mid 40s/low 50s
Tue - mid/upper 40s
Wed - mid 50s
Thu - low 60s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

VFR conditions becoming MVFR as rain impacts the TAF locations.
The rain becomes prevailing at KLNK 15-17z, KOFK by 17z, and KOMA
by 21z. Then conditions become IFR by 03-05z. Could even see a few
hours of LIFR at KOFK 08-11z. Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots
through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...DeWald


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