


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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841 FXUS64 KOHX 171717 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend. There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from Nashville westward Saturday evening into Saturday night. - Above normal temperatures through Saturday. - Significantly cooler temperatures Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Surface high pressure has slid off to our east but we do remain under the upper level ridge today. That will keep quiet weather in place for one more day before a front brings more active weather later Saturday. Highs today will be warm once again in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A short wave has lifting out of TX and will pass to our west. This will just bring us mid to high level clouds through the evening before clearing back out overnight. Southerly flow and higher dew points will keep things much warmer tonight with lows in the lower 60s. The forecast will become more active on Saturday as an upper level trough comes out of the West and a deep surface low lifts over Canada. This will push a strong cold front through the Plains and into Middle TN Saturday night. Deep layer shear will amp up during the day Saturday pushing to 30-40 knots by the evening and dew points pushing into the mid 60s. We will also see low level wind shear increase pushing 0-1 km shear to 25-35 knots during the evening and 0-1 km SRH to 100-175 and 0-3 km SRH to 150-200. With all of this shear and given the time of year we don`t need a ton of CAPE to see some strong thunderstorms but there is still uncertainty on how much CAPE we see ahead of the front and if we see enough CAPE for strong thunderstorms. Areas from around Nashville westward will see the highest chance of CAPE greater than 250 j/kg with a 40-70% chance and a 5-20% chance of CAPE greater than 500 j/kg. Higher CAPE values would support a greater severe risk but right now it looks like isolated severe storms. Damaging winds will be the primary threat but given the low level profiles and shear can`t rule out tornadoes. Lapse rates will not support large hail but sub-severe hail can be expected with any more organized thunderstorms. PWATs will push to 1.50" and you will see heavy rain with thunderstorms. The line should be moving quickly though keeping the flooding threat very low. The main line of thunderstorms will develop to our west during the day Saturday and push east into western portions of our area between 10 PM and 1 AM. We may see some scattered thunderstorms develop ahead of the main line after 7 PM between Nashville and the TN River but overall those chances look low. Those storms ahead of the main line would pose a severe risk but the main severe risk will be with the line. The line looks to make it to Nashville between 12 AM and 3 AM. It will continue to push east through the overnight but the severe risk will fall off quickly east of Nashville as instability will be much more limited. Some of the timing may change as we get closer to the event and have more of the CAMs to look at. Rain totals through Saturday night look to range from 0.75-2". && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The cold front will continue to progress east Saturday night into Sunday morning. The front and precip will clear the area for the most part by the afternoon. After a hot day Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s we will see a major cool down Sunday as cooler drier air filters in, highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. Weak ridging builds in early next week keeping things dry and warming highs back into the low to mid 70s. A trough will dig out of Canada into the Great Lakes mid-week, this will cool us off a bit again with highs falling back into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The biggest impact with this will be the cold nights mainly Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 30s. The NBM gives the Plateau a non-zero chance of seeing lows 32 or colder those nights but at this point it does look unlikely. Rain chance throughout the week look very low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the forecast period. Winds will be 5 kts or less out of the south through the overnight hours. Winds will increase to 5-10 kts Saturday morning after 15z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 89 60 69 / 0 10 100 40 Clarksville 62 88 57 67 / 0 10 100 40 Crossville 57 79 54 63 / 0 10 90 80 Columbia 61 86 59 69 / 0 10 100 40 Cookeville 60 82 57 65 / 0 10 100 70 Jamestown 58 81 56 64 / 0 10 90 80 Lawrenceburg 61 85 59 67 / 0 10 100 40 Murfreesboro 62 86 59 69 / 0 10 100 50 Waverly 62 85 55 66 / 0 10 100 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Reagan