


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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318 FXUS64 KOHX 071134 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Medium to high rain chances persist through tonight with a very low risk of flooding, mainly across northwest Middle TN. - Cooler temperatures this week with afternoon highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. - Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across Middle Tennessee. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Light to moderate showers are ongoing this evening with a larger cluster of showers slowly moving in from west Tennessee in association with the remnant gulf low currently over Mississippi. As this low moves north, it will eventually collide with the incoming cold front, pushing a plume of higher moisture across northwest Middle TN with PWATs near 2". Measured PWAT values on tonight`s 00Z sounding show us sitting at 1.80" which is .01 away from the daily max. Showers will continue through the overnight hours, increasing in coverage and intensity as greater moisture builds into the area. Very low chance for thunder overnight with such saturated profiles and low instability. Moving into tomorrow, overcast and showery conditions will persist. Our greatest weather hazard will be flash flooding, and the overall threat at this time remains low with a lack of instability and the ongoing drought. However, CAMs tonight are hinting at the possibility of a small window of enhanced CAPE near 1000 J/kg just ahead of the front, and if that is realized, that will drive the flash flooding risk up with higher rainfall rates. That risk is largely confined to the northwest area of the CWA, and appears unlikely at this time with overcast conditions expected. 1" to 3" is likely in total by tomorrow night with the highest totals falling across the northwest portion of the CWA. The HREF gives the Clarksville area a 60% chance of surpassing 2" and only a 20% of surpassing 3". For convective coverage, 00Z CAMs are initializing a narrow band of thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Just as mentioned above, if there are any instances of clearing tomorrow, it will ramp up instability, and with bulk shear values around 30 kts, we could see a strong storm or two. Severe weather chances overall are low, though. The front will clear the area early Wednesday, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Aside from the last bit of showers with the exiting front Wednesday, the long term forecast brings all too familiar conditions back to Middle TN.....dry and warm, though temperatures will be much closer to seasonal norms. Temperatures will gradually warm each day this week with 80s making a comeback by next weekend. Flow aloft will shift northwesterly and with a large ridge building across the central US, a series of upper level disturbances will stream in. Moisture is lacking at this time, so we`ll see some increase in cloud cover, but rain chances at this time each day are less than 10%. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A bit of a messy aviation forecast for Middle TN airfields today due to a nearby low pressure system tracking to our north. Periods of SHRA are expected to persist for much of the day as well as MVFR cigs at BNA, MQY, and CKV this morning through the afternoon. Southerly winds are forecast at 8-12 kts with higher gusts through the afternoon. A front will move through Middle TN in the 00-06z timeframe. This will provide a NW wind shift as well as IFR cigs after ~06z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 80 64 76 52 / 80 50 0 0 Clarksville 79 59 75 47 / 100 20 0 0 Crossville 74 62 70 47 / 60 80 10 0 Columbia 81 63 74 51 / 70 50 0 0 Cookeville 76 62 71 49 / 80 70 10 0 Jamestown 74 61 68 47 / 80 70 10 0 Lawrenceburg 80 63 73 50 / 70 50 0 0 Murfreesboro 81 63 74 51 / 70 60 0 0 Waverly 78 59 73 49 / 90 30 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Sizemore