841
FXUS64 KOHX 171717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend. There is low
  chance for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from Nashville
  westward Saturday evening into Saturday night.

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Significantly cooler temperatures Sunday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Surface high pressure has slid off to our east but we do remain
under the upper level ridge today. That will keep quiet weather in
place for one more day before a front brings more active weather
later Saturday. Highs today will be warm once again in the upper
70s to mid 80s. A short wave has lifting out of TX and will pass
to our west. This will just bring us mid to high level clouds
through the evening before clearing back out overnight. Southerly
flow and higher dew points will keep things much warmer tonight
with lows in the lower 60s.

The forecast will become more active on Saturday as an upper
level trough comes out of the West and a deep surface low lifts
over Canada. This will push a strong cold front through the Plains
and into Middle TN Saturday night. Deep layer shear will amp up
during the day Saturday pushing to 30-40 knots by the evening and
dew points pushing into the mid 60s. We will also see low level
wind shear increase pushing 0-1 km shear to 25-35 knots during the
evening and 0-1 km SRH to 100-175 and 0-3 km SRH to 150-200. With
all of this shear and given the time of year we don`t need a ton
of CAPE to see some strong thunderstorms but there is still
uncertainty on how much CAPE we see ahead of the front and if we
see enough CAPE for strong thunderstorms. Areas from around
Nashville westward will see the highest chance of CAPE greater
than 250 j/kg with a 40-70% chance and a 5-20% chance of CAPE
greater than 500 j/kg. Higher CAPE values would support a greater
severe risk but right now it looks like isolated severe storms.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat but given the low level
profiles and shear can`t rule out tornadoes. Lapse rates will not
support large hail but sub-severe hail can be expected with any
more organized thunderstorms. PWATs will push to 1.50" and you
will see heavy rain with thunderstorms. The line should be moving
quickly though keeping the flooding threat very low.

The main line of thunderstorms will develop to our west during the
day Saturday and push east into western portions of our area
between 10 PM and 1 AM. We may see some scattered thunderstorms
develop ahead of the main line after 7 PM between Nashville and
the TN River but overall those chances look low. Those storms
ahead of the main line would pose a severe risk but the main
severe risk will be with the line. The line looks to make it to
Nashville between 12 AM and 3 AM. It will continue to push east
through the overnight but the severe risk will fall off quickly
east of Nashville as instability will be much more limited. Some
of the timing may change as we get closer to the event and have
more of the CAMs to look at. Rain totals through Saturday night
look to range from 0.75-2".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The cold front will continue to progress east Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The front and precip will clear the area for the
most part by the afternoon. After a hot day Saturday with highs in
the mid to upper 80s we will see a major cool down Sunday as
cooler drier air filters in, highs will be in the mid to upper
60s. Weak ridging builds in early next week keeping things dry
and warming highs back into the low to mid 70s. A trough will dig
out of Canada into the Great Lakes mid-week, this will cool us off
a bit again with highs falling back into the mid 60s to lower
70s. The biggest impact with this will be the cold nights mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 30s. The NBM gives
the Plateau a non-zero chance of seeing lows 32 or colder those
nights but at this point it does look unlikely. Rain chance
throughout the week look very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the forecast period.
Winds will be 5 kts or less out of the south through the
overnight hours. Winds will increase to 5-10 kts Saturday morning
after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  89  60  69 /   0  10 100  40
Clarksville    62  88  57  67 /   0  10 100  40
Crossville     57  79  54  63 /   0  10  90  80
Columbia       61  86  59  69 /   0  10 100  40
Cookeville     60  82  57  65 /   0  10 100  70
Jamestown      58  81  56  64 /   0  10  90  80
Lawrenceburg   61  85  59  67 /   0  10 100  40
Murfreesboro   62  86  59  69 /   0  10 100  50
Waverly        62  85  55  66 /   0  10 100  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Reagan