166
FXUS64 KOHX 250044
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
644 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight through Tuesday.
  There is a very low chance of severe storms Tuesday morning into
  early afternoon.

- Low to medium chance for non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 30-40
  mph overnight into Tuesday morning.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light to moderate showers are ongoing across the western half of
the CWA this evening. The 00Z sounding reveals moistening of the
mid-levels is gradually working down towards the surface. Moisture
advection will continue tonight as rain chances in turn increase
during the overnight hours. A rumble or two of thunder may manage
to squeak out, but surface-based instability will be little to
none overnight. CAMs are holding on to an increase in surface
winds overnight as a 40-50 kt low-level jet passes over the area,
bringing a decent pressure gradient over Middle TN. This will
result in surface winds increasing to near 15 mph with gusts up to
30+ mph at times. Confidence on speeds higher than that is medium
as winds could have a hard time mixing down to the surface, but
nonetheless, I would go ahead and secure any loose outdoor items
now just in case. Timing of these breezier conditions will be
around 11pm through 6am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A prominent shortwave disturbance and associated surface low are
currently sitting across the Central and Southern Plains. A zone
of southwesterly, diffluent flow aloft now resides across the
Tennessee Valley as the system moves gradually east. Upper-level
clouds are increasing in coverage as tropospheric moisture
increases and some rain showers are now moving into western TN.

Rain chances will steadily increase from the west today as low-
level moisture continues to advect into the area. Rain showers
will become more widespread tonight, especially after midnight,
with the approaching area of pre-frontal convection moving out of
the lower Mississippi Valley. Only a few embedded rumbles of
thunder are possible due to pockets of elevated instability. The
main thing we`re looking into for possible impacts are gusty non-
thunderstorm winds due to a mesoscale pressure gradient moving
into Middle Tennessee behind the first batch of rain/convection.
There`s increasing evidence in guidance for wind gusts of 30-40
mph overnight into Tuesday morning, potentially higher.

Severe weather probabilities continue to remain very low.
Surface-based instability is still emerging amongst guidance
Tuesday morning with the synoptic cold front still lagging west of
I-65. Considering favorable deep-layer wind shear and some
instability near/ahead of the front, a strong/severe storm cannot
be ruled out and it`s mainly a damaging wind threat we`re
messaging at this time. Overall weather conditions will improve
throughout Tuesday afternoon behind the front and it will
certainly turn cooler Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

We will shift to drier, much cooler weather across Middle
Tennessee Wednesday through Friday thanks to a longwave upper
trough encompassing much of the central and eastern CONUS along
with a reinforcing cold front. We continue to advertise lows in
the 20s and 30s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights as a result
and day time temperatures will remain below normal. Thursday
night will be the coldest of the forecast period with a widespread
hard freeze expected. Height rises and airmass modification are
expected by the weekend with transitioning flow aloft with the
pattern favoring a developing trough across the West. Rain chances
return the forecast, mainly Sunday into Monday

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Showers will move into the terminals overnight with VFR conditions
prevailing until at least 10z. Winds will increase after 06z with
gusts up to 20-25 kts after 09z until 15-18z. The showers will
decrease in coverage after 15z at CKV/BNA/MQY. There is a low
chance that SRB/CSV will be impacted by a storm during the mid to
late afternoon. Winds will be southerly through the morning before
shifting to the SW after 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  72  46  55 /  90  80  20  10
Clarksville    56  69  42  51 / 100  80  10   0
Crossville     52  64  44  54 /  80  90  60  10
Columbia       56  71  46  55 /  90  80  20   0
Cookeville     55  67  45  55 /  80 100  60  10
Jamestown      52  65  44  55 /  80  90  60  10
Lawrenceburg   56  70  47  55 /  90  90  30   0
Murfreesboro   57  71  47  57 /  90  90  30  10
Waverly        55  68  42  50 / 100  80  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Reagan