991
FXUS64 KOHX 101146
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
546 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Look for a widespread hard freeze Monday morning and again
  Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- There is a medium to high chance (30-60%) for snowfall
  accumulations of a dusting up to 1" across the Cumberland
  Plateau and adjacent areas Monday afternoon. There is a low
  probability of exceeding 1" at the highest elevations.

- Temperatures will quickly rebound to near normal values by
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure is starting to build into Middle Tennessee from a
strong anticyclone over the Great Plains. Winds will remain gusty
throughout today as the pressure gradient remains quite strong,
but look for winds to diminish after 00Z. A deep upper low is
expected to dive southeastward out of the Ohio Valley during the
afternoon and clip the northeast corner of Tennessee. This is
likely to produce some snowfall accumulations across the
Cumberland Plateau and adjacent areas. For this reason, a Winter
Weather Advisory was issued for this area last evening for the
afternoon period. Locations that do receive accumulating snowfall
can expect anywhere from a dusting up to 1", and higher
elevations may even exceed 1", but these would be isolated
occurrences. Flurries may persist into the evening in some areas.
We`ve got one more hard freeze later tonight and early Tuesday.
These will be the coldest temperatures of our brief Arctic
outbreak. After that, temperatures will rebound quickly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

After a series of days in the 60s and 70s, Sunday brought a
dramatic change with daytime temps in the 40s and blustery
northwest winds. Post cold front moisture brought scattered light
rain, sleet, and snow showers late afternoon, and by the evening,
the precipitation had changed to all snow and focused over the
Cumberland Plateau. Numerous "light coating" reports had been
received. By the time accumulating snow tapers off overnight, some
Upper Cumberland spots may have around one half inch, and perhaps
1 inch at the highest elevations. We do not anticipate major
travel issues, but some slick spots on elevated surfaces will be
possible as late night temperatures plummet into the 20s.
Northwest winds will help dry up some of the road surfaces where
precipitation has occurred.

On Monday, the deep trough responsible for the cold blast across
the eastern states will bottom out over Tennessee. This pocket of
very cold air aloft will bring another round of clouds and
scattered precipitation across the area during the afternoon,
again focused mainly over the Plateau with just sprinkles and
flurries elsewhere. The Upper Cumberland has a good shot for a
fresh one half inch of snow with around 1 inch for the highest
elevations from Jamestown to Monterey. Models show a low chance
(about 30 percent) for snow totals building into the 1 to 2 inch
range at the highest elevations. By Monday afternoon, I would not
expect much of Sunday evening`s snow to remain thanks to
compacting and melting from the warm ground, so we would not
really be adding to previous totals. The snow showers could come
down pretty good at times, so driving may be tricky for the Upper
Cumberland Monday afternoon and early evening with some slick
spots and poor visibility.

Otherwise, Monday will be a cold and blustery day area-wide with
temps mostly in the 30s. Northwest winds will gust to 30 mph at
times.

The precipitation and winds will settle down Monday night as
surface high pressure moves directly across the area. Clear skies
and lighter winds will allow most areas to fall to the lower 20s
by daybreak Tuesday, and some areas will dip into the teens.

As quickly as this cold blast arrived, it will move out Tuesday
with temperatures recovering into the 40s and lower 50s. Tuesday
night will not be nearly as frigid with south winds limiting lows
to the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Our early taste of winter will be gone by midweek. Temperatures
will rebound into the 60s Wednesday. Dry northwest flow will keep
conditions dry and calm through at least Friday.

Looking to the weekend, upper level winds will turn southwesterly,
causing temps to warm into the 70s and setting the stage for a
round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday as the next significant
low pressure and frontal system impacts the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure is starting to build into Middle Tennessee from a
strong anticyclone centered over the Great Plains. But a deep
upper low is also poised to swing across the northeast corner of
Tennessee during the afternoon, and this is likely to produce some
measurable snowfall across mainly the Cumberland Plateau. With the
exception of restrictions to visibility during the afternoon at
KCSV and KSRB due to snow, the TAFs are actually VFR. Ceilings
should remain just above 3 kft. Winds will remain gusty throughout
the day owing to a strong surface pressure gradient, but look to
diminish after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      40  25  52  40 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    41  23  52  40 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     30  18  43  33 /  50  30   0   0
Columbia       39  21  52  38 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     33  19  45  35 /  50  20   0   0
Jamestown      31  18  43  34 /  60  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   38  21  50  37 /  10  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   39  21  50  38 /  10  10   0   0
Waverly        39  22  50  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening
for TNZ010-011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose