461
FXUS64 KOHX 152313
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
513 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Low to medium rain chances (10-40%) east of I-65 tonight with
  very light amounts.

- Active weather pattern next week with temperatures favoring
  above-normal.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few t-storms. No severe weather expected at this
  time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

It`s a breezy and warm morning across the area with some clouds
over the southern and eastern parts. Temperatures are in the 60s
with a few locations already into the 70s. We`ll be close to the
record high of 79 at Nashville this afternoon. A cold front is
moving through the Midwest currently and will move through our
area overnight. The CAMs have some showers moving through the
northeast third of the area with QPF less than 0.1". Most of the
area is expected to remain dry.

Sunday will be cooler with northerly surface winds and highs in the
60s instead of the 70s. There will be plenty of sunshine with high
pressure parked over the Midwest. Sunday night will be the coldest
of the forecast with high pressure parked over the area. Lows will
be in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The pattern will become more active in the long term forecast. A
weak wave looks like it will move through the area Monday
night/Tuesday with more showers and possibly a rumble of thunder.
The warm air advection will ramp up in response to a surface low
that will move from the plains into the Midwest with temperatures on
Tuesday rebounding back into the 70s. Once the wave moves through
the area our upper flow will turn zonal to southwesterly as we
progress into mid to late week. This will keep temperatures warm
with more rain opportunities. Models continue to struggle with the
ejection of the deep trough in the Southwest which is making it
hard to pin down timing of PoPs and determining if there will be
any hazardous weather locally associated with that trough. We`ll
continue to monitor the trends, but right now, there is nothing
jumping off the maps at me in regards to flooding or severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Through 06Z, VFR conditions with gusty SSW winds occasionally up
to 20KT.

06Z-12Z, a front will move across the Mid State with a band of
clouds and isold -SHRA. CSV and maybe SRB will have a period of
MVFR cigs/vsbys, but other sites are expected to stay VFR. Winds
will go from WSW to NW as the front passes.

After 12Z, all sites VFR. Winds will be NNW around 10KT with a
few 16KT gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  65  35  62 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    51  63  33  62 /  10   0   0  10
Crossville     53  60  30  57 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       56  67  36  64 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     53  61  32  58 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      51  59  32  56 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  67  33  64 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   56  66  33  63 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        51  63  37  62 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....13