226
FXUS64 KOHX 011746
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Low to medium rain chances return to the forecast starting on Labor
  Day. Severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs through the
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A cluster of showers are ongoing along the plateau this morning
with MRMS estimating rainfall up to 1.5-2.5" in a couple of
localized spots in Jackson and eastern Fentress counties. There is
quite a moisture gradient this morning from our northwest where
dew points are in the low 50s to areas further south and east
where dew points are in the mid 60s. This gradient is thanks to a
surface trough set up over West Tennessee. The latest CAMs show
additional shower and storms developing through the day and into
the evening on the moist side of the boundary. Activity should
decrease after midnight.

The higher moisture will still be around on Tuesday along with a
troughy upper air pattern. This means additional shower and storm
chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. With the showers and storms
around highs on Tuesday will be a couple degrees cooler than today.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The upper troughing will remain to start the extended period which
means the shower and storms chances will continue on Wednesday. A
deeper lobe of upper air energy will pivot around the large upper
low centered north of the Great Lakes on Thursday which will push
a surface cold front through our area throughout the day. This
will increase the PoPs. It will also turn off the rain chances for
Friday as drier air works into the region behind the front. A
secondary cold front will move through Friday night or Saturday.
If the front holds off until Saturday there could be a low chance
of some scattered showers ahead of the front but no weekend wash
out. Behind the second cold front, Sunday and Monday look pleasant
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Largely VFR conditions across terminals this afternoon, but there
are showers and thunderstorms popping up across Middle TN. If any
of these cells move over any terminals, expect a period of MVFR
VIS and CIGs. Storms are producing some lighting and heavy rain,
with winds gusting around 20 mph at times. Expecting shower
activity to dissipate after sunset. Tonight, light winds with VFR
conditions. There is a low to medium chance for some patchy fog
across the Plateau tonight, but not expecting coverage to be very
widespread. Tuesday, will bring another day of light winds with
VFR conditions and chances for showers and thunderstorms after
12z. CIGs should remain VFR outside of any showers and
thunderstorms that move over the terminal on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  85  64  84 /  20  60  70  40
Clarksville    62  85  62  86 /  10  60  50  30
Crossville     57  75  57  74 /  20  40  70  60
Columbia       63  84  62  84 /  20  60  70  40
Cookeville     60  78  60  77 /  30  50  80  60
Jamestown      59  76  58  75 /  20  40  70  60
Lawrenceburg   61  82  60  81 /  20  50  80  50
Murfreesboro   63  84  62  82 /  20  50  70  50
Waverly        61  86  60  84 /  10  60  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Cravens