483
FXUS64 KOHX 190405
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1105 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices
  continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most
  of Middle Tennessee.

- Low rain chances mainly east of I-65 this weekend with a low
  chance for strong storms with gusty winds. Higher rain chances
  spread area-wide Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler air arrives next week with highs mid to late week in the
  upper 70s and lower 80s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The record-breaking heatwave will continue through this weekend as
a Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of our area. BNA
reached 100 Friday, the 4th record high in a row. We have now had
5 days of 100+ temps this September. That is second place to
September 1925 when there were 7 days of 100+ temps. Overall, we
are still on track to have the warmest September on record. We
have a 90 percent chance for record highs Saturday and a 60
percent chance for Sunday.

There are some signs of hope. The very strong ridge overhead was
showing 6000 meter heights from our balloon launch yesterday, but
is now down to 5950 meters. Now much, but more weakening is
ahead, especially after we get through this hot weekend.

The gradual weakening of the ridge will allow increased potential
for scattered showers and storms. That trend has already started
over the Plateau, and on Saturday, low storm chances will spread
west to I-65. A couple of the storms could be strong with gusty
winds. Sadly, most of us will still not see any rain this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Monday will be hot, but hopefully not record-setting as the big
ridge weakens further and additional atmospheric moisture
increases the chance for scattered storms. Those rain and storm
chances will creep up more for Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough
develops to our north and pushes a frontal zone toward our area.

The troughing pattern will deepen mid to late week, pushing the
front down through our area. This will drop temperatures
significantly, although they will still be on the warm side or
normal. The NBM remains optimistic about late week with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Not remarkably cool for this time of year, but oh so much
better than this heatwave! The cooler air will also be drier, so
late week rain chances will be low. This is bad news for crunchy
lawns as Tuesday`s showers and storms may not amount to enough
moisture to turn around the worsening drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

High pressure continues its dominance of Middle Tennessee weather.
TAFs are VFR with the exception of overnight radiation fog at KCSV
and especially KSRB. Winds will be light/calm through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  99  75  98 /   0  10   0  10
Clarksville    72  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     67  91  67  89 /   0  40  10  20
Columbia       72 100  72  99 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     70  94  70  92 /   0  30  10  20
Jamestown      68  91  68  89 /  10  30  10  20
Lawrenceburg   71  98  71  97 /   0  20   0  10
Murfreesboro   72 100  73  99 /   0  20   0  10
Waverly        73  98  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose