


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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937 FXUS64 KOHX 060540 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Rain chances begin by daybreak Monday and continue through Wednesday morning. Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring the highest rain chances of 60-90%. Flood threat is low. - Cooler this week, especially late week when seasonally normal temperatures are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Water vapor imagery this evening shows an upper-level high centered over the mid-Atlantic coast with southerly flow advecting moisture up from the Gulf. Indeed, moisture values are on the rise with the PWAT on this evening`s sounding at 1.34 inches - up from 0.72 inches 24 hours ago. This moisture advection will continue with PWATs forecast to reach 1.7-1.8 inches by Monday evening. This surge of Gulf moisture will mean that rain chances will be on the rise. For tonight, rain chances remain low at less than 20% for areas south of I-40. But as the moisture plume focuses across the western half of Middle TN, this will be the area where rain chances increase to 30-50% through Monday. While moisture is abundant (above the 90th percentile for the date), what`s missing is a source of lift. So while scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily west of I-65 Monday, rain totals look to remain light with this initial wave. HREF probabilities for anything more than 0.25 inches is low at 15-30% for areas near the Tennessee River. By Tuesday morning, a shortwave will begin tracking through the Midwest with its associated cold front beginning to approach Middle TN from the northwest. It`s this front that will provide the necessary lift to increase rain chances to 60-90% Tuesday and into Tuesday night along with rain totals. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will become more numerous in coverage Tuesday ahead of the front. Highest rain totals look to favor the northwest where probabilities that amounts exceed 1 inch by Tuesday night are around 60-75% with the probability of getting at least 2 inches around 30-45%. The overall flood threat is low through Tuesday. This system will be progressing quickly, and forecast soundings show saturated profiles with relatively low CAPE profiles. However, this abnormally high moisture will still lend itself to efficient rainfall rates which may produce minor flooding in some areas. Nevertheless, this looks to be a beneficial rain event for those in drought. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Models continue to trend faster with the passage of the front with it now being favored to clear Middle TN by Wednesday morning. Due to this, rain chances continue to trend down Wednesday post-front. A mostly dry forecast is then in place through the weekend with just a few weak disturbances keeping low rain chances in the forecast mainly for the Plateau Thursday and Friday. The better news will be the much cooler airmass that will be in place post-front. High temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will generally be in the 60s across the Plateau and into the 70s elsewhere. Mornings may even be a little chilly as low temperatures make it down into the 40s for the Plateau. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Increasing clouds are expected across Middle TN this morning along with development of light rain showers near BNA, MQY, and CKV in the 12-14z timeframe. MVFR cigs are also likely with -SHRA activity through the morning hours, though vis should remain VFR unless precip intensity increases. I believe BNA and MQY will get a break in activity during the afternoon, though CKV will remain in a favorable area for continued rain chances through the period along with IFR cigs after ~00z. It appears SRB and CSV remain dry through this TAF period. Winds remain southeasterly at 5-10 kts with higher gusts possible early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 83 69 80 64 / 50 60 90 80 Clarksville 80 67 77 60 / 70 80 90 60 Crossville 78 63 76 62 / 10 30 70 90 Columbia 81 68 80 65 / 50 40 80 80 Cookeville 81 66 77 63 / 20 40 90 90 Jamestown 80 64 76 62 / 20 40 80 90 Lawrenceburg 81 66 80 64 / 40 40 80 70 Murfreesboro 83 68 81 65 / 30 40 90 90 Waverly 76 66 77 60 / 70 70 90 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Sizemore