356
FXUS64 KOHX 291736
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Widespread light rain showers this afternoon into Sunday
  morning, then again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
  total rainfall through Tuesday is 0.5"-1.5".

- Low to medium chances for light snow across the northwest half
  of Middle Tennessee Tuesday morning. Chances for 1.0" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures remain below-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A shortwave disturbance and associated low pressure system are
now moving toward the Mississippi Valley. This system is producing
winter weather for areas along and north of the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee remains in a very dry, cold airmass
thanks to high pressure near the East Coast. Despite an increase
in upper-level clouds/moisture, the low-levels are dry with RH
values dipping into the 20-30% range this afternoon. With
increasing wind gusts this afternoon there`s marginal fire weather
parameters in place. Thankfully light rain/rain showers will
increase in coverage late afternoon from the west. Rain will
persist overnight, though may become somewhat sparse in coverage
as upper-level forcing decreases after Midnight. Rain chances will
persist into early tomorrow morning, but fade off after lingering
activity crosses the Cumberland Plateau. Drier, cooler air is
forecast Sunday night into Monday morning as high pressure passes
to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Another shortwave disturbance is forecast to move into the region
on Monday, so upper-level clouds/moisture will once again increase
as it nears the Mississippi Valley. Rain chances will increase
Monday afternoon once isentropic ascent overspreads the area.
Widespread light/moderate rain showers are expected Monday evening
and overnight when the low-level jet and warm advection maximize.
This will be a cold rain at the surface with temperatures in the
mid 30s to low 40s most places, though northwest portions of
Middle Tennessee may stick around in the low 30s. A wintry mix
cannot be ruled out up there Monday night. However, by early
Tuesday morning, cold advection should swing back in from the
northwest while interacting with lingering low-level moisture.
Rain could change back to snow for areas generally north of I-40,
though some flurries will be possible area-wide as the back side
of the inverted surface trough moves east. Best chances for a
light snow accumulation are for areas generally north and west of
Nashville, and we currently maintain amounts less than one inch
in the forecast. There`s only a 10-20% chance for snowfall
exceeding 1.0" right now, but a 10-50% chance for measurable (at
least 0.1") along and north of I-40. These amounts shouldn`t
result in any major impacts due to surface temperatures
staying/rising above freezing, but some slick spots cannot be
ruled out across northwest Middle Tennessee early Tuesday
morning. Stay tuned to the forecast.

The upper-level pattern remains active through the rest of the
forecast period. After dry, cool weather Wednesday and Thursday,
another system is depicted on medium-range guidance for
Friday/Saturday which is expected to bring another chance for
light rain to the area. Overall temperatures remain below-normal
the entire forecast thanks to longwave upper-troughing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A surface low currently situated near Kansas City is pushing a
broad frontal system into the eastern U.S. that will impact Middle
Tennessee beginning late this afternoon and continuing into
tomorrow. We expect showers to begin spreading eastward across
Middle Tennessee by this evening. PoPs at most of the terminals
aren`t great enough to warrant more than a PROB30, although we
have used TEMPO groups and lower vsby where the rain chances are
greater. Ceilings will gradually drop to MVFR later tonight and
persist at least into Sunday morning before improving. Also look
for winds to shift to the NW after 12Z with the surface fropa.
We have used LLWS remarks where criteria have been met, which
will occur as the surface boundary gets close.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  36  46  26 /  30  60  10   0
Clarksville    49  32  41  23 /  50  70   0   0
Crossville     45  36  44  20 /  10  40  30   0
Columbia       51  38  47  24 /  30  70  10   0
Cookeville     48  36  45  22 /  10  50  20   0
Jamestown      46  35  45  21 /  10  50  20   0
Lawrenceburg   51  38  48  24 /  20  60  10   0
Murfreesboro   52  38  48  23 /  20  50  10   0
Waverly        48  31  42  22 /  50  80   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Rose