262
FXUS64 KOUN 290656
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1256 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

-Scattered showers expected this morning across eastern into
 southern Oklahoma.

-A strong cold front moves through today, bringing falling
 temperatures during the afternoon and gusty north winds.

-Below normal temperatures persist into early next week, with a
 chance for light wintry precipitation Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The mid-latitude cyclone that will bring us our strong cold front
later today is currently moving eastward across western Kansas
early this morning. Ahead of the cold front, isentropic
ascent/warm advection associated with a 55 to 65 knot low-level
jet is resulting in numerous showers across south central into
east central Oklahoma. The low-level jet, along with a tight
surface pressure gradient, is resulting in gusty southerly winds.
Given there has been some wind gusts to 40 mph this evening, opted
to start the Wind Advisory earlier. The Wind Advisory was also
expanded to the east.

The aforementioned cold front will approach northwest Oklahoma
between 4 and 5 AM and move through the entire area by late this
afternoon as the mid-latitude cyclone accelerates toward the
Midwest. With the mid-latitude cyclone accelerating to the
northeast, the strongest isentropic ascent/warm air advection will
also shift to the northeast later this morning. This will result
in the coverage of showers decreasing this morning.

The air mass behind this cold front is the coldest of the season
with temperatures in the teens and 20s across the northern Plains
early this morning. Cold air advection will result in a non-
diurnal temperature trend with falling temperatures expected
behind the front. Ahead of the front, temperatures will rise into
the upper 50s to mid 60s deg F. The cold air advection, a tight
surface pressure gradient, and 30 to 40 knot 925 to 850 mb flow
will result in gusty northerly winds. These northerly winds,
combined with falling temperatures, will result in wind chills
dropping into the 20s and 30s deg F across the northern half of
Oklahoma this afternoon. With the strongest cold air advection
lagging behind the wind shift, western north Texas into southern
Oklahoma will not see appreciable cold air advection until
tonight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

While winds will gradually decrease Saturday night, northerly
winds will remain strong enough to result in appreciable cold air
advection. Low temperatures by Sunday morning will range from the
teens to the 20s deg F. Combined with the northerly winds, wind
chills will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday afternoon
will remain quite cold (but dry) with afternoon highs ranging from
the mid 30s to mid 40s deg F.

By Sunday night, cloud cover will increase markedly as isentropic
ascent increases ahead of a positively-tiled shortwave trough
approaching from the northwest.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The positively-tiled shortwave trough will quickly track across
northern Oklahoma into Kansas on Monday. There will be two
mechanisms for precipitation:

1) Across northern Oklahoma, synoptic-scale ascent associated
with the shortwave trough will result in a chance for light snow.
The track of the shortwave (i.e., near the Kansas/Oklahoma border)
isn`t favorable for appreciable snowfall with the highest chance
across Kansas. Currently, the chance of 1" or higher of snowfall
is 20 to 30% near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

2) South of this area, warm air advection/isentropic ascent ahead
of the wave may result in light precipitation as early as Monday
morning. Given the saturation is forecast to be below the
dendritic snow growth zone (-12 to -18 deg C), the potential is
there for light freezing rain or light sleet before temperatures
rise above freezing. Given a relatively dry boundary layer--the
chance of impactful winter precipitation is low. However, this is
a trend we`ll have to watch carefully as it does not take much
light freezing rain to cause impacts (especially on elevated
surfaces).

Temperatures will moderate by Tuesday and Wednesday as mid-level
heights rise. However, another cold front will move through late
Wednesday into Thursday. This cold front will return us to below
average temperatures on Thursday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and
into Saturday, especially across southeastern Oklahoma. While
there still is a potential of showers farther northwest, the
potential appears a little lower than previously forecast and
have made this adjustment in the 06Z TAFs. Widespread MVFR and
locally IFR ceilings are still expected overnight with gusty
southerly winds. Ceilings will improve Saturday as a cold front
moves through and brings drier low-level air into the area. This
front will also bring strong and gusty northwest winds during the
day on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  46  57  24 /  10  20  30   0
Hobart OK         53  47  59  22 /  10  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  58  49  67  27 /  20  30  20   0
Gage OK           55  41  47  18 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  45  53  21 /  10  40  50   0
Durant OK         59  46  59  27 /  10  80  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ004>032-034-035.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26