424
FXUS64 KOUN 181755
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

  - Near record heat Tuesday southern Oklahoma and western north
    Texas.

  - Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible late Wednesday into
    Thursday. A few strong to severe storms possible late
    Wednesday afternoon and night.

  - Rain chances increase again late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Cold front just south and east of the I-44 corridor will continue to
move south this afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter
in behind the front. Meanwhile, ahead of the front another very
warm/hot afternoon will occur with some locations approaching record
highs once again.

This front will still near the Red River late today and remain near
stationary tonight. Low level flow will turn back around to the
south and southwest overnight. This will result in a layer of waa
and moisture transport northward into north Texas and the southern
half of Oklahoma tonight. Capping inversion should limit any
potential for elevated convection late tonight, but stratus deck is
expected to develop across the southern half of Oklahoma southward
into Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Cold front will wash out during the day Wednesday and moisture will
slowly lift farther north as well. There is a wave moving north
through New Mexico, but lift associated with this wave will remain
well west of the area through the day. This along with subtle high
rises and the presence of a capping inversion should limit any
showers/storms during the daylight hours Wednesday. If storms are
able to develop and there will be an increasing likelihood as we go
into the evening hours a few strong to perhaps low-end severe appear
possible. Models differ wrt surface instability, however by late in
day models are showing MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and
increasing wind shear that would support some severe storms along
and east of I-44 across southern into central Oklahoma.

The increase in waa and lift associated with another southern stream
wave lifting north across the area will result in more widespread
precip Wednesday night, especially across southeast half of
Oklahoma.

Main upper low finally begins to shift east on Thursday giving the
entire area a chance of rain. Models have continued to trend down
wrt precip amounts with much of the area receiving around an inch or
less. Still think there is a chance of some mesoscale banding that
could produce some higher amounts, but location of these would be
hard to determine at this time. There are some indications that a
few severe storms will remain possible in the warm sector of
southeast Oklahoma Thursday. A broad dryslot overspreads the area
Thursday night which should bring a rather quick end to much of the
rain by Friday morning.

In addition, analysis of soundings under the upper low as it
translates east show the potential for a few cold core severe
storms. Some models take the low across northern Oklahoma, while
others are farther north across Kansas. Hail would be the main
hazard with these storms, but would be an environment favorable for
cold air funnels and perhaps a weak tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Guidance has been rather consistent in tracking an upper low from
the Texas Panhandle into southeastern Kansas on Friday. As this
occurs, a Pacific cold front will usher in drier air with a
trailing continental front entering northwest Oklahoma by late
morning. As the second boundary pushes southeast, gusty northwest
winds will develop behind the boundary along with a cooler air
mass. Some light showers will linger across northern Oklahoma
Friday morning, but overall most areas will be dry on Friday.

Another system developing over southern California will bring our
next chance of rain, perhaps as early as Sunday/Sunday night.  There
is a decent spread in ensemble guidance with this system, especially
timing. There is a better consensus for a decent chance of
rain/storms late Sunday into Monday with drier weather by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. MVFR
ceilings will slowly creep northward near the end of the TAF
period. Confidence is highest at KDUA, but additional sites may
need to be included in ceiling restrictions at later TAF
issuances. Winds will gradually veer from the north to the east
through the period for most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  76  60  68 /   0  10  60  90
Hobart OK         49  76  58  69 /   0  20  50  90
Wichita Falls TX  54  80  63  71 /   0  30  80  90
Gage OK           42  71  50  65 /   0   0  10  80
Ponca City OK     45  71  56  68 /   0   0  60  80
Durant OK         58  83  64  73 /   0  20  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...13