604
FXUS64 KOUN 111109
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot temperatures continue for the foreseeable future.

- Elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma Tuesday
  and potentially again Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The heat wave rolls on today. The subtropical ridge continues across
an axis from the Four Corners to the Florida Keys and nothing in the
near term looks to budge it. 850 mb winds remain veered across the
High Plains which will encourage deep mixing. Surface temperatures
will rise well into the 100s west of I-35 and to around 100 near the
I-35 corridor.

Elevated fire weather continues today in northwest Oklahoma in part
thanks to that strong mixing, which will increase maximum gusts to
25 mph and reduce minimum RH to around 25%. Fire weather conditions
will improve around sunset as winds decrease; the oppressive heat
will be slower to recede over the early parts of the night.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level pattern during the short-term will be characterized
by the emergence of a broad, though rather weak trough reaching the
Pacific Coast. This will help to recenter the subtropical ridge over
the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. A surface low pressure will
develop over the area on Thursday with a weak front possibly
entering from the north as well.

Rather than that frontal boundary providing heat relief, downslope
mixing + compressional warming near the surface low will potentially
bring temperatures up another degree or two compared to today. Fire
weather could also be elevated (or perhaps locally near-critical)
across parts of western Oklahoma Wednesday/Thursday afternoon,
though the location of the surface low will play a key role in that
(stronger surface winds to the south and west of the low, weaker
winds near and north of the low).

Some guidance (notably the NAM) depicts a disturbance or two
developing on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge by
Thursday evening. Any storms that develop from those MCVs would
likely remain to our west, but rain/thunderstorm chances are at
least mentionable (20 percent or so) in northwest Oklahoma Thursday
night.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

There`s not much to say about the long-term pattern that hasn`t
already been said. The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
from the Gulf Coast to the southern Plains through the upcoming
week. There will be a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of
California northward through Arizona/New Mexico and northeastward
into the central Plains. This pattern will encourage thunderstorm
development daily throughout the plume. However, for most of us,
subsidence from the subtropical ridge looks likely to keep all rain
and cooler temperatures away at least through the middle of next
week.

The potential exception to the rule is northwest Oklahoma. Here,
there is a little more distance from the center of the subtropical
high. There`s also a little less distance to the Rocky Mountain
terrain features that will initiate daily thunderstorms from Friday
through the weekend. Thus, low-end nocturnal precipitation chances
remain in the forecast in far northwest OK from Friday night through
Monday night. For the rest of us, expect hot, dry, and sunny weather
to continue.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for the next several days.
Today will be an autopilot day, with generally the same settings
as yesterday. The only minor change from yesterday will be the
winds, which are expected to mix a bit deeper than yesterday,
allowing for a few gusts to over 20 knots between 17Z and 23Z. We
will once again see some cumulus develop during the heat of the
day, but not much in the way of visibility or ceiling
restrictions.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  78 101  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        103  79 104  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 103  78 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          104  77 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    103  80 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK        101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21