386
FXUS64 KOUN 131747
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1147 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend.

 - Precipitation chances return by mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper ridging has setup to the southwest of the region this morning
and is expected to pivot east through Friday. Moderate southerly
winds will prevail through this afternoon in response to a surface
low stalling over the Texas Panhandle. The nice temperatures
currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s won`t last much longer. The
upper ridging and southerly surface flow will continue to warm
temperatures to unseasonably warm highs in the upper 70s to 80s
later this afternoon. Should be a nice night with light southerly
winds as the surface low weakens. A wide range of lows are expected
overnight in the lower 40s over northwestern regions to lower 60s
over southeastern regions. Friday will be another hot and dry one as
the apex of the upper ridging shifts across Oklahoma with expected
highs in the 80s for much of the CWA. A dryline looks to set up just
east of the Oklahoma/Texas border with decent convergence expected
along the boundary, however models do not expect any convection as
moisture return will be weak. Winds will shift to the southwest and
become breezy through Friday afternoon, hopefully giving some
reprieve from the hot temperatures if you have to be outside.
Another mild and quiet night is expected Friday night with warmer
lows in the 50 to lower 60s for much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

I`m sorry to say that the unseasonably hot temperatures will
continue into Saturday with the upper ridge expected to persist
through the weekend keeping temperatures warm and conditions dry.
Winds will shift to the north late Saturday through early Sunday as
a cold front pushes through most of the CWA. Models indicate the
front will stall and dissipate just before reaching the northeastern
Texas border. The northerly flow will cool temperatures to the upper
60s to lower 70s for areas behind the front on Sunday, however areas
ahead of the front can expect to see highs in the lower 80s. We will
finally see a break from the hot temperatures early next week as
models indicate another cold front pushing through the area Monday
night. On the upper levels, the ridging will finally shift eastward
as multiple back to back upper troughs swing over central CONUS
through next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by the
middle of next week as the back to back upper disturbances track
near the region, prolonging active weather through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period.
Breezy southerly winds will continue through this afternoon, but are
expected to weaken this evening. LLWS up to 45 knots is expected at
KLAW, KSPS, and KDUA beginning around midnight and continue
through early Friday morning. Winds are expected to shift to the
southwest and increase Friday morning and persist through the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  56  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         82  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           77  41  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     78  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  61  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...WFO LUB
LONG TERM....WFO LUB
AVIATION...WFO LUB