910
FXUS64 KOUN 030554
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across
   northern Oklahoma.

 - Warmer weather expected on today and Thursday with highs back
   in the 80s to mid 90s.

 - Another chance of thunderstorms Thursday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Southerly winds are expected to return to the area today although
still relatively light. A thermal ridge is expected to build
eastward into the area today ahead of a weak front that is expected
to move into the area late this afternoon/early evening. The thermal
ridge, return to southerly winds, and more sunshine will lead to
closer to normal temperatures across the fa today. Highs will range
from the mid 80s in eastern parts of the fa to the low 90s in
western parts of the area which would be better positioned under the
thermal ridge.

The area is expected to remain dry until possibly late this
afternoon/evening when there is a low chance (around 15%) for a few
showers/storms to develop near the front in parts of northern and
central OK. Models have backed off on shower/storm development but
with a boundary in the area and heating, can not completely rule
them out. If any storms do develop, enough instability (1000-1500
J/kg) and shear is expected to be present that the storms could
become strong to severe. Damaging winds would be the primary
concern. Any potential for showers/storms will end this evening with
the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The previously mentioned front will continue to move across the area
tonight into early Thursday before stalling in southern parts of the
fa. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 50s to 60s
tonight.

The airmass behind the weak front that moves across the area tonight
into early Thursday will not be appreciably different at least
temperature wise so Thursday highs across much of the fa will not be
much different than today`s. The one exception will be in SW parts
of the fa where temperatures could be even warmer (highs mid/upper
90s) due to a thermal ridge that is expected to build into that area.

The forecast will remain dry overnight and until late Thursday
night. Models show a shortwave rotating across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes region that will push a stronger cold front
into the area late Thursday night/early Friday. The front will
continue to move across the area Friday bringing a chance for
showers/storms late Thursday into Friday.

With the stronger front moving across the area Friday, a decent
temperature gradient is expected across the fa Friday afternoon with
highs ranging from the low 70s in northern OK and the low/mid 90s in
the Red River Valley. Temperatures Friday night are expected to fall
into the low 50s (NW OK) to the low/mid 60s across southern OK and
north TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

With the front lingering in/near the area, low rain chances will
continue Saturday with chances shifting into southern parts of the
fa. Models differ later this weekend into early next week but it
looks like rain chances will continue across the area during this
time period. Some of the models show the remnants of a tropical
system in the Pacific moving into and lingering in the region this
weekend into early next week. Other models show a shortwave moving
across the Plains. Both scenarios would bring the potential for
showers/storms, especially if at the very least some of the moisture
associated with the tropical system makes it into the region.

After Friday, below average/cooler temperatures are expected across
the fa over the weekend into early next week with highs back in the
70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Although there is still some potential for restrictions to
visibility Wednesday morning before sunrise, the probability now
looks low enough that will not include a tempo group in the TAFs.
Light winds will become southerly in some areas Wednesday morning.
There will be some isolated showers/storms late Wednesday
afternoon and evening in northern Oklahoma, but the probability at
any location is about 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  64  85  68 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         92  63  93  69 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  67  95  74 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           93  58  88  61 /  10  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     87  61  84  63 /  10  20   0  10
Durant OK         86  66  92  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26