856
FXUS61 KRLX 061853
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few rain or snow showers Sunday afternoon, with more
widespread wintry mix changing to all snow Sunday night into
Monday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Mostly cloudy conditions are noted over the area, with a few
breaks in the various levels of cloud decks. After morning low
stratus cleared out, we maintained a broken altostratus deck,
and now lower clouds are starting to work back into the area
from the west. We should stay on the dry side through tonight,
but a weak shortwave crossing Ohio and PA late this afternoon or
this evening could bring some patchy drizzle or freezing
drizzle to northern WV, depending on temperature. Some light
snow is possible in a few spots if clouds can get over the -10C
level, but forecast soundings mainly had the saturated layer
staying below that.

The shallowest of shortwaves will slide across the eastern Great
Lakes and central Appalachians Sunday afternoon, which could
bring some isolated and temperature-dependent rain/snow showers
to the CWA. However, the better moisture availability and
forcing with this feature looks to stay north of our area, so
Sunday afternoon`s precip looks to be limited in scope. Forecast
highs in the low to mid-40s would indicate that any lower
elevation precip is likely to be rain, while a mix or all snow
is possible in higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

What the Sunday afternoon clipper disturbance lacks in moisture
across our area, it will partially make up for with a decent
shot of cold air surging into the CWA behind its cold front
Sunday night into Monday. Lows Monday morning will be mainly in
the 20s, with some teens in the mountains. Highs on Monday won`t
budge much as N`ly winds persist with the cold advection, only
rising to the low to mid-30s in lower elevations.

A second weak disturbance will follow the first one on a more
southerly track Sunday night into Monday, as a broad and weak
low develops along the Gulf Coast and then transits eastward and
off the Southeast Coast. As it does so, the upper- level trough
is forecast to draw some moisture north towards the central
Appalachians, bringing some rain and snow showers later Sunday
evening that transition to all snow overnight into Monday
morning. This second system will bring more widespread precip
than the Sunday afternoon disturbance, but likely mainly south
of the Ohio River. Lowlands of central and southern WV are
forecast to see mainly an inch, with up to around 2 inches
possible for the southern WV mountains down into our VA
counties.

As the base of the trough slides east of the CWA Monday night,
any lingering mountain snow showers Monday evening should
quickly end. High pressure sliding east of our area will combine
with disturbances pushing into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes on Tuesday to bring increasing S-SW`ly breezes and highs
surging back into the 40s for most of the lowlands and 30s in
the mountains. Some patches of sunshine will also be possible on
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

A more potent clipper system is forecast to swing from the
northern Plains across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday
night, pushing a cold front across the CWA in the evening or
overnight hours. Ahead of the cold front, warm advection will
continue on gusty SW`ly winds, with highs ranging from the
mid-30s to lower 40s in the mountains to the mid-40s to near 50
degrees in lower elevations. As a result, when precip starts to
push into the area around midday or early afternoon on
Wednesday, it should start off as rain for everywhere except the
mountains.

A parade of disturbances may then impact the CWA through the
end of the week, but with significant model uncertainty on the
track and timing of the features, and as a result a wide spread
on potential temperature scenarios. While it seems likely that
there will be a significant cool-down between Thursday and
Saturday of next week, how fast and how cold remain unclear. For
example, for Charleston`s high on Friday, the NBM probabilistic
data has an 10-degree 25th/75th percentile spread, with a 20
degree 10th/90th spread. That is quite impressive and is a good
illustrator of the uncertainty. All of that is to say that the
precip type forecast for later next week will be highly
dependent on the speed and severity of any dropping
temperatures. So take the p-type forecast later next week with
at least a few grains of salt and expect potentially significant
changes as we get closer and the models hopefully come into
better agreement and lock onto a clear solution one way or the
other.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

Several different cloud decks are noted across the area, with
most of the area VFR under an altostratus cloud deck, but a new
lower stratocu deck is working in from the west, returning some
sites to at least intermittent MVFR ceilings. As we go through
the afternoon and evening, most sites are forecast to go back to
MVFR ceilings. Our southwestern sites of CRW and HTS may come
back to VFR flight category by midnight or before, but the other
TAF terminals may not break out of the MVFR stratus until closer
to 12z Sunday or even a bit after. A stray bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle is possible for CKB or EKN this evening or
early overnight, but confidence in that is low and it would
likely be quite fleeting, so no mention was made in the TAF as
of now.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of transition from VFR to MVFR
today, and then back to VFR later tonight could vary by a
couple hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK