126
FXUS61 KRLX 040523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
123 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather prevails into the start of next week courtesy
of high pressure. A cold front slated to arrive on Tuesday
brings the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...

Overall the forecast was not changed, with the exception of
bringing up dew points a bit in the first several hours of the
forecast to account for current Td values being a few degrees
higher than the forecast. Otherwise, still expect some valley
fog to develop later tonight, following the typical pattern of
starting in some of the higher valleys of the southern coal
fields and around Elkins, then gradually spreading to lower
elevation valleys approaching sunrise.


As of 145 PM Friday...

Tranquil weather amid triumphant high pressure will yield mostly
sunny skies during the daytime hours both this afternoon and on
Saturday. River valley fog development taking place just before
sunrise Saturday morning will then give way to another pleasant
day across the Central Appalachians. Low temperatures tonight
will dip down into the 40s along the mountains and 50s across
the lowlands, followed by Saturday daytime highs ranging in the
70s and 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Predominantly dry weather continues its reign over the Central
Appalachians for the end of the weekend into the start of the
new work week under the guise of high pressure both aloft and at
the surface. Low level onshore flow will encourage warming
temperatures each day, with afternoon highs ranging in the 70s
to mid 80s and overnight lows spanning the 50s to low 60s.
Abundantly dry air aloft throughout the short term, coupled
with warming temperatures, may yield low afternoon RH values.
With leaf litter now occurring due to the time of year, this
could impose close monitoring of fire weather concerns heading
into next week ahead of rain progged for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

A passing cold front will supply the main weather maker
throughout the entire forecast package. The dome of dominating
high pressure along the eastern seaboard will condense and push
eastward overnight Monday into Tuesday as a negatively tilted
upper trough carves through the Desert Southwest. At the
surface, the cold front will bolster the first appearance of
rain to portions of the Ohio Valley beginning Tuesday morning,
then spreading down into the forecast area throughout the day.
Precipitation chances tip over into midweek as the front
continues to make eastward progression through the country,
serving up much needed rainfall to this drought stricken area.

High pressure sinking down from Canada will bring the return of
dry weather late in the forecast period. Some global models hold
onto low level moisture longer than others, so some uncertainty
still remains on this portion of the forecast in regards to the
departure of rain and post-frontal stratus.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate as fog develops in the
river valleys overnight, with EKN, CRW, and PKB being the most
likely terminals to experience IFR or worse CIGs/VIS before
sunrise. Conditions will gradually improve as fog lifts between
12-14Z. High pressure will then sustain VFR conditions for the
rest of the TAF period.

Winds will be calm to light and variable for most of the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 10/04/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog again Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...05/FK
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...20