314
FXUS61 KRLX 150205
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1005 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak flow and weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with weak mid-
level lapse rates will promote slow moving, heavy showers and
storms through early next week. Localized flooding is possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1005 PM Saturday...

Updated PoPs with slightly earlier emphasis in the uptick in
showers and thunderstorms tonight, currently being realized from
Vinton County, Ohio, southward through the Tug Fork and into
southwest Virginia. This is associated with forcing ahead of the
mid/upper-level short wave trough, and will need monitored,
especially as it moves into the northern and central mountains,
with terrain-enhanced lift, heading into the overnight hours.

North of Vinton County, this line intersects a west-southwest to
east-northeast line of showers and thunderstorms associated the
deformation zone north and northeast the short wave/spot low,
and extending into a mid/upper-level confluence zone in western
Pennsylvania. This line will need monitored for possible
filling in over the next several hours.

As of 815 PM Saturday...

Forecast on track, with a gradual and partial diurnal wane in
showers and thunderstorms this evening possibly reversing, with
an uptick tonight as a mid/upper-level short wave trough
approaches from the west-southwest.

As of 200 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Warm, moist airmass with limited mid-level lapse rates sets the
  stage for efficient rainfall production

* Extremely localized water issues are possible tonight, a few
  instances of significant localized flooding are possible

* Better chances for more widespread water issues, some locally
  significant are possible on Sunday into Sunday night

* Limited risk for severe weather outside of flooding, although some
  locally gusty winds could cause tree damage with any convection

Surface based parcels have become uncapped with isolated to
scattered convection blossoming over much of the region this
afternoon. Steering flow this afternoon is around 20-25 mph from the
southwest, so not expecting heavy precipitation cores to linger over
any given spot and with matching southwesterly flow at the surface
cooling the surface and overturning already weak mid-level lapse
rates should help reduce the risk of substantial training through
mid-afternoon. While the threat will be limited, deep warm cloud
depths, precipitable water values near 1.8 inches and deep skinny
CAPE profiles will be conducive for efficient and heavy rainfall
production. While threat for severe storms with this activity is
low, some localized tree damage would be possible with any erratic
and gusty sub-severe winds near convection.

Better coverage is expected to come late afternoon into this
evening courtesy of more focused forcing associated with a weak
shortwave embedded in the southern stream - similar to
yesterday`s activity but with a little less coverage. Storms
associated with this forcing should be fairly progressive and
despite fairly high rainfall rates associated with efficient
deep warm cloud depth warm rain process - not expecting too many
water concerns. Any storms that fire away from the stronger
forcing will have a higher potential to sit over a given spot
and backbuild as steering flow weakens to around 10-15 mph which
could lead to isolated water problems, some potentially locally
significant through tonight before dissipating. At this point,
confidence in any given county experiencing locally significant
issues is not high enough to hoist a flash flood watch for
activity through tonight. Had considered lumping this potential
in with the expected activity on Sunday, but after collaboration
with neighboring offices will forgo this and defer the decision
for Sunday`s watch to the midnight shift.

The aforementioned parameters favorable for efficient and heavy
rainfall production will remain in place on Sunday as the upper low
approaches and eventually moves overhead, although instability
will be a little weaker due to substantial cloud cover through
peak heating. With weakening flow associated with the
circulation we will see potential for more persistent heavy rain
over any given spot with any given updraft. We will also see
the light winds shifting around during the day as the upper low
crosses, increasing potential for more pristine sections of the
column to shift over locations that already experienced a bout
of heavy rain. While this will be possible over the entire
forecast area, the most substantial risk appears to be across
the northeast mountains where the nose of a modest belt of
enhanced H850 flow is expected to reside. HREF probability
matched mean 6hr values suggest some localized bullets of 3-5"
of rain across this area within a 12 hour period where 6hr flash
flood guidance ranges from 2.2 to 3 inches. A flash flood watch
will likely become necessary for these areas, perhaps extending
a bit farther out into the lowlands. As mentioned above this
threat will include our bordering forecast areas who are dealing
with potential flooding today and would prefer avoid mixing
messages. To present a unified front as well as to hone in on
the threat with additional guidance, we will defer this issuance
to the midnight shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Unsettled weather pattern continues in the short term period.
Frontal boundary will remain draped across the CWA at the start of
the period/early Monday, with a warm and humid air mass in place.
Boundary should slowly lift north during the day Monday, with
periods of showers and storms continuing, particularly during peak
heating hours, and from weak passing disturbances in the flow.
Plenty of instability on Monday could support an isolated severe
storm, but overall threat is low owing to a lack of decent shear.
However, PWATs on the order of 1.7 to upwards of 2 inches, along
with a relatively light steering flow of around 15 kts or less, will
continue to result in a threat for flash flooding, and headlines may
be needed for this time period particularly depending on how much
coverage/rainfall we receive on Sunday.

On Tuesday, a more potent shortwave will lift northeast through the
area. An increase in southerly flow out ahead of the wave will
result in a renewed surge of moisture to the area, with PWATs
possibly topping 2 inches. Storms should overall move a little
better on Tuesday with a slight uptick in steering flow, however,
will continue to need to monitor the situation, especially if Sunday
and Monday result in widespread areas of rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Aforementioned shortwave will lift to the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. However, additional showers and storms can be
expected on Wednesday during peak heating hours in the warm, humid,
unstable conditions. On Thursday, an upper trough, will push east
through the area, with the frontal boundary that has been located to
our north, finally sweeping through the area. A little early to say
for sure, but severe weather may be possible during this period.
Showery weather continues on Friday behind the departing trough.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 815 PM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms were gradually becoming more widely
scattered this evening, but there may still be an uptick in
showers and thunderstorms southwest to northeast ranging 092-06Z
tonight HTS to 06-08Z overnight EKN, as a weak shortwave
arrives from the west-southwest.

Thunderstorms tonight will be capable of producing locally
heavy rain which could reduce visibility briefly to IFR. Storm
motion is out of the southwest around 15-20KTs, so any
individual cell will not dwell too long over any given terminal,
although a little back-building is possible. Have largely
addressed with PROB30 TSRA, but these will likely need to be
modified as convection develops/nears.

Fog may form overnight, especially where it rains late. This is
most likely at EKN where IFR is coded 08-13Z, have MVFR mist
elsewhere overnight into early Sunday morning.

MVFR stratocumulus is likely to form overnight or early Sunday
morning, and then persist much of Sunday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous Sunday
afternoon, with all sites likely to have some impacts with
restrictions, thunder and heavy rainfall. These storms will be
slower moving, with IFR possible, and have addressed with PROB30
TSRA, except PROB30 +TSRA at CRW and BKW.

Surface flow will be calm to light and variable through the
period with low pressure parked over north-central WV on Sunday,
except light southwest at BKW. Flow aloft will be light and
variable to light south to southwest through the overnight,
becoming light cyclonic as low pressure aloft moves overhead on
Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and magnitude of impacts from
convection may vary from the forecast. Locally dense fog
possible overnight where any heavy rain falls.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SUN 06/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy dense overnight fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM