017
FXUS61 KRLX 161017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving, heavy rain showers and storms will continue
through Tuesday. Localized flooding is possible. Flow begins to
strengthen mid to late week with an uptick in severe potential.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM Monday...

Scattered showers are moving through the eastern half of the
CWA, while a lull in precipitation continues to the west.
Showers are still anticipated to become more widespread as the
day progresses.

As of 310 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Warm and humid, with showers and afternoon storms expected.
* Flash flooding remains possible due to heavy, slow moving
  showers.

Fog has been developing across the area and is expected to persist
through the early morning hours before dissipating.

After an early morning lull in precipitation, showers are once
again expected to expand in coverage amid a warm and humid
daytime environment. A few thunderstorms could also be possible
during the afternoon and evening as moderate instability
develops and shortwave energy moves overhead; however, the risk
of severe weather is low.

Much like the past couple of days, precipitable water values should
be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. In addition to producing heavy
downpours, showers today are expected to move slowly. Excessive
rainfall may prompt flash flooding; therefore, a Flood Watch
remains in effect for much of the area through this evening.

High temperatures are projected to reach upper 70s to mid 80s in
the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains today.
Temperatures remain mild tonight, with lows in the 60s across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM Monday...

By Tuesday, the quasi-stationary front will linger over our northern
sections, while an upper level short wave approaches from the west.
Abundant moisture with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and PWATs
around 2 inches (+3sd from climatology), decent CAPE and deep
layered shear around 35 knots will support showers and
thunderstorms, some with very heavy rain. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds being the main
threat.

The aforementioned shortwave will lift to the northeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Diurnal convection can still be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening with similar moisture and unstable
conditions, but less deep layered shear. SPC has the area under
a marginal risk for severe storms for both days Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 333 AM Monday...

Another but more amplified upper-level trough approaches from
the west on Thursday. The environment will remain very unstable
with SBCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg, deep layered shear exceeding 35
knots and PWATs up to 2 inches. The upper level trough will
push a cold front that will sweep the area with showers and
thunderstorms. Some storms will be strong to severe, with
damaging winds being the main threat at this point.

SPC already has parts of the area highlighted for Thursday,
with a damaging wind threat looking to be most likely.

Drier conditions are expected by the end of the week into the
weekend as a surface high pressure builds behind the departing
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 AM Monday...

While fog is expected to dissipate early this morning,
ceilings will be much slower to improve and could remain MVFR
into the afternoon at a few terminals. Rain showers will
increase in coverage during the day, with heavy downpours and a
few thunderstorms likely to create additional CIG/VIS
restrictions this afternoon and evening. Sub-VFR conditions then
carry over into the night due to lingering showers, lowering
ceilings, and some areas of fog.

Winds remain light and variable today, then become southerly tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog/stratus may persist longer than
expected this morning. Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions today may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 06/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday, and again on Thursday. Locally heavy rain
during the afternoons and evenings could yield patchy dense
overnight fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ067-075-076-085>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...20