362
FXUS61 KRNK 031059
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
559 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and clouds move out later this morning as high pressure
builds in from the west. Dry weather will continue for most of
the upcoming week. A frontal system this coming weekend will
provide the next widespread chance of rainfall. Near to above
normal temperatures are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain and clouds moving out this morning.

2) Gusty west winds develop today with below normal temperatures
for the mountains, and close to normal temperatures for the
Piedmont.

Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper closed low and
associated trough centered from WV to GA. This system was in the
process of pushing offshore this morning. The western half of
the forecast area was mostly clear, with some fog beginning to
develop. To the east, enough moisture remained for overcast
skies and rain continuing this morning east of a Martinsville to
Lynchburg line. Rain and clouds will move out of the area, and
fog will dissipate completely later this morning as high
pressure builds in from the Gulf states. This will support a
sunny day with temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s for
the mountains, and the low to even upper 60s east of the Blue
Ridge. However, gusty west winds will support daytime wind gusts
in the 20 to 30 mph range, so it feel even cooler. Tonight, dry
air and clear skies will support coolish temperatures, but wind
gusts will remain in the 15 to 25 mph range, keeping the
atmosphere mixed and temperatures from dropping more.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry period of weather

2) Gusty winds Wednesday night

A broad region of high pressure over most of the southeastern US
will suppress any active weather on Tuesday and for most of
Wednesday. Late on Wednesday a surface low will traverse the
northern Great Lakes and move into upstate New York. A trailing cold
front will move through the forecast area, but the lack of moisture
will cause it to move through as a dry front. Wind will reach above
30 MPH in some higher elevations of the mountains west of the Blue
Ridge. On Thursday behind the front, more high pressure will keep
conditions quiet.

Temperatures will be around normal, if not a few degrees above
normal for early November, where highs will be in the 60s, and in
the Piedmont reaching the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Couple quick hitting fronts bring weekend rain

 Following the mid-week dry front, synoptic conditions will become
more progressive. Broad week troughing will set up over the east
coast. Conditions will remain dry until a cold front enters the
region Saturday, bringing a round of showers for most of the
forecast area. Another front will quickly follow this up as it moves
out of the plains. This second front is progged to be stronger, so
in the coming days model runs will need to be monitored to predict
impacts to the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will remain just above normal, with a dip in
temperatures to start next week in the wake of the pair of fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Low pressure moving up the Atlantic coast this morning was
bringing light rain and some MVFR to IFR conditions to parts of
the area. All terminals except BLF and LWB were experiencing
MVFR conditions, except DAN which was at IFR. BLF and LWB were
flirting with MVFR with some additional stratus and fog in the
region. Rain was mostly affecting DAN and LYH but will move out
in the next 1-3 hours. Ceilings will remain MVFR or lower until
about 10-13Z for the aforementioned terminals before skies
become VFR and sunny everywhere as high pressure builds in.

Calm to light winds will become westerly and gusty today as the
system moves away, with gusts of 20 to 30 kts likely by late
morning through tonight. Winds will gradually decrease
overnight, but a few sites like ROA may continue to see gusts to
20 kts.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR likely throughout much of the coming week. Gusty winds
possible again by Wednesday from a mostly dry frontal passage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH