Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
163 FXUS61 KRNK 232347 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 647 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Monday. Another weather system moves through the area during midweek, with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and beyond. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 640 PM EST Sunday... Clear skies prevail across the region across all but the far western section of Greenbrier County, WV. Here some patchy mid- level cloud cover has developed over the past hour or so. As the night progresses, the potential for increased high level cloud cover is expected, especially over western sections of the region. Winds will trend light and variable, and some patchy river/mountain valley fog may develop late tonight into early Monday morning. Any fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Have made no major changes to the ongoing forecast, but did make minor adjustments to hourly temperatures, dew points, sky cover, and wind speed/gusts based upon latest conditions and expected trends into the early portion of the overnight hours. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high. As of 100 PM EST Sunday... Key Message: A drier and cooler air mass persists into Monday. We stay ridge dominated through the period with mostly clear skies. While some gusty westerlies are expected to mix down today, the sfc high center slides east of the area for Monday allowing for a south to southwesterly shift and lower magnitudes. Strong radiational cooling tonight should allow for temps to get to the freezing mark for much of the mountains and mainly mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont. Monday highs will generally reach the mid to upper 50s for the mountains and low 60s for the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Low pressure will arrive early Tuesday, resulting in periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms for the Piedmont Tuesday night. 2) Unseasonably chilly air will arrive Wednesday night in the wake of a strong cold front. Clouds will increase Monday night as a warm front associated with our next low pressure system approaches. Rain will arrive across the mountains toward dawn, and will gradually spread across the Piedmont through the morning, making for periods of light rain through the day. The first of two cold fronts will make its way across the mountains on Tuesday night, with latest data suggesting this front will be capable of triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Piedmont. Can`t rule out brief downpours, more so across the Virginia Southside into north-central North Carolina, but flooding is not anticipated. Organized rain will exit the area by around dawn Wednesday as the first cold front moves away to the east, leaving only light rain showers. The second cold front will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic during late Wednesday afternoon through the evening, bringing with it significantly cooler air associated with Canadian high pressure. May see a brief period of snow across western Greenbrier County during late Wednesday evening as temperatures drop to freezing, however moisture is not forecast to remain long enough for any snow accumulations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1240 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Dry weather is forecast through the period. 2) Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees below normal for Thursday and Friday, and will trend slightly warmer for Saturday. Expect the end of the week to remain dry as chilly Canadian high pressure over the central Plains on Thursday gradually drifts east to the Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. Among the weather challenges through the period will be another day of breezy northwest winds and low humidity on Thursday that may bring fire- related concerns to portions of the Piedmont, depending on how much rain falls on Tuesday into Wednesday. However, wind speeds will decrease for Friday and Saturday as the center of high pressure arrives. Otherwise, temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees below normal for Thursday and Friday, before trending slightly warmer for Saturday as winds shift from the south ahead of another approaching low pressure system. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 635 PM EST Sunday... The vast majority of the region can expected VFR conditions and light and variable winds which will trend southerly by Monday afternoon. The exception will be some patchy MVFR mountain/river valley fog late tonight into early Monday morning. Any sub-VFR conditions will rapidly improve to VFR after sunrise Monday. Confidence is the above aviation scenario is moderate to high. The patchy fog is the biggest question mark in regards to formation timing/location. .Extended Aviation Outlook... The next system arrives Tue to Wed evening with rain chances and sub-VFR conditions, with VFR returning Thursday. Monday through Tuesday, winds turn southerly, then veer SW Tuesday night, and become westerly and gusty Wednesday into Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...AB/DS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AB/DS