284
FXUS61 KRNK 032326
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
626 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening aviation update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through Friday as
multiple disturbances move through the area.

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday, returning
to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through
Friday as multiple disturbances move through the area.

A low pressure system currently in the Great Plains will move into
the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. The accompanying upper-level
trough will weaken and retreat north, causing the highest chance of
rainfall to be limited to along/west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday
night. Ahead of the front, southerly winds will drive in moisture
and warmer temperatures, and with the trough moving through late
Wednesday, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the western
mountains.

A brief lull then occurs on Thursday, despite the front still
remaining off to the west, due to drier air across the area. A
slight chance of showers remains possible, before another
disturbance dives down around the upper-level trough and interacts
with the cold front over our area Thursday night into Friday
morning. This will trigger redevelopment of showers and potentially
some thunderstorms along the frontal boundary and move east into the
Piedmont, bringing some much needed rain to the area.

Rain totals will be highest in the western mountains of North
Carolina and West Virginia from the first disturbance, and in the
eastern Piedmont with the second wave of rain. Totals in those areas
will be up to 1.0", with higher amounts possible in any
thunderstorms. The I-81 corridor will essentially miss out on the
heaviest rainfall in both waves, with totals expected to be around a
quarter inch. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out Wednesday
night into Thursday in the North Carolina mountains, but the risk is
low.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through
Friday, returning to near normal this weekend.

As high pressure continues to shift offshore into the Atlantic,
southerly flow will return to the Mid-Atlantic, causing temperatures
to be well above normal for this time of year. High temperatures
through the end of the week will be in the upper 60s for the
mountains, and mid to upper 70s in the Piedmont. A few spots could
even reach 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday, which is about 15
degrees above normal. Behind the cold front, temperatures "cool"
back off to only slightly above normal, with highs mainly in the
60s, with upper 50s for the highest elevations.

Overnight lows will also be very mild through the end of the week,
in the 50s/60s Wednesday night. By Saturday night, overnight lows
fall into the 30s area-wide, which is around normal. This continues
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure currently dominating the area will drift offshore
tonight, opening the door for southerly return flow to funnel
fresh moisture across the region. A blanket of stratocumulus
will gradually spread overhead, beginning with VFR ceilings
before deteriorating into marginal conditions by Wednesday
morning. Rising dewpoints will steadily saturate the lowest
levels of the atmosphere, allowing patches of light fog and mist
to settle overnight into the early daylight hours along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, though the exact extent and
density of the restriction remain the primary point of
uncertainty. Meanwhile, gentle breezes under ten knots will
persist east of the mountains through the dark hours, while a
tightening pressure gradient across the western Appalachian
slopes stirs stronger winds western slopes. Gusts reaching
between 18 and 23 knots will become routine around KBLF in the
pre-dawn hours, heralding an increasingly active and turbulent
Wednesday across the higher terrain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will sweep from west to east across the region
late Wednesday into Thursday, spreading widespread rainfall
along its path and likely dropping flight conditions below
visual thresholds. Even after the boundary pushes through,
lingering showers will persist on Friday to keep overcast skies
and periodic flight restrictions in place. The damp weather will
finally surrender to drier air by Saturday, allowing skies to
clear just in time for a pleasant, calm weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...PM/RCS