875
FXUS61 KRNK 290653
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
253 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecasts have been updated.

Little to no change in the overall forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and trending milder through Friday followed by a
return to isolated to scattered showers through the weekend and into
early next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and trending milder through Friday followed by a
return to isolated to scattered showers through the weekend and into
early next week.

The closed low which has been situated off the NY/NJ coast the past
few days will begin making better headway northeast today as an open
wave. By late tonight, this feature is expected to be centered just
south of the Canadian Maritimes. In response, upper level ridging is
expected to take place over the Appalachians. What was has been
generally a northerly flow pattern across our region will
transition to southwest tonight. The result will be a loss of
the low- to mid- level cloud shield which has been blanketing
much of the eastern half of our region.

Increasing heights and the onset of warm air advection will yield
progressively milder temperatures across the region through
Thursday and Friday.

As we reach Friday, the center of the upper ridge is expected to be
shunted southeast of the region with the approach of a cold front.
This front may bring isolated showers to the far western
sections of the region as early as late friday afternoon.
However, chances will increase Friday night into Saturday as
the front moves into, and perhaps stalls over our region.

Timing and impact are still low on the confidence meter, but
moisture from what now is Hurricane Polo over southern Baja
California, may have progressed across southern CONUS by early next
weekend to interact with this front. As such, rainfall amounts,
coverage and duration across our region may be impacted. To add
to the timing/impact/interaction question mark, a northern
stream shortwave trough may bring a reinforcing cold front to
our area by late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Area of low end VFR stratocu clouds continue over much of the region
with pockets of MVFR across the mountains. Cloud cover is expected
to gradually decrease heading into and through Tuesday morning.
Where cloud cover is the least, we still could see some pockets
of sub-VFR fog/mist by daybreak, buy any should last long after
sunrise.

Surface winds will remain generally light and variable. Off the
surface, a northerly wind will trend southerly, especially by
tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Primarily VFR conditions expected through Friday.

Better chances of sub-VFR conditions through the weekend into
early next week as precipitation become more probable.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DS