Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 290058
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
858 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in from the Gulf Coast states
tonight and Friday with gusty northwest winds. A backdoor front
edges south toward the area Easter Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Wind Advisory Issued

A Wind Advisory has been issued for part of southeast West
Virginia and southwest Virginia from late tonight through
Friday.

Guidance continues to show a low level northwest jet with 850 mb
wind speeds increasing into the 45 to 55 knot range Friday
morning. The strongest surface winds are expected once mixing
begins on Friday (around 10AM) into the mid afternoon and at the
highest elevations.

Made slight adjustments to temperature forecast overnight. Wind
speeds will lower slightly for the rest of the evening so the
best cooling will be before the mid and high clouds arriver with
the short wave approaching from the Ohio Valley. Isolated
showers are possible in southeast West Virginia as early as
06Z/2AM.


Previous Discussion
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

As the coastal low and associated precip propagates NEWD off the mid-
Atlantic, dry ridging is pushing into the area on it`s heels. So far
the western majority of the area has mostly scattered out of lower
cloud coverage given the subsidence and the Piedmont should soon
follow suit in the next several hours leaving just some cirrus
skirting across and some NW enhanced gradient winds kicking in.

A weak upper disturbance looks to traverse near the northern part of
the CWA late tonight into Friday morning. This feature along with
some upslope flow should allow for increased cloud coverage in parts
of the west and north along with a slight to low end chance of some
showers in the far north. Cooling low level thermal profiles may
even allow for light snow transitioning in the far north as well but
not expecting accumulations/impacts.

Otherwise Friday should be a mostly sunny with temps moderating
warmer...even upper 60s across the Piedmont...though the NW winds
should get stronger magnitudes. While most of the area looks to
largely stay a bit lower than wind advisory criteria, there are a
few locations in the mountains where there is a decent chance of
reaching gust criteria of greater than 45 mph based on the
probability of exceedance for the HREF grand ensemble. Will hold off
on issuance for now but it warrants keeping an eye on in future
updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Breezy weekend

2: Rain sinks south into the area Sunday

This weekend we will be situated between a large dome of surface
high pressure and a developing weak front to our north. Throughout
the day Saturday the center of the high will slowly slide south and
offshore. This will allow the front to sag south into our area by
Saturday night. Showers will develop along the front, reaching as
far south as the VA/NC state line. Unlikely that anyone in the
foothills of NC or the Piedmont will receive rain this week. It will
be overcast though. The heaviest rain will remain centered around
the I-64 corridor. There is potential for an isolated thunderstorm
in that area as well, but for now a clap of thunder would be the
exception rather than the rule.

Despite the cloudy/rainy conditions, it will be quite warm this
weekend. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled and potentially convective weather

A strong, well developed system will track east out of the plains
and bring an extended period of showers and potentially
thunderstorms to our area next week. With a deep trough overhead,
there is support for convection development pretty much throughout
every level of the atmosphere Tuesday through Thursday. The timing
of this trough is still up for consideration, hence the wide
goalposts of Tuesday through Thursday. When it comes through, it
looks to be one of the strongest frontal systems we`ve seen this
spring. This could be the first set up for widespread thunderstorms
yet this Spring, but that`s speaking only in terms of potential.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Thursday...

Short wave over the Ohio Valley will track across the Mid
Atlantic region overnight and Friday morning. There will
isolated to scattered rain and snow showers on the western
slopes of the Appalachians in eastern West Virginia. Clouds will
fill in from the west after 04Z/midnight and ceilings will lower
but remain VFR on Friday. 3km NAM Bufkit forecast soundings
suggest MVFR ceilings are possible at KLWB and KBLF Friday
morning but confidence is low. The strongest upslope wind will
be from 06Z/2AM through 18Z/2PM.

Mid level clouds will spill across the Blue Ridge into the
foothills and piedmont after 12Z/8AM but any precipitation will
be confined to the mountains.

Wind gusts will be mainly in the 25 to 35 knot range with up to
40 knots at the very highest elevations during the morning.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another front approaches from the north this weekend bringing
another chance of showers and possible sub-VFR conditions,
moreso over the mountains. Better chance for sub-VFR with
showers, possible storms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ011-014-
     017>020-022>024-033>035.
NC...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/AB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/AB


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