763
FXUS63 KSGF 151719
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1119 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures are in jeopardy across the area
  today, as temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

- 30-40% rain chances on Monday east of Highway 65, with less
  rain chances (10-20%) west of Highway 65.

- Higher rain chances (>50%) then return by the middle to end
  of next week as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  will be possible across portions of area at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

An upper-level ridge and warm air mass are currently in place
across the region early this morning. Lows this morning will
only cool into the upper 50s to the lower 60s, which are closer
to normal highs for this time of year. Southerly winds will
occur across the area this morning into this afternoon, and will
increase some after sunrise with gusts up to around 20 to 25
mph at times.

An upper-level trough is currently moving across the Northern
Plains early this morning and will move east into the Great
Lakes region today. The trough will send a cold front south
through the area this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the
front, a warm air mass for November will remain in place across
the area as 850mb temperatures will be in the 19 to 21C range.
Warm conditions will occur across the area today as highs warm
into the upper 70s to the lower 80s as dewpoints will be in the
middle to upper 50s ahead of the front.

Some record highs will be in jeopardy today as highs will be 15
to 25 degrees above normal. Some morning high clouds will move
across portions of the area this morning but should thin out
through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will not cool much,
if any, directly behind the front this afternoon/early evening
as temperatures remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the
afternoon hours. Winds will switch to the north to northwest
behind the front but will be weaker than the southerly winds
ahead of the front.

A drier air mass will start to advect south into the far
northwestern portions of the area this afternoon (Fort Scott,
KS to Nevada, MO areas) where RH values around 35% will be
possible. Winds will be weaker within these drier conditions. A
dry air mass is in place in the mid-levels of the atmosphere
which will result in the front moving through the area dry
today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The upper-level ridge will push back to the west into the
Plains tonight into Sunday as a cooler and drier air mass
advects into the region tonight into Sunday from the northeast.
Lows tonight into Sunday morning will cool into the 40s. Highs
on Sunday will likely range from the lower 60s across central
Missouri to the the lower 70s across far southwestern Missouri
and extreme southeastern Kansas Sunday afternoon as the area
will be located behind an upper-level trough to the east and an
upper-level ridge to the west.

An upper-level low is current located off the southern West
Coast early this morning. The low will not move much today as
the upper-level ridge will be in place across the Plains.
Another upper-level trough will begin to push south across the
West Coast on Sunday and will start to push the low to the east
as a shortwave trough. The upper-level ridge will begin to move
back to the east Sunday night into Monday, but with the trough
across the East Coast, the ridge will remain over the central
U.S. As a result, the shortwave trough will move northeast
across the Plains Sunday night and off to the east/northeast on
Monday. The ensemble model members are trending further north
with the shortwave trough on Monday, which makes sense with longwave
upper-level ridging over the central U.S. There are still slight
differences in the path from the northern Missouri to
Minnesota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible, mainly east of Highway 65 if not east of Highway 63
with this system. The better upper-level support now trending
to remain north of the area this will limit coverage with this
system.

A warm front will move north into the area Monday into Monday
night, which will support warmer conditions occurring across the
area on Monday. The ensemble model members are now coming into
better agreement, as they trend towards the northern track,
with highs warming into the 70s again on Tuesday. It`s possible
some record highs could be approached on Tuesday.

Another upper-level trough will move into the southwestern
CONUS by the middle of next week, leaving the region in an
upper-level southwest flow pattern. Moisture will start to
increase across the region in the southwest flow. The warm front
that will lift north through the area Monday night will shift
back to the south and stall across the area. The front and
energy moving off the upper-level trough to the east will
result in showers and thunderstorms developing at times on
Wednesday, still questions on the exact location of the front
and coverage of this leading convection.

The upper-level trough will then move to the east late next
week, sending a surface low and front through the area on
Thursday into Thursday night. The models are coming into better
agreement with the system, but there are still some differences
on the exact track and timing. There could be the potential for
some locally heavy rainfall with this system. The models are
also trending further north, which could also result in at least
some potential for some strong thunderstorms on Thursday if
enough instability can develop ahead of the front. Models are
trending drier on Friday as they bring the front through
Thursday/Thursday night, but some wrap around light rain could
linger into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will persist through the
TAF period with passing high clouds. There will be a wind shift
to the west this afternoon and then north this evening. Winds
will be the strongest this afternoon and then decreasing
tonight. No precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 57-60 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

Saturday November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955
KUNO: 81/1955

Tuesday November 18:
KSGF: 78/1930
KJLN: 76/1999
KVIH: 74/1981
KUNO: 74/2017

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Wise