506
FXUS63 KSGF 232336
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures through Friday with shower and
  thunderstorm chances (40-70%) Thursday night through Saturday
  morning. Localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash
  flooding will be possible across central and south-central MO.

- Heat is expected to return to the region on Sunday into early
  next week. Increasing confidence for highs in the middle 90s
  to near 100, with heat index values around 100 to 110 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A decently strong low-level jet is forcing a weak complex of
thunderstorms across southeast Kansas this morning. This has brought
some light rain to the western portion of our area, but this is
expected to be the extent of its impact beyond a very low chance for
a stray lightning flash. This activity is weakening dramatically as
the 700mb jet decreases in strength and instability drops off
quickly to its east.

Light easterly winds and cloud cover are keeping temperatures low
today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Our location on the
transition between an upper level trough and ridge is creating
a mild zonal pattern for the Ozarks for a few days, which will
allow us to enjoy light winds, cooler temperatures, and some
precipitation moving over the ridge with pockets of energy.

While most stay dry today, the low-level jet ramps up again tomorrow
morning, overspreading an area of intense moisture brought into the
area by a warm front to the south. PWAT values are landing in the
99th percentile to near the maximum value in the M-climate. This
juicy atmosphere combined with the potential for training storms (as
the CAMs are suggesting) will result in the potential for flash
flooding. WPC has outlined most of the area in a Marginal risk
for flash flooding tomorrow with a Slight risk over the northern
third or so over the area, toward central Missouri. Northern
and central Missouri will see precipitation for a longer period
of time, beginning around 3am, while our area in southern
Missouri will start to see scattered activity closer to sunrise.
The centroid of the system (with better precipitation coverage)
will start to round the bend of the LLJ mid-afternoon and make
its way southeast through our area. While placement of the axis
of heaviest precipitation is wavering a bit between model runs,
the general area looks to be east of Hwy 65 as the rain moves
south. Areas north of Hwy 54 will also see a local maximum in
rainfall totals due to longer residence time of the
precipitation, hence the WPC Slight risk in that area. Around
1-3 inches can be expected in these areas with lighter
accumulations elsewhere.

While 1 hour flash flood guidance is generally above 2.50 inches in
most areas, there are small pockets east of Hwy 65 that are lower,
especially due to recent heavy rains. These areas will be monitored
closely for flash flooding dangers throughout the day Friday as well
as overnight into Saturday morning.

Due to the relative lack of precipitation and cloud cover, the
western half of the area will be warmer over the next couple of
days with highs up to 10 degrees warmer than areas in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As the upper ridge begins to move our way in earnest and SSWly flow
ramps up, we will once again see a strong warming trend to near
record summer heat. Highs Sunday through at least Tuesday reach 100
across nearly the entire area with Heat Index values up to 110. The
NWS HeatRisk tool shows the entire forecast area in Major to Extreme
for early next week, with some areas in the west only cooling to
around 80 overnight.

Once precipitation Friday night comes to end end throughout
Saturday morning, additional precipitation is not expected for
the rest of the forecast period. Long term outlooks indicate
best chances for near-normal temperatures and precipitation to
start August, which would put highs around 90 and up to an inch
of rain in a seven day period. While the ridge looks to stick
around for a while, it appears we may be lucky to remain close
enough to the periphery to benefit from some stray energy for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Roughly 30% chances for showers and storms exists on Friday
afternoon and evening. There is also a 15-20% chance Friday
morning, but left those lower probability showers out of the
forecast for now. Otherwise, look for predominantly VFR
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Titus