856
FXUS63 KSGF 290446
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be
  around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (30-50%) Friday
  night through Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany
  this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early next
  week but there is still considerable uncertainty with this
  potential system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Continued warm and dry conditions through Thursday as 850mb
temps remain around 13-15C, resulting in high temps in the upper
70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s.

There is less than a 15% chance for showers over far southeast
KS Thursday afternoon/evening if a weak disturbance can kick off
any convection, but the forecast remains dry for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

As an upper ridge shifts east of the area and deep troughing
moves into the western CONUS this weekend, mid to upper level
diffluence and shortwave energy will result in scattered showers
and perhaps some thunderstorms. Coverage and amounts of rainfall
have decreased slightly in recent model runs. Some areas may
remain dry through the entire event, while others see scattered
light rainfall but not all day washouts. Friday evening into
Friday night will see 15-30% rain chances over the northwestern
CWA. Greatest coverage/chances are Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night at 30-50%. Deterministic forecast rainfall
amounts are currently 0.00-0.12 inches, with NBM probabilities
for >=0.10 inches only at 30-50%.

Friday will continue to be very warm with highs in the upper 70s
to around 80, but Saturday will see highs in the low to mid 70s.

Early to middle of next week will see potential for widespread
rainfall and cooler temperatures closer to normal. This is due
to ensembles showing a deep mid level system moving into the
central CONUS. However, model spread is still significant with
this, which makes sense given the current location of the wave
is well west of Alaska and has a substantial amount of evolution
to undergo as it interacts with additional waves before moving
into the CONUS. Ensemble clusters are showing little preference
for one scenario over another, with differences in timing,
strength, and track. Outcomes generally range from a strong
closed low moving into the area (worst case:
Widespread rain, thunderstorms, maybe a severe and flooding
risk) to a weaker, positively tiled upper wave (best case:
Scattered showers and storms). Model blend results in 50-70%
chances for showers and storms Monday into Wednesday.
Confidence is too low to discuss specifics, but those with
interest should continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds will increase across the area Thursday morning. There is
a low chance a brief period of MVFR ceiling occur, but mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. South to
southeasterly winds will occur tonight and will become south to
southwesterly Thursday morning and afternoon generally between 5
and 10kt.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Wise