977
FXUS63 KSGF 170515
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1115 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures 60s Monday then returning to well
  above normal again Tuesday with highs climbing well into the
  70s...then falling into the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible (20-40%) at times Monday through early Tuesday
  morning. Not all locations will be affected by this activity.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur Wednesday
  into Friday as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A short term concern exists into this evening as relative
humidities have dropped into the teens across central MO (
25-35% elsewhere)...raising a concern for fire starts. Winds
however are less than 10 mph which will minimize the spread of
any fire starts.

Highlighting the weather pattern this afternoon is surface high
pressure centered over Iowa and an upper level ridge that
angles from the southern Plains to the northern
Rockies...leading to mild sunny weather today.

A closed upper low over the central California/Nevada border will
cross the Rockies tonight and flatten the upper ridge as it tracks
across Nebraska into Iowa on its way into the Great Lakes. A surface
low will evolve south of the path of the upper low...returning a
warm front northward overnight into Monday and a chance for rain
late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday

Rainfall with this system: a tenth to a quarter inch with many not
seeing little to no rainfall.

Winds will begin to shift more southerly overnight raising surface
dew points but low levels will remain dry as evident by forecast
soundings that yield Precipital Water at 0.5-0.75. Lift will
also be a question as upper level diffluence will be best west
and north of forecast area though some positive lift is evident
as isentropic/warm advection tracks into the region. So
anticipate isolated late Monday afternoon showers to become
scattered at best overnight.

Questions concerning the amount of instability remain with elevated
level instability (as measured through Most Unstable or MUCAPE) from
some 00/06z models depicting limited to no instability and
others nearly a thousand j/kg which would be enough for hail to
the size of pennies with the strongest storms. However even the
models with the higher MUCAPES trended lower further minimizing
the threat for strong storms. Given the strong H8 warm advection
and 295-300K Theta E slantwise lift, the region to see some
lightning with somewhat better chances south of I-44 but the
severe storm threat is diminished.

Temperatures Monday: a bit cooler but still a few degrees above
normal with highs 60-65.

After unseasonably hot weather Friday and Saturday, temperatures
today struggled to reach the mid to upper 60s and the mercury Monday
will be furthered tempered by clouds and the prospect of light
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Any remaining rainfall will be ending early Tuesday over the eastern
Ozarks as the storm system exits into the Great Lakes...leaving the
region on the edge of a flattened upper ridge.  850 mph temperatures
look to remain in the 12-15C range leading to unseasonably warm high
temperatures in a gradient that ranges from the lower 70s over
central MO to near 80 closer to the Arkansas border.

A second much more potent storm system will take a more southerly
track out of southern California into the southern Plains Wednesday.

While models generally agree in bringing this system east leading to
a widespread chance of rain, there are timing and latitudinal
differences which impact rainfall character and overall amounts
through at least Friday.

12z NBM model 25th-75th QPF percentiles point toward at least 0.75
inches and some models in excess of 2 inches from late Wednesday
into Friday which is a downward trend from previous runs.
Precipital water will climb ahead of this system with lift
provided by diffluence plus a strong upper level jet with the
system itself...potentially magnified by coupling with an even
strong northern stream wave. Best lift and associated rainfall
at this time will be Thursday...with rain chances lingering into
Friday.

Looking even further out, there is the suggestion that the upper air
pattern will remain active with waves rotating through the western
trough resulting in additional precipitation chances, possibly as
early as Sunday with additional chances to follow.

Temperatures will trend colder during the period with highs falling
from near 70 Wednesday to closer to 50 Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will occur across the area overnight under mostly
clear skies. A warm front will lift northeast through the area
Monday, gusty southeasterly winds will occur behind the front.
Clouds will increase across the area behind the front and some
MVFR ceilings will be possible as early as late morning and
linger through the evening hours especially across the eastern
Ozarks including the KSGF and KBBG sites. There could also be
some isolated showers and storms as early as mid morning into
the afternoon hours but coverage will be limited and not all
locations will be affected. Low level wind shear will also be
possible across the TAF sites Monday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 55-59 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

November 18:
KSGF: 78/1930
KJLN: 76/1999
KVIH: 74/1981
KUNO: 74/2017

November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise