771
FXUS63 KSGF 072026
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will
  continue through Saturday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower
  70s.

- Gusty winds Saturday into Sunday.

- Much colder conditions early Sunday into early Tuesday. Highs
  in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills mainly in the
  teens early Monday.

- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on
  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 226 PM
CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Water vapor imagery nicely shows the location of an upper-level
shortwave trough axis centered over Missouri early this
afternoon. The 12Z SGF sounding depicted a deep 850-500 mb dry
layer aloft which has kept skies clear behind last night`s
front. We have lowered dew points (and therefore relative
humidities) slightly to better match with observational trends
and point forecast soundings suggesting moderate mixing
potential. Minimum RHs of 30-40% will be common, perhaps
locally down to 25%. However, fairly weak winds throughout the
depth of the mixed layer will limit our fire danger this
afternoon.

The forecast looks to stay dry until a clipper vamooses out of
Canada and into Iowa and northern Missouri by Saturday afternoon.
Models tend to keep most if not all precipitation just north
and east of our CWA as is pretty common with these clipper-like
systems, but we can`t totally rule out some light showers across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Cold air advection, a tightening pressure gradient, and moderate
mixing will allow for breezy southwest to northwest winds to
develop on Saturday. Thus, we have continued to nudge winds
closer toward the NBM 90th percentile, which supports common
gusts of 25-35 mph with occasional gusts near 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Cold Satruday Night through Monday:
Perhaps of greater impact from the arrival of Saturday`s
clipper system will be the much colder arctic airmass that moves
in behind the attendant cold front. Model guidance has
continued to trend slightly earlier with the passage of the
front, bringing the boundary through the Missouri Ozarks late
afternoon and evening. Most if not all locations across the CWA
will likely still reach (seasonably) warm diurnal highs in the
upper 60s and low 70s before the frontal passage.

However, as the aforementioned upper-level trough digs, a
secondary vorticity lobe and cold front are progged to dive
through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Extended
reaches of the RAP depict fairly widespread negative (upward)
omega along with an increasingly saturated low-level profile.
Some of the hi-res guidance even break out some very light QPF
with it as well, so isolated to scattered sprinkles and light
flurries will be possible. Temperatures are currently forecast
to be in the mid 30s, and the coldest temperatures are north of
I-44 and the valleys of the eastern Ozarks. We are not expecting
anything in the way of accumulation with this precipitation.

Despite clearing cloud cover on Sunday, the arctic airmass will
remain in place, so temperatures are only expected to climb into
the upper 30s to lower 40s in the afternoon. Sunday night will
feature the coldest conditions of the forecast period. Air
temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 20s, and with
northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph, wind chills in the teens to
upper single digits are likely. The cold will linger through
Monday night as the trough takes its time moving east.

Fire Danger on Tuesday:
Ensemble guidance depicts the offending upper-level trough
finally shifting east out of influence for the region on
Tuesday. In its place, a warmer airmass will begin advecting
into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Concurrently, a
tightening surface pressure gradient will produce increasingly
gusty southwest winds. The latest NBM probabilities of sustained
winds greater than 20 mph are highest (50-80%) across far
western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Looking at the big
picture, the first day of strong southwest winds can often
result in increased fire danger across the Ozarks as moisture
advection lags behind the warmer air. Furthermore, much of the
vegetation will be dead after the early week cold snap, which
may provide dry fuels for any fire starts. Exact forecast wind
speeds, temperatures, and relative humidities will likely
fluctuate over the next few days, but Tuesday will be a day to
watch for fire danger.

Seasonably Warm Wednesday and Beyond:
While ensemble clusters disagree on the details, they generally
show the aforementioned ridge across the western CONUS slowly
expanding east through the middle of the week. NBM spreads
support highs generally in the 60s to near 70 degrees Wednesday
through Friday.

Additionally, the CPC 8-14 day outlook favors above-average
temperatures in the November 15-21 period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Mid and high
level clouds will develop after sunset, but no changes in flight
category are expected.

Northwest winds between 5-10 kt will become light and turn more
southerly overnight. Winds will increase again toward the end of
the TAF period as an upper-level disturbance shifts southeast
through Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio