167
FXUS63 KSGF 050846
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog/freezing fog could form tonight especially for
  areas along and west of Highway 65. Use caution if traveling
  tonight.

- Low precipitation chances 10-20% Saturday night into Sunday
  morning across central Missouri. Light amounts expected, with
  an 80-95% chance of <0.1 inches of rain.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal
  temperatures into next week. Average highs for this time
  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather
  accompanies this pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A surface low pressure system will continue to move through the
Great Lakes region today which will cause our winds to shift out
of the southwest and become breezy by this afternoon with wind
gusts up to 25 mph especially near the I-49 corridor and central
MO. Sunny skies are expected today with highs reaching the mid
40s by this afternoon. Friday night will feature a few more
clouds but perhaps some fog as well. Model guidance has shown a
signal for fog formation especially for areas along and west of
Highway 65. The SREF, RAP, and HREF have shown lowered
visibilities tonight with HREF showing a 70% chance of <1/4 mi
vis occurring towards eastern KS and far SW MO. This is likely
due to the moisture return we will see thanks to southerly flow
returning for most of the day. If fog does form tonight, there
could be pockets of dense fog and freezing fog. Though, due to
the cloud cover increasing tonight and timing of diminishing
winds, the uncertainty is still too high to issue any advisories
at this time. If the signal continues through the day, there is
potential for a freezing fog/dense fog advisory to be issued
for tonight. Again, freezing fog doesn`t have to be dense to be
impactful. Elevated surfaces and roads may become icy if this
scenario does occur. Either way, if traveling later tonight use
caution and be sure to know the forecast before you go.
(weather.gov/sgf)

Saturday will feature another shortwave disturbance but it won`t
bring much to our area and we will likely stay dry. Chances of
precipitation continue to trend downward and stay further north
near NE MO. There is at least one weather phenomena that could
occur that often gets missed due to negligible precipitation
accumulation and that`s freezing drizzle. Freezing drizzle can
often times occur on the backside of fronts or shortwaves that
move through due to the decent amount of lift and low-level
moisture present. Right now, there isn`t a signal for frozen
precipitation on Saturday night, but we`ll continue to monitor
for that potential. Low precipitation chances 10-20% Saturday
night into Sunday morning across central Missouri. Light
amounts expected, with an 80-95% chance of <0.1 inches of rain.
This pattern seems to be in place for the next few days. The
next couple of waves that come through look to take the northern
track and will leave us dry but will still bring in a shot of
cooler air every few days. Saturday will feel pretty warm with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with partly sunny skies.
Clouds continue to filter in through the day and Saturday night
will be mostly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Another front moves through Saturday night/Sunday morning but
we will remain dry. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s
to lower 40s across the area with breezy northerly winds gusting
up to 25 mph and mostly cloudy skies.

Monday-Thursday: Southerly flow returns on Monday and high
temperatures slowly warm back up for the middle of next week.
Highs on Monday will be in the 40s while Tuesday and Wednesday
could feature highs in the lower 50s. Towards the end of the
forecast period it seems that another front wants to move
through late Wednesday which would bring highs on Thursday into
the 30s and 40s. Though, the timing of the front is still in
question as model guidance is showing almost a 10 degree
temperature spread for Thursday`s highs. No precipitation is
forecast to occur with that frontal passage at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR through the period with winds turning southwesterly on
Friday and becoming breezy in the afternoon gusting up to 20
knots. Skies will be clear for the rest of tonight, then high clouds
return by Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria