733
FXUS63 KSGF 182301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
501 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal to record high temperatures will be possible
  this afternoon.

- Areas of fog will be possible tonight...especially over the
  eastern 2/3 of the forecast area.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times
  from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Current conditions and synoptic overview: An upper low was
pushing east out of Iowa into the upper Great Lakes region,
while a secondary low continues to spin along the west coast of
southern California. A surface warm front lifted through the
area earlier this morning and a trailing cold front was starting
to push east over the western CWA. Temperatures were ranging
from the low to mid 70s across the area ahead of the cold front.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: The cold front will continue
to shift east across the remainder of the area this afternoon
into the early evening. Temperatures ahead of the front will
continue into the mid to upper 70s...possibly even 80 degrees
which may approach or break record highs for today. Gusty
southwest winds ahead of the front will become northwesterly
behind the front, but should diminish quickly this evening. CAMS
and global models are showing signs for fog development,
especially over the eastern 2/3 of the CWA late tonight and have
continued that trend from previous forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Widespread rain Wednesday night through Friday: The upper low
off the California coast will begin to edge eastward as a
secondary low begins to push into the west coast. The first low
will start to become more of an open wave as it shifts east over
Baja, northern Mexico and Arizona on Wednesday. Gulf moisture
will start to increase ahead of the low by late Wednesday over
the area. By Wednesday night, ensemble data is showing PW`s
ranging from 1.3 to 1.5" Wednesday night through about midday
Friday which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Synoptic scale lifting will occur as energy from the upper
wave lifts northeast into the area during this time frame and
will combine with weak instability for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Present indications are for widespread 1.5" to
2.3" of rainfall from Wednesday night through Friday before the
upper wave shifts out of the area and precipitation ends on
Friday night. The several rounds of heavy rain may lead to some
localized flooding over the area...especially in locations with
that receive repeat heavy rain.

After a mainly dry Saturday and Sunday, the secondary upper low
will begin to lift into the area early next week. There are
still some timing issues with the models, so exact time is still
some lower confidence in the exact timing of the next round of
precipitation, but it appears this system may also bring the
potential of some heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 454 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of this evening
and into tonight. There`s a good signal for fog
developing/impacting KSGF and KBBG late tonight beginning around
11Z and persisting through ~15Z, with the higher impacts at KSGF
where visibilities are progged to drop below 1SM. Kept KBBG at
1SM visibilities for now, but may need to lower that for the 06Z
forecast depending on model trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will return after the fog dissipates around 15Z, with light and
variable winds expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the
55-59 degree range. Average low temps for middle November are in
the 34-36 degree range.


Tuesday November 18:

Record High Temperatures:             Forecast:

KSGF: 78/1930                             76
KJLN: 76/1999                             75
KVIH: 74/1981                             74
KUNO: 74/2017                             80



Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

November 20:       Forecast:
KUNO: 52/2007   55

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Camden