164
FXUS63 KSGF 191128
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
528 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will be possible this morning...especially over
  the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area. Fog may be locally dense
  (visibility <1/4 mi) in parts of central Missouri.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times
  from late tonight into Friday as showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

- Widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of rain are expected with this late
  week system, with some areas seeing 2.5 to 3 inches of rain.
  Flash flooding may occur with embedded areas of intense
  rainfall rates, but widespread flooding is not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Current Conditions/Synoptic Overview:
00Z upper air observations indicate that a deep trough extends
from western Canada down to southern California, where a closed
upper-level low has pushed into the Mojave Desert. Localized
surface high pressure has spread across the lower Missouri
Valley under a shortwave ridge, with a stalled boundary to our
south bisecting Arkansas.

Early Morning Fog:
Fog is developing across central Missouri early this morning,
and with low (<4 degree) dew point depressions continuing to
decrease, fog will continue developing further and further south
into the morning hours. A signal for lowered visibility along
the spine of the plateau (roughly Springfield-Seymour-Houston-
Salem line) is also starting to become more pronounced as
overnight CAMs start to come into better agreement. Central
Missouri will see the most dense (local areas < 1/4 SM
visibility) fog and is where fog will persist the longest, but
even further southwest, foggy conditions may linger until 9 AM
local time. Need for a Dense Fog Advisory will be monitored, but
issuance is not expected at this time due to lack of confidence
in widespread impacts.

Thunderstorms Late Tonight:
This afternoon, high pressure over the Gulf Coast will push us
into southwesterly flow and begin transporting prolific moisture
from the southern Plains into our area. This moisture will be
nearly triple what we currently have, bringing us from PWs
around 0.5" (our 00Z 11/19 sounding value) to values of
1.3-1.5", which is more than the average moisture we see in even
our most humid months (July/August, ~1.38" highest average
climatological value). The low over the Mojave Desert will
slowly dig into Baja California into tonight as a robust 300mb
jet streak develops, sending surges of vorticity northeastward
into the southern Plains. The CVA advection will bring showers
and thunderstorms first to Texas this evening and then across
Oklahoma into the Ozarks late tonight.

Rain will move through MoKsArOk and into central Missouri late
tonight (early Thursday morning, really) with PoPs increasing
above 50% in far SW Missouri around midnight. PoPs spread across
the entire forecast area and increase to widespread 75-95%
chances by 6 AM Thursday.

Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with the
elevated nature lending itself to a marginal severe hail threat
up to the size of quarters through the early morning hours
(12AM-6AM) on Thursday, when MUCAPE peaks around 1000 J/kg. Not
overly impressed with the hail threat, given tall and skinny
CAPE profiles with freezing levels ~12kft and a very narrow
window of serviceable mid-level lapse rates. Regardless, the
conditional threat is present for some elevated hailers if
strong updrafts can develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Severe threat Thursday:
After the early morning hours on Thursday, severe weather threat
looks to be pretty slim the rest of the day with <1000 J/kg of
CAPE available, so run-of-the-mill showers and thunderstorms
remain the expectation after Thursday morning.

Rainfall Amounts/Flooding Threat:
Precipitation amounts trended up slightly for a localized
corridor of the forecast area, and are currently falling between
the NBM 50th and 75th percentile. Most locations will receive at
least 1-1.5" with some places seeing as much as 3". The
corridor of highest rainfall amounts will continue to be
narrowed down in the subsequent forecast cycle, but overall
confidence in amounts and location are increasing.

Flooding threat is primarily rate-driven for localized areas
that experience multiple rounds of convective rainfall in a
short time period. Training storms are possible, which could
increase rainfall totals in shorter time periods. 6 hour flash
flood guidance in southern Missouri is 2.75-3", but antecedent
dry conditions should keep widespread flash flooding at bay.
However, there could be an increased risk of flooding at low-
water crossings and in urban areas.

Once rain begins early Thursday morning, it appears that it will
continue fairly consistently through at least Friday morning as
the front to our south begins to lift back north again. The
shortwave will weaken as it lifts through the Plains and
assimilates into the synoptic flow by Friday night. A cold
frontal passage on Friday will bring drier air and an end to the
rain, though the timing of the frontal passage is still up in
the air a bit. Areas in the northern CWA have more variability
in highs on Friday as a result (10 degree spread, give or take).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Took fog entirely out of the 12Z TAFs (big shift in forecast)
as high clouds seem to have kept temperatures 1-2 degrees warmer
than forecast, which was enough to make the difference between
pretty dense fog and just shallow ground fog. Regionally, fog is
quite dense in central Missouri, but TAF sites seem to be on
track to avoid impacts.

Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions today with a high cloud deck
setting up through the afternoon. Light and variable winds
through the period.

Around 06Z on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will move in
from northeast Oklahoma from southwest to northeast. High
confidence KJLN will be affected first and in visibility
reduction due to heavy rainfall, with lesser confidence on
timing and rainfall intensity at the other two TAF sites.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the
55-59 degree range. Average low temps for middle November are in
the 34-36 degree range.

Yesterday, November 18, saw two broken records. Vichy-Rolla set
a record high temperature of 75 degrees, beating the old record
of 74 that was set in 1981. West Plains reached 81 degrees,
smashing the 2001 record of 74 degrees.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden