310
FXUS64 KSHV 240025
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
725 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible across our south tonight,
   and across our north and east through the day tomorrow. A few
   storms may become strong to severe.

 - The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire tonight for some of
   our south Arkansas counties, remaining in effect through
   tomorrow evening elsewhere.

 - Central Louisiana may see more strong to severe storms Monday.
   Warm conditions with occasional showers and storms will
   continue through the remainder of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Aside from a few very spotty showers in east Texas, this morning`s
rainfall has diminished, and the afternoon looks to remain mostly
dry areawide. Short range CAMs continue to show some isolated
showers and storms across our southernmost zones near the Toledo
Bend Country this evening, with a few potentially becoming strong,
but confidence in location of impacts is still limited at this
writing. Any storms that do develop should diminish quickly after
sunset.

The remainder of the night should remain dry areawide, with the next
rainfall chances arriving tomorrow morning and remaining confined to
our northeasternmost zones, from Hope along the I-30 corridor of
Arkansas into north central Louisiana, including Monroe and Jena.
These rainfall chances will continue through the day and into the
evening and overnight hours. The SPC is highlighting an increased
chance of strong to severe storms producing damaging wind gusts,
with the highest risk largely southeast of the ArkLaTex, as these
storms track down the lower Mississippi Valley.

The impacts of this anticipated rainfall and the associated cloud
cover on the temperature forecast has prompted an adjustment to our
heat headlines. For Union, Nevada, Howard, Columbia and Hempstead
counties, the Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire this evening.
Elsewhere, the Advisory has been extended through tomorrow evening
for heat indices up to 109 degrees.

Beyond tomorrow night, our conditionally unstable pattern remains in
play, with periodic rounds of showers and storms primarily across
our north and east, but timing and coverage specifics will be driven
by the position, extent and strength of the high over the desert
southwest, and as such are very much in flux. As of this writing, a
few storms are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday, followed by
dry conditions Tuesday and returning rain north and east Wednesday
into Thursday. Showers and storms across our south will be possible
Friday with a warm and dry weekend to follow. This heat wave will
continue through the middle of the week, with long range guidance
giving us a bit of a "cool down" in the form of more highs in the
90s than in the triple digits by the end of this extended forecast
period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the 24/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this evening as
isolated convection in our southern airspace continues to slowly
wind down over the next few hours. Mid and high level convective
debris clouds will linger overnight, and expect some cu/altocu to
gradually develop and expand across our eastern airspace on Monday
with the next disturbance diving south from the Ozarks across AR
and into NE LA. Therefore, have inserted VCTS at KELD/KMLU later
in the period on Monday while our remaining sites should largely
stay clear of any convection. Otherwise, light and variable winds
overnight will trend more S/SW on Monday between 6-12 kts and some
higher gusts possible across our East TX terminals.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
isolated strong storms that may produce locally gusty winds across
portions of East Texas and North Louisiana south of I-20. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 103  80 101 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  77 100  77  99 /   0  30  20  20
DEQ  73 101  73 103 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  77 101  77 101 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  75  98  75 100 /   0  30  30  10
TYR  81 105  79 103 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  79 106  79 104 /   0   0  20  10
LFK  77 103  77 100 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-059-070-071.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061-072-
     073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19