


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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138 FXUS64 KSHV 151908 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 208 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Above average highs and warming lows will continue into the weekend under the ridge and in the absence of needed rainfall. - Saturday and Sunday will be the days some of that much needed rainfall will be moving into and across our Four-State area. - - Slightly cooler behind this cool front will bring highs down briefly with lows seeing the best change for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The upper level ridge core has peaked now and remains over the Natural State for the short term with a drift to the SE for Thursday and then setting up over the SE U.S. and mid Atlantic states for Friday and Saturday. The surface high will be moving as well under the ridge, shifting from the Great Lakes states into New England and the mid Atlantic during this same time frame. This will mean our winds will be shifting back to SE and S and eventually SW ahead of the front for Saturday. Highs will continue around mid 80s to 90 degrees, but lows will see the warm up with 60s to even low 70s to start the weekend. Along with the warmer air comes better moisture content and this is the primary factor we have not seen lately. So pattern change is underway for this lingering drought anyway. We will be see another chance for rainfall by Tuesday as another air mass moves our way. However, the first cool front will be arriving overnight Saturday into Sunday with a 1020mb air mass with the bulk of rain. We can look forward to a good cool down on our highs with NW winds back for Sunday. And as always, the clearing skies will be along for the new work week with more chilly widespread 50s for lows, which is normal for mid to late October. The chance for severe thunderstorms remains, but timing may help decrease the coverage. The day 4 outlook from the SPC anticipates a Slight Risk for much of our Four-State, and mainly for late Saturday arrivals into SE OK and NE TX and the continued push to the SE down I-49 during the overnight. The GFS and EWMWF are still working on the best solution, but both are trending in the same direction for needed rainfall during the more stable overnight time frame. As for rainfall totals, the WPC QPF outlook has better than 1" totals possible along and east of I-49 with ERO risks just up a bit farther to our NE. So, the chance for needed rainfall still looks good for the overnight especially and then ending during early Sunday and just 1/4 to 1/2" amounts over deep east Texas. The secondary 1017mb airmass for Tuesday will have some moisture, but mainly along and east of I-49 for the better numbers for this additional rainfall expected. /24/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 For the 15/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the period once again as high pressure remains almost directly aloft with some isolated FEW250 decks and light easterly surface winds. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 61 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 58 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 56 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 58 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 55 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 60 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 58 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 59 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...16