335
FXUS64 KSHV 011509
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
909 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Freezing rainfall is likely with any precipitation near the
   Ouachita Mountains.

 - Temperatures will briefly return to near-normal by Wednesday,
   before remaining below-normal with precipitation through the
   rest of the week.

 - The next round of precipitation returns by the middle of this
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Radar trends are bringing isolated thunderstorms in for Tyler and
Longview and we have updated these zones and included downstream
Texarkana and Shreveport/Bossier through the noon hour for now.
New NBM forecast data will bring the next issuance in before noon.
No changes to our Winter WX Advisory as some of the heavier
elements may facilitate better wet bulbing with Idabel now
saturated, but farther north in McCurtain and over into SW AR, we
see a good 5 degree spread with air still right above freezing for
most of our area. /24/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Isentropic upglide is and will be the main weather producer for
the Ark-La-Tex over the next 24 hours. In the process of this
activity, shallow cold air will boost the probability of freezing
rain near the Ouachita Mountains, prompting issuance of the Winter
Weather Advisory. There is some potential for a temporal extension
of this product Temperature maximums will not climb much into the
40s before falling back into minimums in the 20s-30s at the
coldest on Monday night before rebounding back to near- normal by
mid- week. Long- range guidance shows the wet pattern continuing
with yet another trough traversing the Intermountain West, exiting
to a confluence of Pacific moisture for precipitation returning
by late Wednesday through most of the rest of the week. Frontal
passage by Saturday will introduce the next reprieve from rainfall
through the next weekend. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

For the 01/12Z TAFs, patchy areas of precipitation have begun to
move into area airspace and will increase in coverage throughout
the day. Flight categories have deteriorated as anticipated and
further deterioration to MVFR levels is expected as precip impacts
develop. Areas of freezing rain remain possible across our
northern airspace, with significant impacts to terminals not
expected. That being said, KTXK and KELD may see very brief
frozen precipitation this morning. Northeast winds will continue
at speeds of 5 to 10 kts, becoming lighter as this forecast period
continues. A few gusts of up to 20 kts remain possible early in
the period.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 828 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time but may be needed
on Monday morning with precipitation returning, possibly in the
form of a brief wintry mix over northern portions of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  32  50  33 /  60  50   0   0
MLU  41  30  47  28 /  80  80   0   0
DEQ  37  23  47  26 /  50  20   0   0
TXK  37  28  47  30 /  50  30   0   0
ELD  36  25  44  25 /  70  60   0   0
TYR  42  30  50  36 /  40  30   0   0
GGG  41  29  50  32 /  50  40   0   0
LFK  45  31  52  33 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ050-051-060-
     061.

LA...None.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26